Disappointing springs followed by excellent summers?

[raz.org.rain]

Something I've been curious about lately, is there an identifiable correlation between springs that fail to deliver any exceptional warmth in the first half and the summers that follow?
 

As a purely unscientific observation, it would seem that a poor first half to spring has led onto classic summers in recent years. I think both 2018 and 1995 were examples of unexceptional springs that were followed by warmer and drier summers? The opposite would seem to be true, with early warmth in spring often leading onto poor summers. As an IMBY analysis, this happened around the late 2000s/early 2010s with the springs being considerably better than the summers. 2007 seems to be suggested as an analogue for 2024 so far but it would seem that 2007 had a much drier and sunnier spring.

[LetItSnow!]

There is no direct correlation between the weather in spring and the following summer, but there are many examples of years that had “dismal” springs that had nice summers after then. At a browse I can see:

2013, 1996, 1983, 1975, 1969

*Edit

1969 is an interesting summer, definitely forgotten. Not an all time classic but it seems to have been very pleasant. June 1969 was very sunny and apparently the sunniest on record in London at the time, though temperatures were a little below average due to some cool nights. July 1969 seems to have been a month punctuated by two extremely wet spells early and late but warm and dry during the middle third with the temperature up to 32C on the 22nd. Very dry in Scotland and dry overall except where the rains came on the 6th and then the 28th/29th, the latter of which seems to have been ferociously thundery. August 1969 seemed to have a bit of a NW/SE split, very dry in the NW but wet and dull in the extreme east but for most quite good. For the 1960s standards it would have been gorgeous. I’d take it over 2022 any day. 

Edited April 18 by LetItSnow!

[summer blizzard]

Without defining what we consider dissapointing we can't really say. 

A lot of these type of questions are anecdotal and depend on subjective assessment. 

If we look at 2013, 2018 and 2022 as producing the 'proper summers' then actually spring 2013 was persistently poor, spring 2018 was essentially a flip and spring 2022 was mild and dry but i had to look it up which suggests the weather experienced was somewhat forgettable. 

What we know of March and April is that they will both come in fairly warm and wet so a more objective assessment would be to look at comparable years. 

 

March above 7.7C and April above 9C yields... 

2022

2019

2017

2014

1997

1961

1948

1945

1779

1734

 

March and April above 100m yields.. 

2001

1818

 

When we take out subjective anecdotal evidence, those are our best matches.

 

 

 

 

 

[LetItSnow!]

 summer blizzard 1818 seems to have a blistering June-July pairing with a CET of 16.4 and 18.2 respectively. August 1818 didn’t wanna play ball though at 15.3C. Extremely dry summer though oddly despite August being the coolest month it was the driest with a paltry 20mm on the EWP series. I imagine 1818 must’ve been very blocked, a very meridional type pattern that aligned well for UK heat at first but then changed to lots of cool but dry weather later. I imagine if it had existed, the synoptic charts would have a lot of HP over and to our west. 

2001 a much more straightforward British summer type fare and one I’d be fine with. 

[B87]

1975, 1983, 1989, 1994, 2006, 2013, 2018 all had crap springs and notably good summers.

1955, 1996, 2001 had crap springs that turned into summers on the better end of average.

I'd take a repeat of summer 1996 for the dry and sunny conditions, even if it wasn't particularly hot.

Edited April 18 by B87

[Wade]

The most recent and blatant example is 2018

[Don]

 Wade April 2018 had a hot spell and May was a very summery month, so I wouldn't call spring 2018 poor.

[Metwatch]

 Don

Combined with the snow in March, I would go to say it's one of the best springs for variety in many years. Almost a continental like spring with a defined change from cold - > hot & thundery!

[Bristawl Si]

Erm, last Spring (2023) was pretty awful here, and 

Summer 2023 wasnt great, with a 'filling' of a dreadful July.

[Don]

 Metwatch Yes, it was pretty impressive how it almost went from winter to summer in a flash!  Spring 2018 is certainly one I will always remember.

[B87]

 Don The whole of March and the vast majority of April were dreadful. Unrelenting cold, wet and dull for almost 2 months.

[damianslaw]

It depends on what is classed as disappointing.. and excellent.. I'm summising by disappointing you mean, wetter, duller and cooler than average, and by excellent you mean sunnier, warmer and drier than average.

Also timelines important, over the 3 months as a whole, rather than parts of the seasons being either, or , or.

By such definitions I think of many years that align well, probably 1983, spring was consistently wet, cool and dull, summer brought a very warm dry July, I think August was similiar, not sure about June.

2018 falls foul given the spring fell into both camps. 

1995 brought a mixed Spring, sometimes wet, cool and dry, sometimes warm, dry and sunny, overall it was a very dry spring. so it can't be included.

1996 brought a fairly dry but cool dull spring, and a fairly average summer, mmm doesn't fit the bill.

2013 possibly closest contender since 1983, a wet cold dull spring, and a dry sunny warm summer, the hot July cancelled out the cool June, average - warm August.

1983, 2013 fit the definition in this context.

 

 

Edited April 18 by damianslaw

[Don]

 B87 For variety, spring 2018 was excellent with something for both cold and heat lovers.  However, even for those who dislike cold, May made up for at least some of what March and April lacked.  It seems to me that some are only focusing on poor periods during seasons, i.e. June and September last year seemingly ignored? 

I don't know of many cold seekers who claim winter 2010/11 was awful because following that brutal December, January 2011 was unremarkable and February very mild?  Cold and snow was largely done for that winter after Boxing Day, but what occurred previously made it memorable!

Edited April 18 by Don

[B87]

 Don Spring 2018 was 33% good and 67% bad. March in particular was absolutely dreadful, very cold and exceptionally wet and dull. April was also extremely dull with the majority of days quite poor. Only May delivered.

August 1998 was dry and very sunny, but nobody would consider 1998 to be a good summer after the absolute shambles of June and July.

Edited April 18 by B87

[Don]

11 minutes ago, B87 said:

August 1998 was dry and very sunny, but nobody would consider 1998 to be a good summer after the absolute shambles of June and July.

August 1998 wasn't anything out of the ordinary really, better than June and July, but not outstanding.  Spring 2018 obviously wasn't great overall for warm seekers, but nor was it awful either with a few days of near record breaking heat in April and May was pretty exceptional all the way.

[B87]

 Don It was the 2nd sunniest August on record here.

[Don]

 B87 I suppose with August 1998 coming so soon after 1995 and with the previous August being the 2nd hottest on record, perhaps I'm not giving it as much credit it deserves?!

[B87]

 Don As you can see, temperature wise it was nothing special, but saw 263 hours of sun and 16.6mm rain over 3 days. August 1997 was actually duller than average. We had to wait until 2022 to get an August as sunny as 1998, a long time to wait!

Summer 2020 is another that would not be considered good, although late July to mid August were fantastic. In the end, it was a dull and wet summer.

Edited April 18 by B87

[hillbilly]

Not forgetting the old saying,'A cold wet May and a barn full of hay'!