[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Alderc 2.0 yep but this weekend was never banked as one with good weather? It was always looking iffy. Next week has been showing for some time now settling down. Hopefully it does. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Tomorrow looking like another decent day across central and eastern areas. Should get up to between 16c and 19c in some spots.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The weekend is looking unsettled on the GFS, but Monday afternoon onwards again showing a very decent build of high pressure across the country:

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 In Absence of True Seasons yep the blue is crystal clear today. Been a while since it's been this clear. 

[Spring 2024]

21 hours ago, raz.org.rain said:

Winters would observe a colder and drier trend whereas summers would be considerably drier and hotter.

Sounds good to me! 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 B87 got ya! Makes sense

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Just now, B87 said:

What is the difference between mostly sunny and partly cloudy? Don't they mean the same thing?

Semantics I suppose. When someone says partly cloudy, I think mostly cloud with some sunny breaks. Mostly sunny is the opposite. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 *Stormforce~beka* yep definitely no partly cloudy here. Wall to wall sunshine at the mo.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

16 minutes ago, B87 said:

partly cloudy skies

I'd say mostly sunny, rather than partly cloudy. Currently, and for most of the day, I'd say about 75-80% blue sky, 15-20% fluffy fair weather cloud. 

 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Can’t really complain with the weather today. A bit of a breeze but loads of sunshine and feeling warm. 17c currently. 
 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

16c currently with lots of long sunny spells. A little breezy but definitely feels much warmer in the sun today. 
 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 ANYWEATHER no one said it was guaranteed? Just commenting on what the models are showing. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 ANYWEATHER Days 7 and 8 on the models this morning. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Next week still looking good on the morning output. This coming weekend never had any cross model agreement for fine, settled weather. 

Day 7 onwards on the GFS looks increasingly good:

 

ECM also shows a strong pressure build starting to appear from overnight next Monday onwards:

 

GEM very similar:

 

GFS mean for the middle of next week:

 

ECM mean for a similar timeframe:

[Moans, ramps and banter]

1 minute ago, SunnyG said:

evidence on my side

Tea leaves? I have no idea what the weather will be like this Summer, neither do you. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

1 minute ago, SunnyG said:

It's just not gonna happen this spring and maybe not even into summer, so we better get used to it.

1 minute ago, SunnyG said:

It's always next week isn't it.

Unless you were expecting some miraculous short term upgrades for the next few days, then yes. It was always meant to be next week. Fingers crossed it happens. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Bit confused by a couple of posts in here this morning. This week was always meant to be unsettled, a mix of sunshine, heavy showers, some longer spells of rain, and warmer. This weekend was never set in stone for dry, settled weather. We had a couple of ECM Op runs that showed that, but there was never cross model agreement. However, there has been a strong signal across the models for a little while now that NEXT week will see pressure building, and that is still the case this morning:

GFS:

 

ECM:

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Lovely morning, lots of sunshine. Should warm up nicely to about 18c this afternoon. 
 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

1 hour ago, B87 said:

I feel that May will be duller than average, though it can't be worse than this April.

There’s literally no way to know.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 B87 luckily sunshine now doesn’t stop it from appearing in May! I’ll take both. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

1 minute ago, B87 said:

Yes, but tomorrow is a one off. We have to wait a while still for it to be stable 6-8 hours of sun a day with average or above temps.

Yep but small victories, we have to start somewhere. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

32 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, June 2013 was the final month of that sustained cold period with January to June all coming in below the 1961-90 average. Imagine the prospects of that happening now?!  It flipped spectacularly after the opening days of July.

Pretty incredible that, every month from Jan to June 2013 being below average, significantly so in some months.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 B87 looks like we’ll get some decent sunshine and 17c/18c tomorrow. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Alderc 2.0 ECM looks cracking into early next week though. The weekend was always more of a Q mark due to model disagreements. 
 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

I think it’s to be expected that people are moaning (in the moans thread after all) because we’ve been through an exceptionally wet 18 month spell.

Compounding that is that peak Summer last year (July to mid August) was so poor. I think many people here would be less peeved if the copious rainfall over the last 18 months was reserved for the Autumn and Winter months, but we’ve had that plus a wet and dull mid Summer period, off the back of a chilly and at times wet, dull Spring last year (barring the end of May). 

However, things will change, so I don’t have patience for people who say “this Summer will be poor because the last 18 months have been poor”. One does not equate to the other. Things can change very quickly. It’s already looking like next weekend and the following week could bring some warmth and sunshine.