Sst's And Sea Ice - Trends

[Damien]

I don't believe that they will warm up because of that, I believe that they will now start to warm up because that they do this (behave like this) naturally.  Look at autumn 2001 - I discovered a few days ago that that had similar patterns to this year's, though mind you the past few mild winters have seen less of that optimism.  (Just out of interest while we're going down this road: has anyone got 1995's charts?)

Though mind you it could just be a minor blip and more major cooling begins after today's unprecedented warmth.   Let's certainly hope so. :blink:   Remember - just because I am against cold weather in October doesn't mean I am against cold or cool SSTs in October.

[ChartViewer]

Those cold pools for the 27th are definitly expanding and getting a deeper blue

Notice the spread South towards the UK

[Zerouali lives]

The cold pools to our north are more widespread again although the low is now down to -1.2°C - it was much lower a few weeks back. However, the rogue warm pool off the east coast of Greenland has, in turn, cooled. Looks like the cold and warm pools are balancing each other out in that area.

Edited October 28, 2005 by Zerouali lives

[summer blizzard]

Here is the latest sea surface temperture chart...

It is good to see that almost all of the Labrador Sea is below average indicating sea ice formation in that region.

[Damien]

It is good to see that almost all of the Labrador Sea is below average indicating sea ice formation in that region.

Does this mean your winter forecast is still "live" then?

[summer blizzard]

If you mean that it is on track then yes, at leat for the negative NAO parts, i personally do not have much confidence in my forecast as i based it entirely on the teleconection trends of the past three months and due to the fact that hurricanes have intensified the Azores High through warm air advection, i feel that this winter may well turn out colder than i have predicted however that will become clear in my forecast update at the end of November.

[summer blizzard]

There has been a potentially on the sea surface temperture chart today in that instead of the center of the warm anomolies lining up so that the Jet Stream would be south of the British Isles, they now line up so that the Jet Stream will be over or just to the south ofthe British Isles, although that could increase the chances of low pressure traveling directly through the British Isles with a north-south divide, which would favour my area, it could be bad news for the south east, on the plus side, the cold anomolies on both sides of Greenland are spreading south and will eventually link with each other and the cold anomoly to the north of Iceland has deepened so that area is now 2.5C below average and as a result, sea ice may be forming in that region.

In summery, although sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean have become less faviourable, the sea surface tempertures in the Greenland and Labrador Basins have become more faviourable.

[J10]

IMO the sitaution is still looking favourable in many ways, particularly in the Greenland/Iceland area.

[cheeky_monkey]

to me the ssts at the moment are looking spot on for a -ve nao set up should it remain in place..above average around 30 - 50 deg N and below average 55 -70 deg N across the majority of the north atlantic.

[ChartViewer]

SST's this Winter are going to have a lot less affect than most people are relying on?

1. With S/SW Winds right now these SST's are set to provide 'much more green' anomilies than we can see right now

2. With synoptics set right through until mid November at Mild these suggests a Winter of 'less' cold with warm temps warming the sea and again putting as dampener on SST's

3. Late hurricane season meaning 'ad hoc' temps which are not good for SST's driving them North when we want them slightly North of the UK

4. No end in sight to an Azores High/Bartlett meaning SST's mean and HAVE very little affect on coming synoptics unfortuantly

Regards

Chart Viewer

Edited November 1, 2005 by ChartViewer

[yido]

SST's this Winter are going to have a lot less affect than most people are relying on?

1. With S/SW Winds right now these SST's are set to provide 'much more green' anomilies than we can see right now

2. With synoptics set right through until mid November at Mild these suggests a Winter of 'less' cold with warm temps warming the sea and again putting as dampener on SST's

3. Late hurricane season meaning 'ad hoc' temps which are not good for SST's driving them North when we want them slightly North of the UK

4. No end in sight to an Azores High/Bartlett meaning SST's mean and HAVE very little affect on coming synoptics unfortuantly

Regards

Chart Viewer

HI Chartviewer, can you let me know why the sst's are set to provide 'much more green' anomalies as I have been watching them for a few months now and in general there have been a decreasing level of +sst's. Even mid atlantic + anomalies have broken down from a huge area to what they are now.

[kold weather]

Chartveiwer,thats a very downbeat look at things,firstly the anomalies should already be severely declinging after the last two weeks with almost constant winds coming from the south yet there seems to be have been no effect on the temps at least for now it seems.

Then you have the idea that the late hurricane season is messing things up.Indeed at least during Autumn you are correct however after two weeks generally the balance returns and things temps should go back to a more normal level,this is what I've observed ovedr the last 3-4 months.

The Azores high/Bartlett high sort of set-up is actually fairly common in both cold and mild winters alike,indeed just as likely I susepct as a northerly set-up.What matters I suppose is what occurs another 30-60 days down the line.Infact even now there are sings that the Azores high will remove itslef and head into the Mid-atlantic and leaving us much more likely to see winds from the W/NW and so temps will soon cool back down to more normal levels mid-month I'd have thought and wit ha set-up much more likely to occur in November.

I can understand what your saying though,teleconnect patterns are more important then SSt's,but really it all relates with each other and you can't have one without affecting the other one.

And just to end on a upbeat note,another chart from a severe winter,look similar,still looking the same sort of charts as has been the case for the last two months:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif

[url=http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1962/Rrea00119621109.gif

Edited November 1, 2005 by kold weather

[Glacier Point]

Morning all.

A post today focussing on the developing cold pool mid-Atlantic and how it might influence the winter.

There are four key areas of Sea Surface Temperature Anamalies (SSTAs) across the northern hemisphere that are driving a major influence on the jet pattern at present.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

These are the warm anomaly in the western Pacific; the vertical alignment of cold, warm and cold pools in the eastern Pacific, the amorphous warm blob in the central Atlantic and cold pooling to our north.

One developing situation is a notable area of cold pooling within the warm central Atlantic, not shown very well by the Unisys analysis, far better by the NOAA:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data...t.11.1.2005.gif

Surrounded by converging air over the warm anomalies, this area could develop into quite a strong a persistent feature, most likely a strong mean high pressure area.

Whilst this may not fit the profile of a perfect -ve NAO pattern (it would have to be much further south of its current position), if this persisted I would suggest that it would form a useful feature in helping to trough the polar jet just to the south of the UK, setting up an interesting west-east battleground scenario.

However, caution is urged as if the polar jet leaves the USA on a much higher trajectory we could find a re-run of last year's warm northerlies as tropical air is funnelled over the top of the high pressure block. Once again, the trajectory of the polar jet over the 'States provides for me the key determinant of the winter pattern.

Other notes of caution are that this feature may disappear completely, as the last NCEP forecast predicts:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/anal...s/glbSSTSea.gif

The updated forecast due in the next week will be very interesting to see how this is modelled, so one to keep an eye on at present.

Regards GP

[SteveB]

The latest SST's look promising,

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Potent cold pooling in the mid atlantic and between Eastern Canada and Greenland. The latest sea ice backs this up with what looks like a large Iceberg? forming.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/arctic.jpg

I have no access to the SST anom chart from previous years, so unable to compare if it is any better or worse than in previous years.

[J10]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.5.html Gives the Sea Ice compared to average,

[SteveB]

Thanx Jackone,

[TG312274]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.5.html Gives the Sea Ice compared to average,

Ice formation above the long-term mean now in Region 5.

[summer blizzard]

On the sea ice front it is encoraging to know that sea ice in the Greenland basin is above average and that ice levels in the Greenland basin are currently on par with that of mid January, i consider this a very good thing.

As for the cold anomoly in the middle of the Atlantic, although is is sufficiently far west that it could be considered a good thing and produce a senario similar to that of Glacier Point has said, i would only consider it a good thing if the main posotive anomolies were to the south of the negative anomoly as this would indicate most energy going into the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream, however, as it is not i would not be forecasting a very easterly December however due to the negative anomolies in the GIN area, there is the potential for a very northerly December, at the very least, i would not forecast a dominance of the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream.

[SMU]

Evening ALL--

Some Important Changes over the last few weeks in terms of SST' Patterns-

PDO-

With the Strong polar Vortex over the Gulf of Alaska in recent weeks- upwelling continues in the North East pacific-

This has developed more Cold anomalies which will act as a buffer against the warmer anomalies to the South which stretch back to the Japanese Coast-

This Colder Upwelling continues to drop the PDO further into Negative-

In terms of the US The theaory in terms of PDO being Neg will be a Strong Pacific Jet - Trough on the West Coast- Ridge on the East - Coast- This is indicitive of a Neutral to NEGATIVE PNA Pattern NOT POSITIVE-

Greenland / Labrador as well has seen Stormy weather lately- especially across the Southern side-Again we have had Cold upwelling Developing dropping the SST's into -VE anomalies- This again will act as a buffer against the warmer Surface currnets pushing North-

Should this upwelling continue this will push the Colder SST's South- which is a better picture in terms of moving towards a complimentary SST' pattern for a Negative NAO-

Looking at ENSO regions 1/2 & 3/4 a La Nina is developing- and is worth keeping an eye on- just based on this sentence -

ANY FORECAST basing its forecast around the parameter of a Neutral ENSO is WRONG and needs to be updated- ( This includes any forecast planning a +VE PDO, +VE PNA- Its Not going to Happen........ )

As for the NAO- Medium term outlooks look for significant drops over Early December, Mid Dec & Early Jan, also March- ( Based on MJO oscillation)

Finally- if anyone uses the PNA & NAO data PLEASE use the CDC Data NOT the CPC data- the CPC Methodology is different and not valid- ( I seem to remember someone mentioned the other day the NAO looked wrong)

Best regards

Steve

Edited November 5, 2005 by Steve Murr

[kold weather]

Just a qucikie about La Nina,its trying to go La Nina definatly BUT I think the key thing is it also went the exact same way in March.I'd suggest that while its trying to go La nina it won't make it and eventually by the star tof next year will likely go back to Neutral.Still its gonig to be worth watching to see if it continues to develop like it is,would like to see the cold anomilies go further out to the west first though.

Certainly the synoptic set-up is suggesting that we are seeing a possible La Nina trying but lets just watch.

[smhouston]

what is a La Nina?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

what is a La Nina?

Opposite to EL NINO, hope you know what EL NINO is?!

BFTP

[smhouston]

Opposite to EL NINO, hope you know what EL NINO is?!

BFTP

haven't a clue

[Typhoon John]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o - wikipedia entry for El Nino and La Nina.

[Glacier Point]

Evening ALL--

Some Important Changes over the last few weeks in terms of SST' Patterns-

PDO-

With the Strong polar Vortex over the Gulf of Alaska in recent weeks- upwelling continues in the North East pacific-

This has developed more Cold anomalies which will act as a buffer against the warmer anomalies to the South which stretch back to the Japanese Coast-

This Colder Upwelling continues to drop the PDO further into Negative-

In terms of the US The theaory in terms of PDO being Neg will be a Strong Pacific Jet - Trough on the West Coast- Ridge on the East - Coast- This is indicitive of a Neutral to NEGATIVE PNA Pattern NOT POSITIVE-

Greenland / Labrador as well has seen Stormy weather lately- especially across the Southern side-Again we have had Cold upwelling Developing dropping the SST's into -VE anomalies- This again will act as a buffer against the warmer Surface currnets pushing North-

Should this upwelling continue this will push the Colder SST's South- which is a better picture in terms of moving towards a complimentary SST' pattern for a Negative NAO-

Looking at ENSO regions 1/2 & 3/4 a La Nina is developing- and is worth keeping an eye on- just based on this sentence -

ANY FORECAST basing its forecast around the parameter of a Neutral ENSO is WRONG and needs to be updated- ( This includes any forecast planning a +VE PDO, +VE PNA- Its Not going to Happen........ )

As for the NAO- Medium term outlooks look for significant drops over Early December, Mid Dec & Early Jan, also March- ( Based on MJO oscillation)

Finally- if anyone uses the PNA & NAO data PLEASE use the CDC Data NOT the CPC data- the CPC Methodology is different and not valid- ( I seem to remember someone mentioned the other day the NAO looked wrong)

Best regards

Steve

Our friends over at wxrisk.com certainly know their stuff. Two issues I would guard against though:-

1. Predicating the mean troughing forecast in the eastern Pacific on currently observed SSTA / AO is a little dicey, particularly as the Pacific Jet is likely to become unstable and could go the other way (although agreed at the moment this looks only likely in relation to MJO).

2. Calling La Nina is a little early - we need much more evidence than currently shown and reassuring noises from NOAA and last UKMO 3.4 region place it somewhere between 0 and -1. If it carried on for another month or two, then I think we could be justified in the La Nina pronostication. Also, I'm not sure about the movement of the cold pooling off the western coast of N.America - seems to be translating eastwards a little.

So ENSO neutral for me until I see more evidence.

Definately worth keeping an eye on though and could yet scupper many a LRF although I think fortunatley for us we have our own set of SSTAs to insulate against any mild tendencies from an invigorated polar jet- still I'd prefer a jet over Florida than Newfoundland!

GP