Penrith Snow

This October was remarkable for the widespread low temperatures across the UK particularly early and late in the month. On the 7th wet snow was observed to fall across large areas of South East England to give the earliest reports of falling snow in the area since Victorian times. I remember the lunchtime news reporting the widespread reports of falling snow that morning, I have the DWR for that day and many airport weather stations noted a snow/rain mix for several hours in the morning. Later in the month strong northerly winds brought widespread wintry showers to the north of the UK and on the 30th the A66 Trans Pennine route was closed by snow between Penrith and Scotch Corner. October 1974 was also the month that the BBC broadcast the lengthy documentary 'The Weather Machine and the Threat of Ice' presented by Magnus Magnusson, it was a fantastic documentary that warned the recent drop in global temperatures heralded the approach of the next glaciation, this combined with the recent very cool summer, cold autumn and forecast of a bitter winter made for a sombre outlook. As a 13 year old school boy that loved snow I was as excited as hell! Alas, winter 1974/75 was one of the mildest of the 20th Century and within 10 years the talk was all about Global Warming. However, for a few months in late 1974 it did seem like the world was about to freeze.

Like in Winter, when it’s Dont mention a Greenland High

Hmmm, looking at this mornings models the weather next weekend looks ok in SE England but decidedly cloudy and damp in the NW with a air flow off the Atlantic. pressure pattern actually close to normal which TBH isn’t good news for my part of the world ? Andy

We better hope this mornings GFS is a rogue run cos it's a stinker, with very cool and unsettled conditions from the middle of next weekonwards even in the SE. I am not convinced and the MetO certainly doesn't think such an outlook is likely. In SE Spain at the moment and temperatures way above average with August like temperatures, much of the Med is the same. Andy

The output is better than it was a few days ago and going forward conditions in the SE look decent enough. However, here in the NW a continuous flow of air off the Atlantic will make for poor conditions evening pressure rises. Our best spell of weather so far in 2022 was the fine spell in March, since the its been very average with very few warm, sunny days. Andy

Yes GFS very unsettled but as I said before after 3 months the Atlantic had to return eventually and I suspect we are looking at a good 4 week unsettled spell at least in the NW. TBH I am bored with the annual summer chase which up here is always fruitless and I am looking for a cool wet summer which will make a cold winter in 20022/23 much more likely. A synoptic rerun of June to December 2009 will do fine. Andy

After 3 months of predominantly dry, anticyclonic weather a change to a more normal westerly flow must be anticipated. The question now is how wet, how cool and for how long? The absence of the Azores High ridgeing northwards on this mornings ECM is notable, but rest assured if the AH is absent for the next 5 months it is sure to reappear strongly in November! Andy

Seems to me both GFS and ECM hint at high pressure to the west if the UK in 9 days time. long way out of course but this current warm spell may not last beyond the weekend. The weak northerly scenario seems likely as this has been a repeated pattern this spring. If so expect more dry weather but a lot cooler Andy

Indeed and here in Cumbria the heatwave has been reduced to 3 hours on Saturday afternoon!

I left the UK for Spain on the 29th January and it was anticyclonic dry, cloudy and 10c. Returned today and guess what it’s anticyclonic dry, cloudy and 10c! When are we going to get any actual weather! Andy

Depends where you live, here in the Lake District Easter is looking good as the best weather will be in the NW. North/South split in our favour for a change Andy

The UK weather now is awful, growing up in the 70’s we had a run of mild winters but they were always compensated for by some cold, snowy weather in spring. 1973 brought a sunny mild March but April brought a very cold northerly spell with widespread snow. 7cms lay at Birmingham Airport on the morning of the 12th. 1974 spring produced several easterly spells with some snowfall in March. Election Day on 1st March brought widespread snow to the Midlands 1975 brought a very wintry March and April with widespread snowfalls from the second week in March till mid April. Birmingham was brought to a standstill by 18cms of snow falling on 27th March. Then of course was the bonus snowfall on 2nd June! 1976 again gave us a cold March with easterly winds and some snow. All these winters were mild but nature compensated in Spring. No such luck in 2022 with another mild, boring March Andy

Spring used to follow Winter, it now follows Autumn

This mornings ECM reaches Spring, 1st March but no real change although high pressure has pushed north into Europe but heights remain over Iberia. The result is the UK in a mild south westerly flow while a plunge of cold air over Eastern Europe moves south into Greece providing scope for another Athens Snowfall Special. So as I said no change really. Andy

Some signs now of cold zonality in FI, I think this is the best chance of getting some snow before this nightmare of a winter ends. February 1998 was exceptionally mild after a mild January but a spell of cold north westerlies in the last week brought heavy snow on the 28th. our only chance is something similar this year. Andy

Surely, for Winter to be over it actually has to start!!

As long as you work at the Cairngorm Ski Lift!

Very poor runs this morning as expected with not even the cold zonality of recently, instead it as a Bartlett apocalypse with intense high pressure over Iberia and deep lows to the north throughout the ECM run. This takes us with high certainly to the 21st February and things will need to change quickly if we are to get any kind of cold spell before the months end. GFS tends to build pressure from the south in FI but to be honest guys this just moves the deck chairs on the Titanic. In a year that has brought a good deal of snow and cold across the Northern Hemisphere one can only stand in amazement on the terrible winter we have had to endure. Andy

Winter 2007 was just as bad here with no lying snow all winter, this was the first snowless winter in Penrith since records began in 1903. Unfortunately we have had several more since then underlying just how bad recent winters have been. Andy

It feels like a Zombie winter at least 2014 had the storms and a lot of upland snow in February. This winter is more like 2017 which was equally dull and miserable. Andy

Agreed, late February cold spells tend to lack punch with 2018 being the notable exception, after the 22nd the sun's strength is notable and snow thaws quickly on any sunny day. Andy

As night follows day, spring will follow winter but as the weather never progressed beyond November we could miss a whole season!

After looking at this mornings runs if anything it's going the wrong way! After a brief cold ridge both ECM and GFS bring in a strong zonal flow from Day 8 with intense high pressure over Iberia and deep lows around Iceland, this produces an ever increasing positive NAO which goes off the charts by the middle of next week. Some cold zonality like yesterday is possible but the emphasis will be on mild and in increasingly unsettled weather if all this verifies. I would imagine it will be March now before the PV weakens and to be honest winter 2022 is dead in the water. Andy

TBH a few ECM runs before Christmas were very good and snowfall would have been widespread had they verified but no, this winter is up there with 1989 for pure dross. I remember the early Internet days on Netweather and TWO and how we would moan about Bartlett's and 2 Day Topplers, how we would be grateful for an Arctic 2 Day Toppler now!! Remember the 2 Day Toppler at the end of January 2004, a band of drifting snow crossed the entire Country and not a single person missed out, seems like heaven now Andy

You know things are bad when it's Friday evening and the Hunt for Cold thread is in fourth place on the Winter Discussion page. Not surprised as the midday runs bring little cheer, more mild high pressure