Penrith Snow

That's isn't true, I spend most of my year in Southern Spain and an hours air conditioning is a lot cheaper than an hours heating especially if you heat by electric. Check it out on Google. Andy

Feels like since 11th Jan 2021! ??

That was me on 14th February 1979, my new girl Julie wanted a romantic evening but I had other ideas, I mean could she not see those -12c uppers incoming from Russia? It was a classic easterly that made the BFTE look timid. OK she dumped me afterwards and I never could understand why?

Up early to get my flight to Southern Spain for 3 months, so one last look at the models. UKMO keeps the short northerly next weekend but ECM and GFS keep it more flat although ECM have it colder with -5c uppers. After that all models flatten the pattern but then at 364 GFS moves the high north and very cold easterly winds flood the UK. You couldn't make this stuff up. Over to you guys, I have a plane to catch. I will be watching from a distance. Andy

I agree, When that huge Iberian High developed after Christmas leading to record High temperatures I thought oh dear, never a good sign. After that the chances of a proper easterly developing were zero but I did think we could get some cold zonality. Alas even that has gone now and I suspect February will be more of the same. Dreadful, thank God I am flying to Spain today for 3 months, under the High the weather there is very nice. Andy

Terrible ECM and GFS tonight that really couldn’t be any worse, they think it’s all over it is now! UKMO still has a brief Northerly but even Exeter doesn’t believe it. This winter is increasingly reminding me of a slightly cooler version of 1988/89 That too had a cold snowy spell in November but then mild weather either wet or dry dominated till March. Cold wintry weather arrived in April which was a cold, wet month with loads of ‘if only it was January’ charts. May too was awful but summer arrived in June. Its not pattern matching to imagine a similar outcome in 2022. Andy

If this winter had been made up of ECM and GFS 10 day charts it would have been fantastic! Andy

I read recently a peer reviewed paper that said due to GW the PV is increasingly being displaced towards North America and that the US will endure more severe winters in the future as a result. I thought at the time the authors have just extrapolated what has happened in recent years but we can now add 2022 to the list as well. If this proves correct it bodes badly for UK winters as this PV displacement over the US sector is mirrored by an extension of the Azores High North East wards, again this has been played out in 2022. Let's hope this is a temporary phenomenon as such a set up makes Northern blocking all but impossible. Andy

Having just studied tonight's output I have to say the snow chances are being watered down (as expected). Uppers struggle to get below -5c which in a North westerly ain't going to cut it even in the North. It's all looking very February 2014 and 2020 which brought heavy snow to the Scottish and Cumbrian hills but little elsewhere. Even the Beeb failed to mention snow in its MRF after the bullish comments yesterday. Still time for change but at the moment it's going the wrong way. Andy

So it seems most of the NH at sometime this winter has seen a decent spell of cold and snow. Even the US which had a mild December. Not the UK however, we are like the naughty school boy told he can’t have an ice cream. I blame the University of East Anglia as they invented GW and if this winter is anything to go by it never left the UK! Andy

Same here, it’s not the hobby it used to be. I now watch paint dry instead, it’s more varied This will be after 30 years waiting for snow....... Andy

Athens yesterday. And many British Cities haven’t seen a flake. You couldn’t make it up Andy

Surprised by the lack of activity on this thread given the much improved output. Event the Beeb on its week ahead forecast raised the prospect of snow next weekend 5th/6th Feb and you know how reserved they are. The BBC of course use ECM data. I am expecting a big upgrade on the MetO MRF tomorrow to something more wintry, today's was just a reissue of the last few days, they clearly couldn't be bothered to update it. Cold zonality is clearly better for the north but on many occasions the South has done well from runners in the cold westerly flow. Andy

And another Greek Snowfall Special just to rub it in

Incorrect. I have a house in southern Spain and the Spanish love the outdoor lifestyle a hot summer brings, you hear them moan if we get an unseasonal wet spell. I have spent many summers out in Spain and only for 4 weeks per year is the heat too much. The endless blue skies are glorious. Andy

Years ago MRFs were compiled using 500mb analysis charts as they iron out surface features. This forecasting method is much better IMO than the Mumbo Jumbo of MJOs AMM's and Mountain Torque etc! Keep up the good work John you have been spot on most of this winter. Andy

Athens Airport this afternoon. Meanwhile here in Northern England I spent the day cutting the grass! Andy

Wow, what a stinker, unfortunately it ties in with the MetOupdate that high pressure will only slowly lose its grip and it will be well into February before zonality returns. What happens then is anyone's guess but the cold zonality hinted at yesterday seems to have gone. Look on the brightside it looks like more snow for our favourite Greek beaches Andy

No it hasn't always been thus, until 1988 UK winters often had spells of cold and snow now these spells are rare.

Oh well on another dreary mild January day it's nice to know someone is getting snow. The Agean Islands in Greece received heavy snowfalls last night right down to sea level, with an average max temperature in January of 16c that's not bad going. Mainland Greece affected by a severe freeze with heavy snow and night temps below -15c We can only dream. Andy

Come on guys, the signed change to cool zonality has got to be better than the boredom if a 4 week UK high, your never going to see a flake from that but at least with cold zonality everyone has a chance. This UK high has only benefited the Greeks. Andy

Don't get too excited if we see cold zonality forecast with -5 uppers, for most of us it won't deliver. Living in Cumbria with a bit of height cold zonality can be excellent for snow but it's still a rare beast and even here -5c uppers on a north westerly will only bring snow to the fells above 400 meters, to get snow down close to sea level we really need uppers below -7c which is quite an ask of an airmass crossing the north Atlantic. It does happen but not convinced yet that this is what awaits us in early February, having said that the end of this zombie weather can't come soon enough. Andy

Another article on how GW will cool Europe, well guys the trend is going the wrong way and after 30 years I am still waiting! Andy

My God, 9pm on a late January evening and we haven't had a post in the 'Hunt for Cold' thread in over an hour. Says it all Andy

If anyone can find a worse winter chart I would love to see it! Apparently snow fell in the central Sahara yesterday for the first time in 40 years, combined with the Greek freeze the message seems to be if you want snow go south! Andy