Liam J
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Everything posted by Liam J
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Great winters day with loads of sunshine for a change! Very cheery, slight frost this morning which has been a rare occurrence this winter. Currently 6.5c with light winds.
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Not a bad afternoon after this mornings rain with scattered cloud and some sunny breaks, quite chilly with a high of 6.3c so far and it looks like getting colder still in the coming days, maybe even a frost or two! I'll be more than happy with some dry & bright late winter days.
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Very wet day on and off with some torrential showers at times and feeling cool with a max of 6.4c, a bit breezy.
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Centre of Imogen now sitting between Scotland and Norway with the tighter gradient moving across Southern England for the next few hours or so.
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Hi res NetWx-SR gusts charts for this afternoon, peak for the next few hours with gusts of 50-60mph before the winds moderate towards late afternoon.
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Yeah up to 60mph seems nearer the mark away from exposed coasts, Isle of Portland 79mph and the Isle Of Wight 69mph just recently. GFS does tend to over do inland wind speeds a tad, best sticking to hi res models when in range.
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Can't see any of the GFS' 65-70mph gust predictions inland yet across southern England, 40-50mph quite widely and there are a few stations recording 50-60mph. Strongest winds so far have been across S/SW Wales, North Devon and along the exposed south coast, as expected in the amber warning zone.
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The gust predictions for yesterdays wind & rain actually look the same or slightly higher across the SE when compared to the above charts from Imogen, but the wind direction will be different tomorrow. Going back a few months the last named storm to affect the southern half of the UK was Barney back in November, not looking as strong as he was and the Met warning stayed yellow for this event! Latest surface analysis showing Imogen up to 960mb.
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12z NetWx-SR wind gusts, 50-60mph for most, higher over S/SW Wales & N Cornwall. It'll be funnelling up the Bristol Channel.
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They've been pretty good with the last few windstorms, no charts to suggest they are under playing anything, 50mph or so inland & 60-70mph around the coasts maybe a touch higher in very exposed locations. Certainly nothing like the great storm!
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Latest gust predictions from the 12z ARPEGE, the far S/SW of Ireland, S/SW Wales and Cornwall getting the worse from Imogen then later in the day through the channel, could be some rough ferry crossings.
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TORRO convective discussion been issued. http://www.torro.org.uk/forecast.php
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I guess they will be the max gusts likely in that area which may be near the coasts and not representative that all locations will see gusts that high? Be easier than putting dividing lines all over the map with all the different wind gusts for certain locations, maybe a bit misleading? Best using higher res models now it's within range vs lower res larger grid points of the GFS etc which won't be able to take into account local topography for example. High res NetwX-SR gusts charts.
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The Met Office wind gust map also showing 50-55mph gusts inland, 60-70mph along the exposed south coast where the amber warning is in force.
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Imogen is now currently a mature Atlantic depression with a central pressure of 956mb, she'll be starting to fill slowly now as she approaches the UK. This was Imogen during the early hours of Sunday, if she was hitting the UK in this state then we'd be talking some very impressive gusts & poss red warnings for some. Current analysis & latest satellite image of her.
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As a high wind enthusiast you would've wet yourself with excitement if you were in Lerwick when storm Gertrude blasted through lol, hurricane force winds, red warning & gusts 90-100mph, 105mph top gust!
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The Irish Met Office named it yesterday.
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Doesn't look too bad on the AROME, maybe underplaying wind speeds a tad? Very windy north Cornwall and through the Bristol channel but only 50mph or so inland, it may be right. Nice detailed charts though.
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SW Ireland looks like it'll get the worst from Imogen with gusts around 80mph or so. Tracking eastwards to affect S Wales & SW England, with gusts around 60-70mph, strongest winds likely S/SW Wales, N Cornwall and then far southern coastal areas and through the channel, not overly windy inland according the ARPEGE.
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Very windy across the far north of Ireland, severe westerly gales with a gust of 75mph @ Malin Head - http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ Could be some very strong winds for a time funnelling through the central belt in a few hours with gusts over 60mph.
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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
Liam J replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Now this would feel bitter! Sadly all in FI but it would feel like proper winter.
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Even the latest GFS has failed to pick up on the 60-70mph gusts currently affecting western Ireland this afternoon.
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6Z ARPEGE kept the strongest winds further south, will have to see what the 12z run makes of it.
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Pretty windy day across the SW with strong winds now affecting more S/SE areas with gusts around 40-50mph inland, very wet in many places too. Looking at the latest wind/gusts on XC, Mace Head W Ireland recording severe gale 9 mean speed with gusts into the mid 60's which is nearly double the predictions based on the last GFS 6z run - http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ The ARPEGE is much nearer the mark. GFS
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Have you even bothered to read the forecast?? December was very unsettled with flooding & above average temperatures which was all mentioned in the December forecast unless I'm reading something completely different to you? Since when did weather forecasting become a fact of what is 'certainly' going to happen for a given date time & location in the future?
