Sst's And Sea Ice - Trends

[smith25]

Looking at the differences between 6th and 7th October charts I see the very first signs of the cold anomalies being eroded away.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Do the scales on these charts change during year .i.e Is a -3 anolomy in august still a -3 anolomy in lets say january when the sea should be colder anyway???

[summer blizzard]

I think that the anomolies are the deviation away from the monthly average, i doubt they have a daily average.

[derbyshire_lad]

well hopefully the north sea will cool of and we will some cold pools in there and moving down the west side if ireland too that would bode well for a good winter i think wouldn't it.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

well hopefully the north sea will cool of and we will some cold pools in there and moving down the west side if ireland too that would bode well for a good winter i think wouldn't it. :unsure:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I personally wouldn't pay too much attention to the north Sea...if the anomalies are cold north of us and if the easterly airflow is cold enough all will be fine.

BFTP

[SMU]

I personally wouldn't pay too much attention to the north Sea...if the anomalies are cold north of us and if the easterly airflow is cold enough all will be fine.

BFTP

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Afternoon-

Its been a good week in terms of latest SST data- With the cold anomalies to the North beginning to grow and the atlantic ones beginning to disperse...

Come another 10 days- I bet they will be lower still....

and as an edit-

Here are the snowcover charts for this year against last year-

Southerly extent of Snow across America more defined- less in terms of snow creeping into Russia--

The ice movement is the most startling with Siberia lossing a vast quantity of coverage- but a very well defined southerly movement towards iceland from Greenland this year....

S

Edited October 9, 2005 by Steve Murr

[summer blizzard]

Although there is less sea ice than last year near Siberia, it is good to know that the sea ice is now forming there.

[West is Best]

Afternoon-

Its been a good week in terms of latest SST data- With the cold anomalies to the North beginning to grow and the atlantic ones beginning to disperse...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually the exciting cold pool north of Iceland is less potent today than yesterday. I'll bet you it becomes less, not more, potent over the next 10 days!

WIB

[John Cox]

Actually the exciting cold pool north of Iceland is less potent today than yesterday. I'll bet you it becomes less, not more, potent over the next 10 days!

WIB

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

HI WIB,

Yes, but the warm anamoly in the Atlantic is less than 7th Oct.

[John Cox]

Actually the exciting cold pool north of Iceland is less potent today than yesterday. I'll bet you it becomes less, not more, potent over the next 10 days!

WIB

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

HI WIB,

Yes, but the warm pool in the Atlantic is less warm than 7th Oct.

Swings and roundabouts.

Regards,

John

Edited October 9, 2005 by John Cox

[SMU]

Actually the exciting cold pool north of Iceland is less potent today than yesterday. I'll bet you it becomes less, not more, potent over the next 10 days!

WIB

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Im not going into infinite scrutiny over the merest nth of SST change in a specific area- but the general trend is for the northern -VE anomalies to increase and your favoured atlantic +VE SST's that you keep referring to by saying were going to invage the GIN corridoor are well and truly in decline-

Whether this remains the status quo for the season ahead is one of the un-answered questions- but for now- things are at a ;better' vantage point than usual....

S

:unsure:

[The Enforcer]

HI WIB,

Yes, but the warm pool in the Atlantic is less warm than 7th Oct.

Swings and roundabouts.

 

Regards,

John

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Unfortunately, I think the cold anomaly has peaked and the pattern will now be a painful reversal with the anomaly being eroded on a daily basis. The cold pooling in the north atlantic is more important than the warm pooling further south.

[John Cox]

Unfortunately, I think the cold anomaly has peaked and the pattern will now be a painful reversal with the anomaly being eroded on a daily basis. The cold pooling in the north atlantic is more important than the warm pooling further south.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Agree The Enforcer,

I just could not help it when WIB was mild ramping.

John

[Optimus Prime]

I'm in agreement with the cold rampers here

That + anomaly in the atlantic is hardly anything at all now. And even some negative anomalies starting to kick in possibly eroding any warmth left.

The cold pooling to our north IMO is more potent that what it has ever been. The +2c anomaly a few days ago that was hanging onto north east Greenland has diminished some what and the only thing I can see is cold anomalies starting to invade much of the Norwegian sea and further northwards.

I’ve been following the sea temperatures for some time now and things are cooling down quite rapidly.

WIB never likes to be proven wrong so I doubt we will ever here the last of his obsession with the slight warm anomaly currently hanging on in the atlantic

[derbyshire_lad]

well i seem to think think the cold pool will grow as well as a few of you have mentioned, as a few people have said this is the most potent its ever been so we could be in for some real winter weather if the cold pooling continues to grow i just hope the greens and yellows get replaced by blues in the mid atlantic then that would ease any doubts.

[beng]

I'm in agreement with the cold rampers here

That + anomaly in the atlantic is hardly anything at all now. And even some negative anomalies starting to kick in possibly eroding any warmth left.

The cold pooling to our north IMO is more potent that what it has ever been. The +2c anomaly a few days ago that was hanging onto north east Greenland has diminished some what and the only thing I can see is cold anomalies starting to invade much of the Norwegian sea and further northwards.

I’ve been following the sea temperatures for some time now and things are cooling down quite rapidly.

WIB never likes to be proven wrong so I doubt we will ever here the last of his obsession with the slight warm anomaly currently hanging on in the atlantic

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The worry I might have for those cold anomolies is charts like this

http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1502.html

If this was to come off, then quite a bit of warm air is going to be heading up into the GIN area.

Still things look better in that region that this time last year, IMO.

[derbyshire_lad]

just hopeing now that all of this does not go pear shaped now as per usual it always happens in this country hopefully the cold pooling will continue to grow not dissapate

[Optimus Prime]

I doubt that would make a lot of difference to sea temperatures. Generally, if the sea is cold the air just above it stays cold. Milder air usually stays well above sea level. Something to do with heat rising and Cold sinking?

So any warmth like that won't make much difference at all to sea temperatures but it may be a bit of inconvenience for Greenland ice, poking some slightly less cold air, most of it hitting Iceland. Thereafter it turns distinctly cold again with the north going into quite a freeze with the mild zonality being forced southwards, just south of England. So possibly turning severely cold again?

I actually think it might not be a bad thing pushing some slightly milder air into Greenland and Iceland. May in fact be a good thing. The mild moist air rapidly being taken over by much colder air may form a deep LP and bring some large outbreaks of snow in that area with the mild and cold air colliding.

[derbyshire_lad]

the charts dont look to impressive at the moment just hope this all changes as we go in to november so we get loads of snow.

[Zerouali lives]

Some people here have been talking about the possibility of sea ice merging between Greenland and Iceland which i believe is a very rare event indeed. However, with SST's now hovering around 0°C half way between Greenland and Iceland in early October this may now become a reality by the time we get into the thick of winter.

Does anyone know how long it takes and at what temperature before sea ice can be formed in such an area?

[Optimus Prime]

the charts dont look to impressive at the moment just hope this all changes as we go in to november so we get loads of snow.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

if you want snow November rarely ever holds much hope. There was some snow last November wich amounted to about a 0.1MM covering, that's rare!

Even cold Novembers rarely give any snow south of Scotland. The average CET for November is 6.9c. Last time we had a below average one was November 1998. last time we had a very below average one was 1925! 1993 was fairly cold though.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

well i seem to think think the cold pool will grow as well as a few of you have mentioned, as a few people have said this is  the most potent its ever been so we could be in for some real winter weather if the cold pooling continues to grow i just hope the greens and yellows get replaced by blues in the mid atlantic then that would ease any doubts.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I believe there may be a change/slight weakening over the next week or so of the -ve as very warm air is pumped up from a long way south due to the HP to our east. However, I don't think it will last as northelies reaasert themselves back up that way later in the month.

BFTP

[West is Best]

It's called mild ramping and is part of a troublesome condition called 'pot and kettle' <_<

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually, it's called truth.

But just to show how conciliar I am, the cool pool to the far north is certainly better than this time last year. The fact that we have a -0.5C anomaly to the north but a +2C anomaly to the west does not of course make the milder pool 4x more significant. Well, not yet.

[The Enforcer]

Actually, it's called truth.

But just to show how conciliar I am, the cool pool to the far north is certainly better than this time last year. The fact that we have a -0.5C anomaly to the north but a +2C anomaly to the west does not of course make the milder pool 4x more significant. Well, not yet.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Agreed. It's all relative. a -0.5C anomaly in an area that has been +5C for many years is a more significant development than a +4C anomaly in an area that is traditionally +3C.

Edited October 10, 2005 by The Enforcer

[derbyshire_lad]

well hopefully the cold pool will grow and the temps cool off,and then for some cold fronts to down here from the north i think its abit early to say the least about snow anyways maybe mid to late november again thats when i think we will see some decent falls of snow.

[The Enforcer]

well hopefully the cold pool will grow and the temps cool off,and then for  some cold fronts to down here from the north i think its abit early to say the least about snow anyways maybe mid to late  november again thats when i think  we will see some decent falls of snow.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You probably get more in one november fall than i've seen cumulatively in 9 years.