Penrith Snow

Great realistic post that sums up our current situation. I feel our best chance is for some PM or even Northerly spells later in the month and more so in February as the strong westerlies weaken slightly. Forget Scandy Highs, it ain’t going to happen. Andy

That in a nutshell is the problem and will be for a long time to come

Got to say things looking a bit better as we head into January and lose those dreadful euro heights. OK cool zonal won’t bring much snow but so much better than quiet mild anticyclonic weather that dominated last January. North Westerlies can deliver even in the south and at the moment are our only option going forward. Did you know the great January 1987 freeze was born out of a north westerly? Yes look it up Andy

Both ECM and GFS operational bring in a cold zonal flow with very low heights at +240, indeed both charts are remarkably similar given they are 10 days away. Certainly hinting that high pressure will transfer to the Azores rather than be over the Mediterranean which should allow PM air to move south, all speculative of course but at least cold zonal is more interesting than endless mild south westerlies. Andy

If its any consolation the Apls are having it even milder with many resorts shutting down due to a rapid thaw below 4000 feet, the hills around Chaminox in southern France are Green with the snowline retreating to nearly 5000 feet. Imagine paying big money to stop at an expensive hotel in Chamonix over New Year just to see it rain outside! As others have said no meaningful improvement will occur until heights lower over southern Europe, to be honest this week synoptics of massive southern European highs just didn't happen in the 1960's, even the Bartlett High of the 2000s weren't as extensive as the horror we are currently looking at. The underlying cause of such strong pressure anomalies is one for the professionals but for cold weather in the uk it is a killer. Andy

Could you post a link to the site that holds these historic satellite photos. Cheers, Andy

What date was that in March 2013? Only had one day of lying snow that month so that photo must have been on that day! Andy

Truly remarkable that the Xmas weather will turn out to resemble an extreme mild GFS outlier from a few days ago! Just goes to show in Britain the mild option is always the one that wins. As others have said its the Iberian High that scuppered things, this wasn't forecast, in late November AMET the Spanish Met Service were confident in predicting a very wet December to help alleviate the drought. Its been anything but and with a record warm Christmas forecast with temperatures of 24c in Benidorm its all gone horribly wrong for them and us. I will be going back to Spain in January and for the second year will have seen no lying snow in the UK, the recent cold spell having delivered nothing apart from a large gas bill! Andy

Yes of course, US in the Freezer, Western Europe in the Sauna and a Athens Snowfall Special, 21st Century Winters are soooo predictable! Andy

To get the daily mean temperature you just add the maximum and minimum together and divide by 2. This is then added together and divided by the days in the month to get the monthly mean. Andy

Paul Bartlett would be proud of that! RIP Paul. I remember reading that Paul was slightly annoyed that he will be remembered for the Bartlett High as he was a cold lover and ramper. The original Bartlett was christened in February 1998 and the term has stuck since. Uncle Barty is to me a funny take on Paul’s original creation Andy

The whole set up reminds me very much of the Christmas period in 1978, then as now a mid month cold spell relaxed just before Xmas as mild air swept north, a pronounced temperature boundary then developed over Scotland with a sausage shaped low pressure separating the air masses. Eventually towards New Year the cold air moved slowly south bringing heavy snow to Scotland, by New Years Eve the cold was across the UK and a Channel runner gave Blizzard conditions in the South. Interesting that a Iberian High was also evident throughout the period. Andy Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98087-model-output-discussion-the-cold-has-arrived/?do=findComment&comment=4772503

The whole set up reminds me very much of the Christmas period in 1978, then as now a mid month cold spell relaxed just before Xmas as mild air swept north, a pronounced temperature boundary then developed over Scotland with a sausage shaped low pressure separating the air masses. Eventually towards New Year the cold air moved slowly south bringing heavy snow to Scotland, by New Years Eve the cold was across the UK and a Channel runner gave Blizzard conditions in the South. Interesting that a Iberian High was also evident throughout the period. Andy

1040mb high over Greenland and we still end up under South Westerlies

With daytime high temps around -1c and overnight lows around -6c I have a mean temperature of -3.7c for the last 7 days. That makes it the coldest week since December 2010 and the third coldest week since 1987 in my location. However, in 50 years of records I can't find a week with a mean temperature below -2c that didn't have a snow cover! In East Cumbria this spell has been exceptionally cold but totally devoid of snow, highly unusual Andy

Does John Hammond from the MetO know something we dont? He is on GB News saying the mild blip this weekend will be swept away next week to be followed by a Arctic plunge before Christmas. Wow what a ramper! Andy

Sorry not model related but anyone got a link to this mornings UK satellite photo, will be interesting to see under clear skies which parts of the UK have snow cover. This spell should prove once and for all the saying Get the cold in first and the snow will follow, who would have guessed the amount of snow that would fall from this spell in the places that rarely see it? Looking at the charts last Friday who would have forecasted Stansted and Manchester Airports would be closed by snow but not Newcastle. Not a flake here but remarkable period nevertheless Andy

Wow, that's a surprise most of the UK still below -6c uppers

Unfortunately, that's correct and ECM ensembles spread are remarkably tight in the 8 to10 day period, we are going to need something special to prevent a slow warm up next weekend. For the moment I will ignore GEM that has sent Uncle Barty an invitation for Christmas. Andy

I love the fact we can call the GFS run poor when it's showing a 8 day very cold spell with snow potential. Those down south must be licking their lips looking at the MetO 144. Fantastic output after yesterday's mediocre offerings. Andy

Very cold GFS right up to +198 which is way beyond FI, little snow on the run but surprises still possible. MetO has a real 1960's southern blizzard in 7 days which may or may not verify but we haven't seen a chart like that since Storm Emma in 2018. Let's hope ECM continues the theme but upgrades by keeping the cold in FI. Andy

To be honest after years of mild crap winters a fortnight of hard frosts, frozenponds and sunshine will be fantastic, snow will be a bonus. Andy

Next weekend is going to test the resilience of the uk power supply as severe cold combines with light winds in the North Sea. At 20:45 Saturday night it will be World Cup England v France half time, millions will put the kettle on and with temperatures outside well below freezing the demand in the grid will be exceptional. I presume those in charge are planning for this? I have brought a load of candles in case Andy

Absolutely, even during winter 1978/79 short mild spells were frequent occurring in early December, just after Christmas, second week in January and last week in February. Set ups like 1963 or even December 2010 are exceptionally rare. Andy

Yes, I remember 2 days before the BFTE arrived and the MetO said my location in East Cumbria would stay dry. 72 hours later the snow was 16cms deep. With low pressure, deep cold and high SSTs, how can it stay dry? Andy