Sst's And Sea Ice - Trends

[Thundery wintry showers]

Maybe the Continent may cool down a fair bit if those northerlies in about a week's time come off.

Siberia certainly cools down a lot during the GFS FI.

Interesting is the fact that most of the Arctic interior has been warmer than average over the past month (by in order of 2-5C generally, but up to 10C in Siberia), but Greenland has frequently been 2-5C colder than average.

[Zerouali lives]

Not certain about this but it looks as if Sea ice is now starting to form around Svalbard.

http://www.nilu.no/onlinebilder/zeppelin/zeppelin.jpg

[shuggee]

Is it just me, or are the -ve anomalies to our north getting colder and therefore a lovely deeper blue colour?

[John Cox]

Is it just me, or are the -ve anomalies to our north getting colder and therefore a lovely deeper blue colour?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi Shuggee,

It is not your imagination :blink:

Compare 13th oct

To 16th Oct.

Regards,

John

[yido]

Do you remember having a pad of paper and drawing a ball with a hole on it. On the second page you draw the ball ever so slightly closer to the hole and repeat until you draw the ball in the hole?

You then flick through the pad and it looks as if the ball is moving, incredible hey! Anyway is it possible to do this with the sea temps over the last month or so? If it is this would really help to see how temp gradients have changed and moved. Over to you wizz kids. :blink:

[reef]

Do you remember having a pad of paper and drawing a ball with a hole on it. On the second page you draw the ball ever so slightly closer to the hole and repeat until you draw the ball in the hole?

You then flick through the pad and it looks as if the ball is moving, incredible hey! Anyway is it possible to do this with the sea temps over the last month or so? If it is this would really help to see how temp gradients have changed and moved. Over to you wizz kids. :blink:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You mean like this?

Looks to me the anomolies arent really moving anywhere in particular, the positive anomoly in the Atlantic is fading and the negative anomoly to our north gradually getting more negative.

[yido]

You mean like this?

Looks to me the anomolies arent really moving anywhere in particular, the positive anomoly in the Atlantic is fading and the negative anomoly to our north gradually getting more negative.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I do, cheers reef. Call me annoying but is it possible to slow this down a bit? Sorry!

[reef]

I do, cheers reef. Call me annoying but is it possible to slow this down a bit? Sorry!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hows that? it should be twice as slow now.

[kold weather]

Impressive indeed Reef,can clearly see the north cool down a heck of alot as the Greenland high contniues to be quite strong at least over greenland itslef.Indeed tha pattern of SST's seems very slackish indeed with the warm anomaly in the atlantic pretty much fading completely which has helped to induce anothe rpattern,be it still fairly mild there is also a fair chance of colder condtinos with that sort of set-up.

also Pacific hotspot seems to be moving its way eastwards which should contniue to be of help down the line.

[yido]

Hows that? it should be twice as slow now.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Perfect Reef. That little link should be pinned somewhere as it really does show the weather moving rather than it being split to separate days.

To me it looks as if things really began to change on a large scale around the 3rd October. The -anomalies north of us began to develop again after a slight regress and the +anomalies is the Atlantic began to fade.

Again Mods this could really help a lot of us beginners, get it saved!!!

[Methuselah]

I do, cheers reef. Call me annoying but is it possible to slow this down a bit? Sorry!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's perfect...I'm on dial-up!

[The Eagle]

Wont this change if, as expected the greenland high weakens? Great stuff though, really impressed

[Guest johnny]

Well the sst's for the 18/10/05 are looking ever more promising for this coming winter. Not only are they holding to our North but are definately strenthening. I have also noticed several small pools in the Mid Atlantic developing. Can anyone advise if this will have a positive impact if the Atlantic cools significantly on the UK this winter and what weather patterns would be derived from below normal atlantic SST's should this cooling trend continue.

[summer blizzard]

Here is the latest sea surface temperture chart:

As long as they are not close to the British Isles, then the developing cold pools are a good sign for the coming winter.

[Guest johnny]

SB - What implications would the blue areas have on the UK if they were close to us? Would they not be of greater benefit to us if the seas surrounding the UK as well as to our North were below normal? Surely less warming of any N'ly or NW'ly would be the case.

[SnowPersonIII]

I think these cold pools would influence high pressure? Therefore high pressure over us wouldn't be great

But looks as those blues around Iceland are intensifying and perhaps turning pink / purple soon.

[swainclubber]

I think these cold pools would influence high pressure? Therefore high pressure over us wouldn't be great

But looks as those blues around Iceland are intensifying and perhaps turning pink / purple soon.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

is this proven?i have only ever seen on net-weather that this is the case..just been looking on google and found nothin..can anybody please kindly tell me of any links so i can read up on it.

Edited October 19, 2005 by swainclubber

[TG312274]

Would the warm SSTA to the west of Spain help to develop cyclogenesis in that area? Which would be good for the NAO?

[SMU]

Evening All-

A large part of My winter outlook covers the SST anomalies...

I will edit it Now and post the finished work around 10pm this evening....

Steve

[summer blizzard]

The influence of sea surface tempertures on synoptics is not proven, however many people including myself believe that there is a link, i think that sea surface tempertures have a time lag of one month before affecting synoptics however there are obviously other factors to take into account.

I base this on the fact that a cold continent and cold sea surface tempertures will mean a weaker thermal gradiant and as a result high pressure will be encouraged to form in that region, the same is true in summer exept with warm sea surfacetempertures and a warm continent encouraging high pressure.

Here is the closet thing i could find to a explination:

http://www.wxrisk.com/weblinks/MAPS.htm

Yes, the posotive anomoly to the west of Spain will encourage cyclogenesis in that region, which would enhance the likelyhood of a southerly tracking Jet Stream however it is not as simple as that, as the chart below shows:

As you can see, that chart shows that the Jet Stream was going to be fairly northerly tracking, because you can move tour finger over the main posotive anomolies, you could see that the Jet Stream could have a tendancy to leave the British Isles under mild south westerlies whereas todays chart shows the main posotive anomolies to the south of the British Isles which would put a southerly tracking Jet Stream on the cards in around one month providing that other factors are also faviourable.

Edited October 19, 2005 by summer blizzard

[SMU]

The influence of sea surface tempertures on synoptics is not proven, however many people including myself believe that there is a link, i think that sea surface tempertures have a time lag of one month before affecting synoptics however there are obviously other factors to take into account.

I base this on the fact that a cold continent and cold sea surface tempertures will mean a weaker thermal gradiant and as a result high pressure will be encouraged to form in that region, the same is true in summer exept with warm sea surfacetempertures and a warm continent encouraging high pressure.

Here is the closet thing i could find to a explination:

http://www.wxrisk.com/weblinks/MAPS.htm

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

They are 100% linked...

Steve

[swainclubber]

They are 100% linked...

Steve

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

cheers for the clarification

[SMU]

The influence of sea surface tempertures on synoptics is not proven, however many people including myself believe that there is a link, i think that sea surface tempertures have a time lag of one month before affecting synoptics however there are obviously other factors to take into account.

Here is the closet thing i could find to a explination:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Its funny you should post that link SB- I chat to that Professional forecaster sometimes Via PM- He is Excellent- but his forecasts are for America im Afraid.....

S

[summer blizzard]

The current sea surfact temperture anomolies are very encouraging, due to the fact that the cold anomolies are spreading down the eastern side of Greenland indicating that the ice may now be forming there ahead of schedule, there is also a cold anomoly developing in eastern Canada which may spread westward and even better, the posotive anomolies in the middle of the Atlantic are disipating, as long as the posotive anomoly does not get any closer to the British Isles and neither do any cold anomolies, then November is looking very promising, as is the winter as a whole.

[Zerouali lives]

Was just looking at that chart myself and noticed that SST's are around 0°C half way between Greenland and Iceland (2.5°C just off the NE coast of Iceland).

What are the chances of Sea ice forming between the two islands at some point this winter and has this happened before?

Last week there seemed to be Sea ice starting to form in Svalbard.

http://www.nilu.no/onlinebilder/zeppelin/zeppelin.jpg

Edited October 24, 2005 by Zerouali lives