Sst's And Sea Ice - Trends

[Glacier Point]

Morning all.

The final piece of data now in and this completes the build-up to winter- the SST forecast from NCEP:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/anal...s/glbSSTSea.gif

the main highlights being:

1) Warm pooling central Atlantic set to intensify and remain in close association with cold anomalies off the eastern Seaboard of the USA, with colder anomalies across the sub-tropical Atlantic - perfect symmetry with an anticyclonic blocked Northern Europe.

2) Pacific cold pooling west of Canada set to stabilise and then decline - weak La Nina going back neutral. There is some uncertainty here but I think it's safe to plan for the contingency of both occuring - ie. highly variable jet pattern across the USA switching +/-ve PNA pattern, most particularly associated with Maden Julien Oscillation in sub-tropics.

3) Cold pooling to north not shown by resolution maps but assumed to stay in place with no major incursions up the Davis Straights of warm water.

All in all, pretty continuous with the last output although I am slightly sceptical about the forecast degree of warm anomaly in the central Atlantic from where we are now:

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

This is an excellent recipe for a displaced polar jet well to our south with some residual flow up the western flank of Greenland and stronger sub-tropical flow stemming from the central Pacific.

I will be in a position soon to post my seasonal outlook.

Regards GP

[smith25]

Sorry enforcer but i completely disagree with you on this as todays SST anomolys look nothing like november 1998. For a start we don't have that massive positive anomoly in the middle of the atlantic instead we have a colder and slightly negitive pooling. We also have a positive area in the north sea in 05 rather than a negitive in 98. North of russia theres a negitive pooling unlike todays which is postive.

latest map

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/U..._sstanomaly.gif

5th Nov 98

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/AR..._sstanomaly.gif

[osmposm]

Sorry enforcer but i completely disagree with you on this as todays SST anomolys look nothing like november 1998........

latest map

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/U..._sstanomaly.gif

5th Nov 98

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/AR..._sstanomaly.gif

One of the problems with all this SST anomaly stuff is that the fnmoc/NCODA-OTIS maps (as presented by smith25) often - indeed usually - show very little resemblance to the unisys versions (as used by Enforcer). Who should we believe? Why is their data so different?

Another problem is that, although the SST over which an airmass moves clearly affects the temperature of that mass, the opposite is also true - and often pretty quickly; it is, after all, only the Sea SURFACE temp we are talking about, and everybody who blows on their cup of tea to cool it down knows how fast that can achieved.

For that reason, Enforcer, I am not sure how useful showing the different years' charts for early December is: it's a month away, and as you point out yourself with regard to 1998, things often change dramatically in that space of time.

It's all fascinating reading, I admit; but I tend to believe that SSTs are primarily the result of our weather rather than the cause of it.

Edited November 7, 2005 by osmposm

[Zerouali lives]

More positive news this morning regarding the SST's - the -ve anomalies around the southern coast of Greenland have spread marginally further south into the Atlantic which should push the jet further south. This is backed up by a more positive GFS run this morning promoting a cold pM by the weekend and possibly into next week although that is into FI territory.

[shuggee]

I'm wondering if they use a different period to measure the mean against? (For example one uses 1971- 2000, the other 1961 - 1990; or something... Pure speculation btw!).

[The Enforcer]

Sorry enforcer but i completely disagree with you on this as todays SST anomolys look nothing like november 1998. For a start we don't have that massive positive anomoly in the middle of the atlantic instead we have a colder and slightly negitive pooling. We also have a positive area in the north sea in 05 rather than a negitive in 98. North of russia theres a negitive pooling unlike todays which is postive.

latest map

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/U..._sstanomaly.gif

5th Nov 98

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/AR..._sstanomaly.gif

I was concentrating on the area around Greenland and Iceland ostensibly. I accept that globally, there are significant differences and given how winter 1998/99 turned out, that may not be a bad thing.

[The Enforcer]

One of the problems with all this SST anomaly stuff is that the fnmoc/NCODA-OTIS maps (as presented by smith25) often - indeed usually - show very little resemblance to the unisys versions (as used by Enforcer). Who should we believe? Why is their data so different?

Another problem is that, although the SST over which an airmass moves clearly affects the temperature of that mass, the opposite is also true - and often pretty quickly; it is, after all, only the Sea SURFACE temp we are talking about, and everybody who blows on their cup of tea to cool it down knows how fast that can achieved.

For that reason, Enforcer, I am not sure how useful showing the different years' charts for early December is: it's a month away, and as you point out yourself with regard to 1998, things often change dramatically in that space of time.

It's all fascinating reading, I admit; but I tend to believe that SSTs are primarily the result of our weather rather than the cause of it.

I can't explain the differences. I use the Unisys ones because I find them clearer and the boundaries between temperatures are more clearly defined and easier to analyse. The Fnmoc charts are curved at the edges (a bit like the initial version of the new BBC weather graphics) rather than the flat plan view, which tends to distort the size of areas in favour of those nearer the equator. Nevertheless, Fnmoc does have the advantage of showing more of the Artic Circle. The truth probably lies somewhere between the two.

I agree with what you say about the SST interaction with airmasses, however, I'm led to believe by others (SF/SM/IB) that the influence of SST on air is greater than the other way round.

The comparison of Decembers was to show that it is the SST position at that time that is more important than the current position, otherwise 1998/99 would have been colder than 2000/01, in my view. None of the Decembers featured show the extent of cold anomalies that are currently present. The only year where some cold anomalies were still in situ in the GIN corridor without any strongly positive areas alongside them in the first week of December was 2000.

Is it a coincidence that winter 2000/01 recorded the lowest CET of all the winters from 98/99 to 04/05? As you say, it is probably the case that the colder than average SSTs are not a direct cause of a colder UK winter. I tend to regard them as one of the symptoms that emerges as a result of the other global factors that generate the conditions which enable a colder UK winter to occur.

I'm wondering if they use a different period to measure the mean against? (For example one uses 1971- 2000, the other 1961 - 1990; or something... Pure speculation btw!).

Good point. I don't think it's critical as long as you stick with one set of charts and don't try to compare Unisys charts with a Fnmoc charts from different years.

Also one important piece of information is as of today for the first time since Mid Dec 2004 the Northern Hemisphere Sea ice cover has recovered to Normal values-

That's quite an amazing turnaround. I assume that some areas are still massively below average though. When I looked at the data last week, I was surprised that the ice levels in the Barents Sea (N of Norway) was above average given that it must have been on the receiving end of all the very mild air that's been heading north in recent weeks/months. This tends to reinforce the view that the SSTs don't pay too much attention to the temperature of the air above.

If the ice has managed to claw it's way back from the brink of oblivion, please let it not run out of steam (poor choice of words) and keep going so that by the end of the winter there will be a much larger ice pack than in recent years.

[osmposm]

Good point raise by osmjkdfopawe (head explodes)

Try splitting into two: OSM - POSM. The second half rhymes with the first.

My real name is Osmund - Osmposm was one of the (several) chilhood nicknames that were used to try snd make it slightly less pompous-sounding....

[The Enforcer]

Try splitting into two: OSM - POSM. The second half rhymes with the first.

My real name is Osmund - Osmposm was one of the (several) chilhood nicknames that were used to try snd make it slightly less pompous-sounding....

Going off-topic, but my father's christian name is Ormand.

[John Cox]

A very good post Tamara and one I would concur with.

Well balanced for a certain warm ramper .

F1 definately has the polar front sinking south aroung the 19th November and beyond. Heres hoping.

Regards,

John

Edited November 7, 2005 by John Cox

[yido]

Good to see you're stoll optomistic Tamara, I'm personally going for a change next weekend

Thats 'still' and 'optimistic'

Edited November 7, 2005 by yido

[The Enforcer]

Well balanced for a certain warm ramper .

If SP is a warm ramper then I wonder how on earth you would categorise Anvil.

[The Enforcer]

I'm happy to ramp up heatwaves in the summer - but I guess that doesn't count!

BTW - well done on the SST charts Enforcer. An interesting summary.

Tamara

It's a pleasure.

Maybe the anticipation of the coming winter has caused JC to finally lose his marbles. Next he'll be saying that Mr Crazysnowfan is cautiously optimistic about the prospects for snow this winter.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Signs are looking relatively promising for a mid to late November northerly, as the GFS is starting to bring in a large northward ridging Azores High at the back end of its reliable timeframe (about T+120).

Quite a commonly occurring setup for mid November (albeit particularly in the 'modern' winter) has been for there to be a 2-3 day northerly between the 16th and 24th, as happened in 1995, 1998, 1999 and 2004, with 2000, 2002 and 2003 having more half-hearted attempts at Arctic incursions during this period. Many of us will remember November 1996, when northerly and north-westerly winds persisted for almost this entire period and brought events of rather more substance.

Indeed, the only recent Novembers not to have an attempt at an Arctic based cold snap between the 16th and 24th occurred in 1992, 1993 (when we had an easterly instead), 1994, and 2001. In 2001, though, the northerly came earlier, on the 8th/9th.

At the moment, I am suspecting that a northerly blast might come into play on the forecast models shortly, most likely starting between the 15th and 18th.

[kold weather]

Upstream patterns are currently stopping the full use of these colder then average temps to the north,still when the pattern does change I'd have thought things will cool down quite rapidly.Indeed things are setting themsleves up very nicely,I think we are in for a proper suprise winter but when the jet stream eases down later in the winter(maybe even as early as Late November/early Decmber briefly)we wil see some good condtions and Pacific SST's are good for colder weather patterns.

I'd have thought that midmonth will see a NW wind rather then northerly,but still its a start,I'll keep with my monthly forecast for now.Still at least now any northerly or north-westerly should be mor epotent and be much less modified then in recent years by temps to our north,maybe even topples could do the job this year if they keep down like they are,also could be the case that marginal set-ups are more likely to give snow this year then recent years,at least from the north.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

SP

It is important of note as mentioned by some that the sea ice coverage has rapidly increased and are back to normal levels. Bearing in mind the record sea ice minima this is indeed an important event. I said back in early August that i fully expect sea ice to fully reform in the Arctic...Steve MURR I believe commented on my 'brave' call, however, I was right. The only difference is that it has happened a bit quicker than i thought. The Arctic must be building some serious cold up there, those pictures in the papers of the 'poor' polar bears were utter warmist nonsense. When thiose cold shots come down they will be very potent. Be glad you are not in the NE USA this winter as I believe record cold events will occur there this winter. When I posted on the 'other' site last autumn I stated that last winter would be transitional and the synoptic pattern would change. I believe we have entered a new phase and a longer term pattern that will see a gradual cooling trend. My statement re this winter was that I felt Feb might be cold enough to offset the winter CET. I am changing that to 'it will offset the CET for winter'. Two reasons are that

1 I believe it will be a very cold month

2 The colder spells we will get in Jan will be colder than 1st thought thus the CET won't be as high as first thought by the time we get to Feb.

There will be a big shock tio some people this winter in that we will get periods of 10days to 2weeks where it will be cold enough for snow to be lying in lowland UK...

As regards to the SSTs I say if they are as important as some people suggest then the current state is very good and improving. Even with the long southerly spell we experienced the SSTs to our north were totally unaffected.

regards

BFTP

[January Snowstorm]

Hi kw,

To be honest I think things are not looking that great at all.The atlantic has been very lively and is showing absolutely no sign of easing it's grip for the forseeable.Europe is well above average aswell and to be honest apart from favourable sst's things couldn't be much worse

Last year was very different and was largely high pressure dominated which promised maybe something different and even gave rise to thoughts that the jetstream had shifted slightly.The weather has reset itself lately and it's the usual damp squib.The lack of frost for even Scotland really is quite worrying and soil temps are well above average.

I'm sorry guys but I'm calling a mild winter and very possibly the mildest in this current run of excuse for winters

[January Snowstorm]

Hi Tamara,

Smirnoff nah! Jack daniels for me

In one of your comments above you say a mild Autumn has no reflection on what will happen this Winter

Can we look at the fact that I do believe apart from one month this year the CET has been above average and in most cases way above the average.Now all of a sudden once Novemeber ends we are facing the day after tomorrow Ok maybe it is very cold in the Greenland region and all that air is indeed bottled up but we have absolutly no proof that the air will ever reach us.I mean it's typically zonal at the moment and in my view that's the way it will stay throughout Winter apart from the odd miserable toppler

Dont get me wrong I love the cold and snow more than anybody but things should be happening now and they aint! The overwhelming fact is we are stuck in a rut of months and months of above average CET's and a bitter Winter is almost nigh impossible!

I know there are two sides to the argument but you have to admit that mine is as likely as yours

Ger

[summer blizzard]

Here is my November forecast.

The first week of November will se a fairly zonal Jet Stream with a lot of energy being thrown into the Pacific Jet Stream before a reinvigoration in the Atlantic Ocean and a Jet Stream just to the north of the British Isles, the second and third weeks of November will see a continuation of this pattern however the Greenland High will increase in strength and as a result there may be a northerly each week, during the last week of November, almost all of the energy will be in the Pacific Jet Stream and as a result the Jet Stream will move south to be just south of the British Isles increasing the chances of a sustained northerly.

Rainfall - above average

Sunshine - average

CET - average

In summary, i expect this November to become colder as the month progresses with good chances of a few snowy outbreaks, as for the record Autum CET, i think it will be too close to call as i expect the November CET to be within 0.5C of average, so we may actually get a below average CET.

This November forecast was based entirely on sea surface temperatures and the one month time lag which i believe they have on synoptics.

[kold weather]

JS,

1-Lively atlantic happens for a time in every single winter,for certain,even the legandary ones have had spells in either October or November where the jet was running rampant.Wait till early January,if nothing had changed then worry more!

2-Europe being above average is possibly more of a problem but is a result of a very warm Autumn,get a more northerly dominated pattern and you'll quickly see those anomilies go down,besides for now I'm looking more to the north rather then the east for colder weather,which is currently very cold indeed.

3-Last year was way worse in terms of set-up,SSt's were massivly against us and despite what i thought at the time that Azores high parked where it was,was the worst thing that could have happened as it had no real chance of moving with the PFJ the way it was then and even when it calmed down a little we was then stuck with it to our west giving mild northerlies while the rest of Europe cooled a heck of alot.

4-Soil temps ar eindeed above avwerage,but lack of frost isn't such a problem and infact areas of Scotland,and even down here have infact had a frost already in November,remember the average for this time of year is for most areas to have had only 2 frosts anyway(I believe!!),so we are slightly below but I'm sure this week will right that out of the way.

This Autumn has probably given a false impression,only over the last two weeks has the weather been truely zonal with no extra help from forcings from the south,IE ex-tropical cyclones pushing northwards,besides I don't think many went for a colder then average November,I certainly went for the type of month thats occuring at the moment.

Just gotta play the waiting game,no rash moves,remmeber,we are still a good month away from the start of true winter in December!!!!!

(ps,by the way,I don't think anyone is forecasting a 2 month long cold spell like the severe winters,but more like a average winter with maybe one noteable 1-2 week cold spell that gives the goods,at least I believe thats the case!!!)

Edited November 7, 2005 by kold weather

[January Snowstorm]

Looks like you could be right for the first week of November SB

[summer blizzard]

I think that the average number of frosts during November is five, as for those people who hate this current mild weather, think of it this way, once the Jet Stream went zonal in January it eventually "ran out of steam", maybe this wil happen in time for winter.

Kold Weather, it should be noted that was the movement north of Hurricane Wilma which caused this zonal spell.

Edited November 7, 2005 by summer blizzard

[Polar Continental]

Hi BFTP,

A very confident post there mate, not many ifs and maybes.

As this months slowly moves forward I think we will begin to witness the first real tasters of winter, maybe as early as next week, the GFS has been hinting for some time of colder incursions, these won’t be very potent to begin with as they will be quickly toppled. What we need to see towards the end of the month are some increasingly potent arctic incursions, all the ingredients are there now, we just need the right Synoptics.

The 06z run today was very interesting as I commented early today; it projected a complete turn around with high-pressure building to the north, a strong Greenland high ridging with the Azores High. The 12z run has not repeated this completely, but the trend definitely seems to be pointing towards colder conditions, I am sure we are in for very interesting times ahead.

Regards

Paul

Edited November 7, 2005 by Paul Carfoot

[The Enforcer]

maybe even topples could do the job this year if they keep down like they are

Not topplers. They will simply allow the Bartlett to take hold. What we're really looking for is an SST-assisted pressure build strong enough to fend off the Icelandic Low.

[kold weather]

Hi Enforcer,I mean for snow,afterall topplers can stil lgive some good snow events providing the feed isn't altered to much,with SST's as they are I'd have thought the chances for snow are higher in any of those borderline condtions.Not saying I want a toppler but IF the worst came to worst,topplers may still be potent enough to give the goods this year if those SSTA come to our aid.