Sst's And Sea Ice - Trends

[smith25]

Smith,

Have another look at them charts.  The cold anomolies are quite clearly expanding!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes i know that is what i was pointing out to joy of cornwall.

[Matty M]

Nice to see some cold anomalies to our north this year..

Those northerlies might hold that extra bite.

Even if we get a tiny bit colder because of it it will help.

The previous years i recall northerlies with temperatures just

too high. 3-4c by day instead of 2-3c. :blink:

[The PIT]

We mustn't forget [Have I got this all wrong?], that these SST charts are showing anomalies and not actual temperatures??  

Now (the way I see it? ), the seas around Greenland/Iceland have cooled earlier this autumn than they would normally do. But, in the long term, seawater can get no colder than -2C? What this means [i think] is that as winter progresses, the negative anomalies will either shift elsewhere or disappear altogether - but it won't mean that the actual SST is necessarily increasing though?? :blink:  

IMO, if the SSTs to our north and northwest settle at or around the thirty-year mean during the coming winter, we COULD be in for a treat???  

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Doh didn't think of that. Too simple really.

[smith25]

Nice to see some cold anomalies to our north this year..

Those northerlies might hold that extra bite.

Even if we get a tiny bit colder because of it it will help.

The previous years i recall northerlies with temperatures just

too high. 3-4c by day instead of 2-3c. :blink:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes it could certainly make the differerence when it comes to a marginal snow event.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

We mustn't forget [Have I got this all wrong?], that these SST charts are showing anomalies and not actual temperatures??  

Now (the way I see it? :lol: ), the seas around Greenland/Iceland have cooled earlier this autumn than they would normally do. But, in the long term, seawater can get no colder than -2C? What this means [i think] is that as winter progresses, the negative anomalies will either shift elsewhere or disappear altogether - but it won't mean that the actual SST is necessarily increasing though??  

IMO, if the SSTs to our north and northwest settle at or around the thirty-year mean during the coming winter, we COULD be in for a treat???  

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Peter

Excellently put...everyone should understand that.

BFTP

[Wayneywoo]

Yes i know that is what i was pointing out to joy of cornwall.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Oops, sorry smith.

[summer blizzard]

Here is the current sea surface temperature anomoly...

[Methuselah]

Thanks SB. The area between Iceland and Greenland is still showing promise. B)

[yido]

Is it also the first time this autumn that the greens of the north sea are being replaced by blues?

Almost like the reds of north london being replaced after many years with blues and whites!!!!

COYS

[SnowPersonIII]

Its just getting bigger and better , spreading towards Scotland and the atlantic seems to be cooling? This may be just me ... B)

[TG312274]

Is the warm anomaly to the west of Spain a good or bad sign? Does warm SST's in that area help keep the NAO negative?

[J10]

Current Sea Ice position for Greenland

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.5.html

and Using the other links all of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere can be found.

[The Enforcer]

Current Sea Ice position for Greenland

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.5.html

and Using the other links all of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere can be found.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That graph clearly shows a positive anomaly. Unlike SM to make a mistake (he suggested it was spot on average in another thread), unless he was referring to a alternative data set as the average.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Looks to me like Greenland sea ice is currently just above what was being recorded in November last year,ahead of the game as they say ? B)

[The Enforcer]

This is an example of what I was harping on about in one of the other threads.

If cold air is channeled in our direction, there is a risk that the mild air that we're currently getting would surge up over Greenland instead. This would slow down sea ice development and undermine the persistance of negative SST anomalies in that area, thus hindering the long-term prospects for Greenland High south-eastward expansion later in the winter (not ignoring importance of Polar Jet strength/PNA/PDO/NAO/AO etc).

Edited October 16, 2005 by The Enforcer

[SMU]

That graph clearly shows a positive anomaly. Unlike SM to make a mistake (he suggested it was spot on average in another thread), unless he was referring to a alternative data set as the average.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Evening Enforcer-

No I was referring to that chart ( as well as another couple of daily ice updated charts somewhere else as well which shows the trend continuing)- It shows that any anomaly is Now currently all but wiped out- Any current anomaly is negligable...

S

[The Enforcer]

Evening Enforcer-

No I was referring to that chart ( as well as another couple of daily ice updated charts somewhere else as well which shows the trend continuing)- It shows that any anomaly is Now currently all but wiped out- Any current anomaly is negligable...

S

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes you are right, but it's still significantly better than last year. How does it compare with the other winters of the 00's though? When was the last time a year was above the 1979-1990 average?

Unfortunately, it looks like mild air heading that way via the UK until Wednesday, which may cause the anomaly to drop further, until the air source turns Arctic once more, until saturday, according to the latest UKMO.

[Optimus Prime]

which may cause the anomaly to drop further, until the air source turns Arctic once more, until saturday, according to the latest UKMO.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Are you sure a little bit of mild air can up the negative anomolies up there at the moment?

I think it'll take one hell of a warm spell to cool down them cold anomolies up there. And I don't really believe mild air warms up the seas that significantly.

[The Enforcer]

OP, I take your point, hence the use of the word 'may'. It does seem to be exceptionally mild air though and the situation up there is rather precarious, with a positive anomaly lurking amongst the negative areas.

[The Enforcer]

Time for a general progress update for GIN SSTs for October on a week by week basis:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-051002.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-051009.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-051016.gif

Negative anomalies generally holding position. Positive anomaly also growing between them. Also, trend towards average SSTs to the west of Greenland. The situation in Oct 2002, whilst similar, was a lot more fluid.

EDIT: October 2002 not 2003.

Edited October 16, 2005 by The Enforcer

[Optimus Prime]

Great to see the negative anomaly to the north of us is still hanging on. Whilst the postitives on the main are becoming cooler.

If you're after a full blown cold easterly, those positive anomolies to the east of us are a little worrying. But on the plus side may help to pick up on large ammounts of moisture as the cold air comes across slightly warmer waters?

Still looking ok, would like to see the seas inbetween Alaska and Russia cool down some what...

[J10]

Not Only is there a huge anolomy as you say between Russia and Alaska, the Sea Ice is that area is hugely below average too. Not Good.

[The Enforcer]

I wonder if it is the colder than average SSTs in the GIN area that are contributing to the expansion of the Greenland High that is forecast for the end of the week:

Edited October 16, 2005 by The Enforcer

[TG312274]

How can a winter season kick off on November 15? For me winter doesn't start till mid December really.

There have been various posts saying colder conditions are expected over the next week or so over Scandinavia and Russia. I'm sure people will be keeping an eye on them.

[Optimus Prime]

The whole situation is similar to 2003, a warm late summer extending well into Autumn with a lot of latent heat across mainland Europe.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not to sure about that. October 2003 was significantly cooler then average with winds mainly from the north and north east. However, November was mostly mild. And December was on the cold side.

This is year has so far been completely different to 2003. The summer is nowhere near as warm and the autumn is not as cool as 2003...so far.

As many people have pointed out many times, the continent can and has millions of times before, cooled down extremely rapidly. And I can see that to start taking place next week