Penrith Snow

To be honest the high will not be clear and frosty, more likely cloudy and misty with near average temperatures. The position of the high will quickly allow moist cloudy conditions to filter in off the Atlantic, better for heating bills but very miserable.

Not much change on this mornings GFS with a strong uk high meandering about bringing anticyclonic gloom to us and a Greek Snowfall Special for Athens. The high does migrate North in FI but with any cold a long way east. Andy

Tuesday morning saw temperatures at -8c in Carlisle and -9c near Penrith, helped of course by the snow cover. With more cloud Wednesday morning wasn't as cold with minimums around -2c Andy

The snowfall here this week has been bitter/sweat, on the one hand it was a lovely dry snowfall of 7cms followed by severe frost and sunshine which was great, but then it reminds me of what uk winters used to be like and how I miss them. Before this week I have to go back to the BFTE in 2018 to find a snowfall that lasted more than 24 hours, that was 5 years ago! I live at over 400feet in Northern England at the same latitude as Nova Scotia but winters now resemble the coast of South West Ireland. Depressing. Andy

I know it might change tomorrow but the ECM+240 is a peach with deep cold across the whole of mainland Europe just waiting for the UK high to move NW. I hate the word Potential but I make an exception with that chart. Andy

We have to be realistic and expect a westerly February which to be honest all the seasonal models predicted in late Autumn. Linked of course to the El Nina signal. The consensus was for a front loaded winter and in some respects we have had that with a cold December and our current cold spell If it’s mild now from Saturday to early March this winter will still have been better than many in recent years. Andy

How do you like your Drizzle heavy or light? Awful chart with the -10 uppers almost off the chart over central Russia

Baby Beast? Looks more like a Mediterranean Snowfall Special

Sorry guys it's not often Cumbria gets more snow than the North East so I just had to post a couple more photos from this morning, temperature still -1.3c despite the sunshine. No doubt the North East will have its snow revenge soon enough Andy

For once East Cumbria in the sweat spot last night. Heavy snow between 4am-6am, 6-7cms lying this morning with temperature of -2.6c.

First significant snow since November 2021 here, 2cms and still falling heavily, area of snow now covers large part of Cumbria and Northumberland moving slowly SE Andy

Classic Bartlet High on the ECM +240, Paul would be proud of that one Nothing is ever set in stone but it's a long way back from some of tonight's output in the medium term and what is that I hear in the background......a ticking clock Andy

I think there is too much emphasis put on SSWs, winters were often cold and snowy between 1962 and 1987 but very few had SSW’s. This emphasis on SSW is all down to the link identified with the BFTE in 2018 but the Trop that winter was already set up for HLB hence the cold spells well before the SSW occurred This winter is very different and with the El Nina signal of positive AO and NAO late winter I really don’t expect a notable cold spell in February Andy Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98196-model-output-discussion-new-year-and-beyond/?do=findComment&comment=4789734

I think there is too much emphasis put on SSWs, winters were often cold and snowy between 1962 and 1987 but very few had SSW’s. This emphasis on SSW is all down to the link identified with the BFTE in 2018 but the Trop that winter was already set up for HLB hence the cold spells well before the SSW occurred This winter is very different and with the El Nina signal of positive AO and NAO late winter I really don’t expect a notable cold spell in February Andy

Yes classic reload chart and note low pressure in the Mediterranean centred over Corsica, big changes from early January.

Wow, the 528dam line is a long way south. That occlusion over Nortgern England will be interesting

A link between solar activity and weather in the NH has never been proven but I have seen the effects too many times over the years for it to be coincidence.

Great update from Exeter especially for the north, must be looking to their own model and EC while binning GFS Game on Andy

I am liking this mornings models as early next week could be interesting. ok it won’t be very cold but cold enough for snow up north (-8c uppers on UKMO) and with plenty of frontal activity snow opportunities are plenty and much better than Decembers deep dry freeze It might only last a few days but at the moment I’ll take it. Not so good for the Home Counties maybe but come on guys you had the classic snowfall to sunshine last month so sure you won’t mind us northerners getting a flake or two. Andy

When you think about it the weather reflects the current state of Broken Britain. At least the last Winter of Discontent in 1979 brought endless snow frost and sunshine. Let's hope the upcoming PM shot is the start of something better. Andy

Don't be concerned yet about the MetO update, they are often well behind the curve when change is coming. Pre Christmas they were still predicting a cold wintry New Year when the models had well and truly turned against it. The next few days will be crucial in firming up on any coldish spell later in January although TBH I am expecting cold North Westerly shots at best with no real sign of embedded cold. However, at the moment some cold zonality would be a dream compared to the dross of recent weeks. Andy

Trouble is I am sure it was GFS that modelled correctly the collapse of the pre Christmas cold spell and sudden rise in Iberian heights? It often seems the case that the model that gives us the mildest outcome is the correct one! The cold Post day 7 on EC looks nice with -8c uppers and low pressure but getting all those shortwave to line up correctly is like getting a line of 6 strawberries on a gambling machine! Andy

On tonight's 120h fax chart the 528dam line pushes into the North West of the UK, heralding the arrival of cold zonality. It's a start of something more seasonal hopefully Andy

Oh yes, still my best ever blizzard, lived in South Birmingham at the time and measured 36cms of level snow and drifts over a metre, temperature never rose above -3c during the entire 18 hour storm. Andy

Yes better looking cold zonal charts but if I remember these were being shown a week ago only for the idea to turn to dust. I will want to see the pattern maintained into next week before I get the bunting out. Andy