Penrith Snow

This winter seems to be giving us the worst of all worlds! No snow or proper cold just an annoying 'faux cold' that ensures our heating bills stay high despite the nearest snow being 1000 miles away. At least under a mild South westerly I can save a few quid or travel to Spain for some winter sun, however, with the high in its current location Iberia has loads of surface cold as well with harsh frosts even near the coast. Meanwhile the US as usual gets loads of winter fun and this week even the Greeks will join in. It's all bloody pants. Andy

You know that the UK is a depressing place to live when people are happy with a few air frosts in January. Is this what we have become Andy

At least when it's zonal the weather can be interesting with deep lows and the odd North westerly incursion behind. This is zombie weather, dawn of the dead. Andy

Yes expect an Athens Snowfall Special some time in the next 10 days just to rub salt into our festering wounds As for our high pressure experience tells us it will eventually sink, having said that if it holds on to late January a northward movement as the PV undergoes its seasonal weakenening can not be ruled out. In the meantime the Boredomometer is as high as the pressure! Andy

Yes it has and just shows what a load of nonsense that measure is for gauging the liklihood of HLB. Over the past 20 years of Internet weather watching we have seen many winter weather forecast fads come and go and most of them were just useless tools, the MJO is just the latest. I liked the one we had in the 1980's called the BDC, it stood for Bloody Damn Cold! Andy

That 10 day+ mean is a shocker with the PV slowly draining from Russia back to Canada, it can spell only one thing a return to westerlies late January after a period of high pressure. So disappointing but you can see from this where the MetO are getting their MRF from. It's going to be a long month. Andy

45 days snow lying down to 15, that really is pants, the whole of Europe has been dominated by mild winters for the past 30 years whereas the US at the same latitude has not been affected in anywhere near the same way.

This is a really good point, it is highly unusual even unprecedented that a very mild first half of winter (which this is) is followed by a cold second half. Winter 1946/47 had several notable cold spells prior to the big freeze, on the 7th January many areas were swept by blizzards as Atlantic fronts came up against the block. The BFTE in 2018 was preceeded by a generally cold winter, the cold February of 1986 was preceeded by several January cold spells including a 15cms snowfall in Birmingham on the 6th. The cold spells of February 1978 followed several in January........I could go on. The chances of a notable second half of winter cold spell following a very mild first half is exceptionally low, we have to be realistic. Andy

Who cares which models looks alike they are all bloody ugly! Terrible which ever you choose.

This winters tendancy for intense high pressure cells to establish themselves over Iberia and Biscay (two so far and one on the way) remind me very much of winters 1988/89 and 1997/98. Such synoptics bring repeated spells of exceptionally mild weather with just the briefest of colder conditions between each cell growing and contracting. These really are Winter Killer charts, no amount of hope casting can change that. Andy

Remarkable improvement in the model output compared to just 2 days ago with rapid decline in Iberia Heights and southward moving jet stream. Cold zonality is a difficult thing to achieve even up north but Atlantic fronts trapped in cold polar air is going to provide much interest next week. After the crud of the post few days things are looking better. Andy

After viewing this mornings models may I suggest we change the title of this thread to 'Model Output Discussion: Hunt for Gold' as the finding of this would prove far easier! Andy

TBH I will settle for a Two Day Toppler and more mobile pattern over the near death weather we have at the moment. It literally couldn't be any worse. Cold zonality will be fine and it's worth noting that GFS ensembles are trending below average next week which in early January means fairly cold. After this weeks mild shocker it's all a big improvement. Andy

Today just sums up a typical modern British winters day. No sun No rain No snow No wind No frost Just a miserable damp greyness smothering the landscape, this is what the universe must have been like before the Big bang. To quote Robert Falcon Scott "Great God! This is an awful place" Andy

Hi Tamara i feel your joy, having recently moved to South East Spain I like nothing more than a intense Iberia High in late winter. January/February 2020 brought many such spells and I remember many Winter BBQs with the temperature touching 23c I always return to the UK for 6 weeks over Christmas hoping to see some snow but as usual the weather has other ideas. What’s worse is that I now have Covid so can’t return to Spain to enjoy the warm sunshine, stuck here instead looking at charts that are a UK Nightmare but a Spanish dream. I used to love UK winters and the hunt for snow but now the hunt is futile and I can’t stand the mildness, wet and darkness of a now typical UK winter. Enjoy the Bartlett! Feliz Navidad

Lol, you know the game is up when someone mentions the mild weather before the 1947 big freeze!

I have known many cold spell let downs before but never one that totally removed the spell within 72 hours, normally they are watered down not removed all together! It wasn't just Netweather members taken in either, the best forecasting organisation in the world, the UK MetO was also on board. Not sure where we go from here but I have to say I am not optimistic with a big build of pressure over Iberia and the collapse of Northern heights. Uncle Barty might not have made it for Christmas but he seems determined to come for New Year Andy

While the models all now agree on a cold spell after Christmas the New Year concerns me as both GFS and ECM rapidly build pressure over Iberia by New Years Eve. This has been a persistent theme in recent days. A long way off I know but high pressure over Iberia is a winter killer. One to watch. Andy

Chrrrrŕist! I think we have a new contender for 'That ECM', let's hope it doesn't go the same way as the December 2012 version.Andy

I fear you maybe correct as this has happened numerous times in recent years and results in the much hated Athens snowfall special Andy

A turd on your door step for a day is still a turd, likewise with a Bartlett and we all know how long a Bartlett can stay around once it's sat on your door step!

Yes, I remember it too, an extended period of anticyclonic gloom that was followed by a miserable mild winter. The model outlook is poor no doubt about it, let's just hope the favourable background signals bring us something better for Christmas.

I think the problem is we have all been here before and a reinvigorated PV in early December is not good news.

ECM should be renamed GPM 'Garden Path Model'. Soooo often it brings us ghost cold spells only to collapse them within hours. From Snow Armageddon to Bartlett Heaven with 24 hours. Hopefully the background signals will bring us better charts by mid month but after a promising start its all a bit disappointing. Andy

Nice looking Fax chart update for Sunday with one high pressure cell over Finland and another to the East of Iceland, and with low pressure across Northern Europe the UK is in a cold North easterly flow, from here it looks to me like next weeks deep low will go south. It's worth bearing in mind you don't need 1060mb Scandy Highs to maintain an Easterly, December 1981 saw weak high pressure across Scandinavia ward off many Atlantic assaults which just produced frontal snowfalls. Just saying Andy