Sst's And Sea Ice - Trends

[Krasnoyarsk Yenesei]

The best snow that I have seen in November was an 8 inch covering in Sheffield (near where DL is) on the 19th of the month in 1996. This was in the same year that another 8 inches fell on New Year's Eve, sadly the last time that I would say we had a proper old fashioned winter event. Snow has fallen since then, but in much smaller quantities and with the added frustration that it melts almost as its falling.

[derbyshire_lad]

You probably get more in one november fall than i've seen cumulatively in 9 years.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i live on highish ground really though thats why i saw 10cm last november aroun the 19th i think it was was really good fall of snow and in feb we saw about 20cm of snow in that massive storm yet up the road about350-400m had about a ft of snow and about 8ft snow drifts blocking the roads in and out of the peak district.

[Optimus Prime]

Nice to see the cold anomalies sticking to the north of us.

What is worrying though are the warm anomalies hugging the east coast of america...I could quite easily see them joining onto the warm anomalies dotted around the Atlantic.

Hope that doesn't happen. Otherwise a large warm pool might threaten our current cold reserved to our north.

Perhaps the government should drop a load of ice cubes around the warm areas?

Edited October 11, 2005 by Optimus Prime

[The Enforcer]

It's more likely that the anomalies develop in situ rather than float around. The thing to watch is the bit of dark green between the dark blue core areas adjacent to Greenland and Iceland.

[Thundery wintry showers]

November 1996 contained the last instance of a significant lasting November wintry spell that I remember- those of 2001 and 2004, while relatively impressive in intensity, were both short lived.

It was wintry over much of the country between the 18th and 24th. I think the Tyne & Wear region didn't get any snow from the low on the 19th (certainly on the east coast, it was sleety rain) but it then snowed and settled on the evening of the 20th; this covering then stuck around for three days. There was then a frontal snow event on the 24th.

[Joy in Cornwall]

It's more likely that the anomalies develop in situ rather than float around. The thing to watch is the bit of dark green between the dark blue core areas adjacent to Greenland and Iceland.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The Enforcer

Can you please explain why the bit of dark green between the dark blue core areas needs to be watched?

Also I notice whilst the sst anomoly is -ve to the north and east of Icleand it is still very much +ve to the south and west, particularly around Southern Greenland. Is this not likely to aid cyclogenisis in this region, with the cold anomoly to the northeast then sending topplers southeast over us.

Very new to this, so apologies if I sound a bit "blond"

Joy

[The Enforcer]

The Enforcer

Can you please explain why the bit of dark green between the dark blue core areas needs to be watched?

Also I notice whilst the sst anomoly is -ve to the north and east of Icleand it is still very much +ve to the south and west, particularly around Southern Greenland.  Is this not likely to aid cyclogenisis in this region, with the cold anomoly to the northeast then sending topplers southeast over us.

Very new to this, so apologies if I sound a bit "blond"

Joy

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hello Joy.

The reason for this is that in previous Octobers, particularly 2002, negative anomalies of this ilk have been prevalent only to be replaced by positive anomalies on almost exactly the same spot within about a month. As far as I can tell, these changes have been brought about by the fairly swift conversion of -ve to +ve rather than a warm anomaly barging a cold anomaly out of the way. Here's the 2002 example:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-020929.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-021006.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-021013.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-021020.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-021027.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-021103.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-021110.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-021117.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-021124.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-021201.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-021208.gif

Even though the cold tries to fight back in November, it ultimately loses out big time. You will notice that the positive anomaly gains a grip from splitting the negative anomaly in two and this is what I believe is starting to happen now.

I think other area you have highlighted may also be important, but recent winters have seen low pressure dominant over Iceland. Cold anomalies around there would tip the balance slightly more in favour of high pressure, in the form of an extension of the Greenland High south-eastwards. This would be a difficult block for any low pressures coming off the north-east American coast or developing around southern Greenland to break through. Instead, these systems would be diverted further south, which in turn lowers the boundary between cold and mild.

A rather simplistic theory, I admit, but this is academic as it ain't gonna happen in practice.

Edited October 12, 2005 by The Enforcer

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hello Joy.

The reason for this is that in previous Octobers, particularly 2002, negative anomalies of this ilk have been prevalent only to be replaced by positive anomalies on almost exactly the same spot within about a month. As far as I can tell, these changes have been brought about by the fairly swift conversion of -ve to +ve rather than a warm anomaly barging a cold anomaly out of the way. Here's the 2002 example:

Even though the cold tries to fight back in November, it ultimately loses out big time. You will notice that the positive anomaly gains a grip from splitting the negative anomaly in two and this is what I believe is starting to happen now.

A rather simplistic theory, I admit, but this is academic as it ain't gonna happen in practice.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Enforcer

I believe there will be a difference this year. There will be a slight warming over the next week as I mentioned due to the air coming from way south. However, there is the probability that the GHP will never be gone long and temps will quickly tumble again towards the end of the month and the cold pool ssts will too with a return to bitter cold notherlies up there. I believe a -ve NAO phase too is to start in the next week or two...we have been slightly +ve for 2 months.

BFTP

[Joy in Cornwall]

Enforcer

Thanx you for your excellent and thankfully not to baffling graphical and textural explanation.

However, like some others I'm not convinced that just because this has happened in the past it's nesscessarily going to happen again, there are too many variables at work here IMO - some we understand and perhaps also some we are yet to get to grips with.

This having been said, if I was being forced to come down on one side of fence or the other right now I'd not be calling for a particularly cold winter, at least not through the first half.

This is no more than a gut feeling mind you and I'd love to be proven incorrect - in fact the more incorrect the better

Joy

[Joy in Cornwall]

Thanx for the welcome SP,

Yes the folks on here do seem very nice (also very intelligent) and although I still find it quite daunting posting up a comment, no one has made me feel like an idiot yet, which is nice :lol: However, there's plenty of time.

Joy

PS: How do I get one of those SACRA numbers and has 69 gone???

[derbyshire_lad]

welcome joy i am not sure if 69 has gone but if you wanted the 69 im sure some one could give you it :lol:

back on topic now the cold pooling looks as if its continuing to grow just hope it carries on that way to be honest then hopefully we will get a good start to winter.

i was reading an article ysterday about this week it was saying how people where sunbathing yesterday but its going to come to an end at the weekend with snow probable in scotland.

[Joy in Cornwall]

welcome joy i am not sure if 69 has gone but if you wanted the 69 im sure some one could give you it   

back on topic now the  cold pooling looks as if its continuing to grow just hope it carries on that  way to be honest  then hopefully we will get a good start to winter.

i was reading an article ysterday about this week it was saying how people where sunbathing yesterday but its going to come to an end at the weekend with snow probable in scotland.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ooooh Agh DL you saucy thing, wish I hadn't asked now :lol:

Though the cold pooling still appears to be growing I'm concerned that the pesky warmth due to be pumped north over the weekend and into next week might start to undo all the good work from Sept and early Oct.

As for the article, sounds like a typical bit of crap journalism to me - The Sun by any chance? . They could and should have said that whilst some people were sunbathing across Central England yesterday snow was falling in Central Scotland.

Joy

[derbyshire_lad]

Ooooh Agh DL you saucy thing, wish I hadn't asked now  

Though the cold pooling still appears to be growing I'm concerned that the pesky warmth due to be pumped north over the weekend and into next week might start to undo all the good work from Sept and early Oct.

As for the article, sounds like a typical bit of crap journalism to me - The Sun by any chance? .  They could and should have said that whilst some people were sunbathing across Central England yesterday snow was falling in Central Scotland.

Joy

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It said that in the daily mirror as well.

[The Enforcer]

I have picked out the 'troublemaker' as Dan Corbett would say on today's SST anomaly chart:

[West is Best]

i was reading an article ysterday about this week it was saying how people where sunbathing yesterday but its going to come to an end at the weekend with snow probable in scotland.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

People were definitely sunbathing in London. It has been ludicrously warm for mid-October. The Sun had a pic of a girl in the sea at Bournemouth, but they may have forced her in there with wads of money.

[summer blizzard]

That posotive anomoly will most likely grow over the next week however i expect that region to be dominated by northerlies until the end of the month afterward, with sea ice begining to form around Iceland.

[cheeky_monkey]

That posotive anomoly will most likely grow over the next week however i expect that region to be dominated by northerlies until the end of the month afterward, with sea ice begining to form around Iceland.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

thats a bit of a contradiction..if the +ve anomly were to grow over the next week or so then it would be mighty difficult for sea ice to form around iceland even with sustained northerlies?

[Joy in Cornwall]

Close comparison of the SST anomoly charts below shows the cold pool around the Iceland/Greenland area is slowly but surely starting to weaken and erode from the north, much as The Enforcer suggested it would earlier this week.

Also a very slight increase in warming is evident between SW Greenland and Labrador, with a more significant warming very obvious off the NE coast of America.

Rather disappointing to say the least and with warm air set to pump north this weekend there appears little sign of this trend reversing in the foreseeable future.

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-051009.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Joy

[Wayneywoo]

This link clearly shows the +ve Anomolies in the Atlantic both North and Central are nearly all but gone.

[The Enforcer]

This link clearly shows the +ve Anomolies in the Atlantic both North and Central are nearly all but gone.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There's a pattern in the Mid-Atlantic though. The positive anomalies form of the eastern coast of America, before spreading/drifting across, by the time they have diminished, a new set are forming, which can be seen at the end of that run.

Edited October 14, 2005 by The Enforcer

[smith25]

Close comparison of the SST anomoly charts below shows the cold pool around the Iceland/Greenland area is slowly but surely starting to weaken and erode from the north, much as The Enforcer suggested it would earlier this week.

Also a very slight increase in warming is evident between SW Greenland and Labrador, with a more significant warming very obvious off the NE coast of America.

Rather disappointing to say the least and with warm air set to pump north this weekend there appears little sign of this trend reversing in the foreseeable future.

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-051009.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Joy

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thats strange as the charts i look at show them expanding and becoming more intense

13th oct

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/U..._sstanomaly.gif

12th oct

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/A..._sstanomaly.gif

Edited October 14, 2005 by smith25

[The PIT]

Great even SST's from different groups can't agree.

[The Eagle]

There has been a push of air from the south directly to our north over the last while, might that explain the slow warming of the sea off Greenland/Iceland?

Edited October 14, 2005 by Darkman

[Wayneywoo]

Thats strange as the charts i look at show them expanding and becoming more intense

13th oct

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/U..._sstanomaly.gif

12th oct

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/A..._sstanomaly.gif

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Smith,

Have another look at them charts. The cold anomolies are quite clearly expanding!

[Methuselah]

We mustn't forget [Have I got this all wrong?], that these SST charts are showing anomalies and not actual temperatures??

Now (the way I see it? ), the seas around Greenland/Iceland have cooled earlier this autumn than they would normally do. But, in the long term, seawater can get no colder than -2C? What this means [i think] is that as winter progresses, the negative anomalies will either shift elsewhere or disappear altogether - but it won't mean that the actual SST is necessarily increasing though?? :blink:

IMO, if the SSTs to our north and northwest settle at or around the thirty-year mean during the coming winter, we COULD be in for a treat???