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danm

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Posts posted by danm

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, B87 said:

    No we won't. I don't think we will have anything seasonal until maybe August/September.

    We only really had hot summers in 2018 and 2022 in recent years. 

    We’ve had several hot blasts in recent years, not just 2018 and 2022. Those two summers were exceptional. 

    The number of 35c+ days has increased significantly over the last 5 or 6 years. 

    • Thanks 1

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

    The cough silver lining of this though is by the time this is over the Atlantic would've had over half a consecutive year of high cyclonic activity and there is now a noticeable cold blob in the west Atlantic, so once the affects of the SSW start wearing off, those highs should begin to reach us quite eagerly, so there is at least a plausible hope that the second half of the year might be notably dry, sunny and probably very warm to hot.

    Let's hope so. 

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by danm

    51 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

    There is no "usually" about it, there have been plenty of times when we've had these conditions in late April and colder. April is a chaotic month with no "should be", it can be below freezing overnight and snowing or 29°C at this time of year, and anything inbetween.

    I agree, there is no "should be". An average is an average, sometimes colder, sometimes warmer. The problem isn't so much the temperatures - we've had cold spells in April before - it's the persistence of the duller and wetter than average weather that's the main problem. We just can't seem to get a stretch of dry and sunny weather at the moment. I accept that in late Autumn and winter, it's what the weather is like at that time of year, but by now you'd hope we would get something more consistently dry and sunny. The SSW definitely put a wrench in things and hasn't helped. I dreaded the talk at the end of Feb of an imminent SSW, knowing this would be the exact result of it. Not snowy mid March nirvana as many on the Mod thread were hoping for, but a perpetuating northern blocking pattern, shunting troughs into the mid latitudes giving us dull and damp weather. 

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, B87 said:

    Here's an absolute joke of a forecast going into May. Extreme dullness, wet and only a handful of days approaching average. Will feel more like October than May with the complete lack of sun.

    Considering the May average is about 18c for London, temperature wise we look OK next week according to this with 17c to 19c. The problem is it also looks pretty unsettled...

    Screenshot2024-04-25at14_19_53.thumb.png.6317844a9cef2813a341d30d5ee48f70.png

    • Insightful 1

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, MP-R said:

    We'll have to agree to disagree then, but it's a well known issue. Same in summer. High pressure but with cool upper air often sees infill problems. When the upper air warms up with pressure still high, you'll often get cloudless conditions.

    The reason i'm arguing against that is we can get brilliant sunshine under a high in mid winter with cold upper air. 

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    Sure, the centre was, but pressure was still very high over most of the UK. We need to get rid of the cold upper air. The weekend's set up with 850s of say 5-10 would've been much sunnier nationwide.

    Yeh i don't think upper air temps had anything to do with the cloud, that was more to do with the positioning of the high. 

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, danm said:

    the high was centred over western Ireland so here in the east and over much of mainland UK in fact, we were on the eastern edge of the high, where pressure was lower. Not to mention an onshore breeze off the North Sea. You can have cold upper air temperatures too and brilliant sunshine, so long as pressure is high enough to kill off cloud formation and also not having an onshore breeze dragging in low cloud. 

    Adding to this, our issue is also being surrounded on water on all sides. The only way to get crystal clear blue skies in this county is if a high is slap bang over us with 1025-1030mb pressure, or having a SE’erly airflow from off the near continent which drags in dry air, or from a northerly airstream in mid winter as we had in Jan. 

    It’s much easier in continental locations as low cloud getting dragged in off a cold sea is much less of an issue. 

    1 minute ago, SunnyG said:

    Looks like we are getting a repeat of last year's weather but worse than last year's. What decent weather there will be, it's going to be in the west and we here in the east will get cold cloudy weather for the foreseeable. There are zero signs it's gonna change in May.

    It’s not looking particularly good in the west either. 

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

     MP-R the high was centred over western Ireland so here in the east and over much of mainland UK in fact, we were on the eastern edge of the high, where pressure was lower. Not to mention an onshore breeze off the North Sea. You can have cold upper air temperatures too and brilliant sunshine, so long as pressure is high enough to kill off cloud formation and also not having an onshore breeze dragging in low cloud. 

    • Like 2

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

    2 / 3 hours of sun this morning and now in comes the cloud, like clockwork. No doubt it'll all clear again this evening after dinner-tine lol.

    We genuinely need the starts to align in this country to get an actually sunny, or even mostly sunny day. Utterly infuriating.

    ...we just need higher pressure. Things like infill, or clouding over, or afternoon showers will keep happening whilst we have relatively low pressure in charge. We need a solid high at or above 1025-1030mb. We haven't had that for any length of time since early January. 

    • Thanks 1

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    41 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

    I've saved a screenshot shot of B87's calculation table for future reference. Very useful. I'm thinking a lot of the ongoing discussions about sunshine over the years, may have been unintentionally misleading and pessimistic because of this discrepancy. I'd say this topic needs bringing to the forefront from time to time, to remind people of the adjustments, and to check their sources of information for raw or adjusted data, where that is possible. 

    Yes exactly, I just don’t understand why the Met Office only publish the raw figures but not the corrected ones. Without that calculation you can never really know the exact actual sunshine hours for a particular location, unless you look at the anomaly maps which give a percentage range. 

    • Like 1

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by danm

    55 minutes ago, B87 said:

    They do, but only on the maps. They should have the actual values available without having to FoI request them.

    They really should release the actual figures. The raw numbers that are displayed on their own website plus others like meteociel and weather online are wrong and misleading. Still don’t understand why they don’t, considering they show the actual ranges on the anomaly maps. 

    • Like 2
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