Penrith Snow

I am also suspect of teleconnections because if you look hard enough you will find patterns and effects in anything. My Cat often goes moody when the MJO is in phrase 6-7, but that doesn't prove cause and effect! Anyway, back to the models and height rises to the south seem likely as we head towards December, periods of intense zonality often end which high pressure building across Iberia. Look on the bright side at least the US is having a great start to winter with record snow in NY state. The wheels on the bus go round and round. Andy

Ecm and Gfs hint at rising pressure after day 10 but rising from the south not the north. I fear any rise in pressure will just put us back to where we were last week with high pressure over the near continent and warm southerlies across the UK. Andy

2013 snowier than 2018? I am surprised, 2013 was a bust in East Cumbria with the frequent easterlies delivering little lying snow. 2018 delivered several snowfalls in January and February even before the ‘Beast’ arrived which then brought the best blizzard conditions I have ever seen. Just shows how localised a snowy winter can be. Andy

Thanks for that, so a mid range station really. Will be interesting to see how the temperature shield copes with the strong Spanish sun. I have my doubts. Andy

AMET have installed this weather station near my holiday home in Spain. Does anyone know what station it is? Anyone got experience of its reliability? Cheers Andy

Shaping up to be a typical NH winter, repeated cold plunges in the US, blocking high over Eastern Europe, south westerlies or Bartlett’s in the UK and the occasional Athens snowfall special

Several stations recorded highs of nearly 19c in Cumbria this afternoon. Crazy for a location so far north. This was the scene in Keswick at 2pm, temperature 18.4c

That is very true, despite the mildness of winters 1998 to 2008 I saw snow at Xmas (Christmas Eve, Christmas Day or Boxing Day) in 1998, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005. Ok it never really settled to any great extent apart from 2000 but the Xmas period was characterised by cold weather nevertheless. Christmas’s from 1982 to 1990 were completely snowless and often mild Andy

First half of December 1990 was fairly cold including the Great Birmingham Blizzard on the 8th. January brought widespread snow to the north during the second week so like 2018 cold weather late in winter was preceded by snowy spells earlier on.

That's pretty much what the ECM is showing at 240hrs with the high migrating to North Scandinavia and very cold air on its Eastern flank sweeping down across the far east of Europe and western Russia. Wouldn't be good for Ukraine. Andy

I agree, however, the depth of upper warmth being projected is off the scale. But, those high 850's may not translate to warmth at the surface and we could easily end up with cold, foggy conditions in low lying towns while the high Fells (above an inversion) have temperatures above 15c, I have experienced this several times in recent years. Andy

Mid November BBQ if this mornings ECM 240 is correct, the isobars over southern England trace all the way back to the central Sahara! We have seen some crazy warm synoptics this autumn associated with the Euro block it never ends. I remember autumn 1978 which was warm and dry right up to mid November, then suddenly on the 23rd the Iberian block collapsed and a cold front swept east across the UK, temperatures fell by 10c with frost and wintry showers, the rest as they say is history. Andy

Helvellyn would need to be 6000 feet high to have received snow this month!

A lot of talk about climate change preventing a cold winter but really? Is the Earth really that much warmer in October 2022 than it was in October 2009 or 2010? Just saying..... Andy

I think the problem we will face this winter will be the enormous semi permanent belt of high pressure over the Balkans, this feature becomes more prominent every year and maybe a linked to El Nina recently. With high pressure over SE Europe you can forget easterlies and cold could only come from the north. The Azores High is usually our nemesis in winter but this year the Balkan Blob could be the real killer. Andy

I am hoping to go to Chamonix in the French Alps next month to see some early snow but have just looked at the forecast and next Thursday the temperature at 3,000 feet is forecast to be 22c! Won't be much snow at that temperature but I might get a tan. Surely temperatures like that will be record breaking for late October and doesn't bode well for the coming winter Andy

I used to like autumn with its crisp days and promise of winter wonders to come even if it mostly failed to live up to expectations, but these days autumn seems more like a bad summer with endless days of southerly winds bringing cloud and warm rain. That's why I decided several years ago that my autumn's in retirement would be spent in southern Spain where summer proper holds on till late November. I strongly recommend it. Andy

In recent winters we have become used to big high pressure slugs over Europe but the one now growing over Europe is a monster! Looking at the ECM beyond 144 and If you use the 1020mb isobar, one high pressure now extends from Northern Norway to within a few hundred miles of the equator, that's a block affecting a whole section of the globe. I don't think I have ever seen anything like it? If this is a sign of the winter to come then we will be lucky to see frost never mind snow. Andy

Wow, look at that Euro high slug on the ECM 240, it stretches from Morocco to Finland, that must be 4000 miles!

Evocative, Really? I decided years ago that late October/ early November is the most depressing time of year in the UK, that's why I now spend this period in Southern Spain where 25c is the average daily max. Love cold and snow but I am too old for miserable, mild and wet.

Thanks for these, the Guardian article makes sense now with a cold December and mild February the preferred outcome. Got to say the December anomaly is good with the highest relative pressure south of Iceland, just where we want it. If we could get just one cold, frosty, snowy month I would be happy. All eyes on the October update. Andy

OK, I am really confused now for The Guardian is reporting that its the ECM Seasonal model that is forecasting a cold early winter in Europe due to El Nina, yet the ECM seasonal forecasts I have seen indicate a mild winter across the whole continent. I suppose a cold December could be over compensated by a mild February and January? If correct I would be happy as I don't mind a mild late winter if early winter is cold, after last year New Years BBQ I would be glad of a cold Xmas period. You can read the whole article free on the Guardian website. Andy Andy

Expectations for this coming winter are now so low that a few wintry showers in January will be a cause for joy! Not sure we can blame it all on El nina for as the author says in this article we are a long way from the source. Strange that in a number of todays papers it is reported that the Government is worried about gas rationing after forecasts of an 'unusually cold, dry European winter', not sure what forecasts they are looking at! Andy

Very cold air leaving Canada is going to result in explosive depressions forming over these waters then heading to Europe, yes the track might be further south but surely a wet winter is a dead cert? Then again as someone said high SSTs support high pressure but I still think a wet winter is now very likely. Andy

For what it's worth, summer 1976 was similar to 2022 and September/October 1976 were exceptionally wet and thundery with high SSTs. November 1976 was pretty average but cold weather arrived in early December and persisted untill, early February with several notable snowfalls. Winter 1976/77 was a cold, snowy one and the first cold winter for 6 years. Would be nice to think that history would repeat itself Andy