Sst's And Sea Ice - Trends

[The Enforcer]

I had noticed the cold pool also. What has to be considered is that the SST's in January will most likely not resemble the ones we have currently.

However, am I right in surmising that if the cold pool remains between Iceland and Norway, that it would inhibit the formation of LP's in that area and consequently bring about the possibility of a strong SH?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it's more important that the cold anomaly spreads westwards to envelop the GIN sea between Iceland and Greenland. Previous winters, especially 2001/2002 have seen cold anomalies in the area you mention, but these are outweighed by massive positive anomalies further East that allow LPs to form. It appears that these LP systems have enough clout to push back any westwards HP development over the cold anomalies.

[Big Bear]

but we definately have a colder pool to our NE than last year or other recent years. Lets hope the colder water mass can cool surrounding waters further south and drop those SSTs in the north sea. Not particularly good for lake effect snow from the east as we know but the general sea temps around the British Isles are quite a bit above normal.

I agree about the cold pooling needing to reach the deaths corridor gap between Iceland & greenland. Any Atlantic lows going up there are going to kick the s**t out of any northerly incursions later this year.

[The Enforcer]

but we definately have a colder pool to our NE than last year or other recent years. Lets hope the colder water mass can cool surrounding waters further south and drop those SSTs in the north sea. Not particularly good for lake effect snow from the east as we know but the general sea temps around the British Isles are quite a bit above normal.

I agree about the cold pooling needing to reach the deaths corridor gap between Iceland & greenland. Any Atlantic lows going up there are going to kick the s**t out of any northerly incursions later this year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree that colder seas to the north may make northerly incursions more potent, but the longevity of such incursions (or the opportunity for them to occur at all) is controlled by what happens over the GIN sea area.

Edited September 22, 2005 by The Enforcer

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

That moderately negative anomaly does stand out on the latest charts,looks to be ecpanding too,one to keep an eye on in the months ahead perhaps?

[The Enforcer]

That moderately negative anomaly does stand out on the latest charts,looks to be ecpanding too,one to keep an eye on in the months ahead perhaps?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am making it my vocation in life to keep an eye on it.

[West is Best]

I had noticed the cold pool also. What has to be considered is that the SST's in January will most likely not resemble the ones we have currently.

However, am I right in surmising that if the cold pool remains between Iceland and Norway, that it would inhibit the formation of LP's in that area and consequently bring about the possibility of a strong SH?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Frankly the +ve SST anomaly is pushing north and now covering almost the whole north Atlantic. If this process goes on for another 4-6 weeks then I virtually guarantee that that's the end of prospects for an icy winter (N.B. that doesn't mean cold snaps won't happen)

[smith25]

Frankly the +ve SST anomaly is pushing north and now covering almost the whole north Atlantic. If this process goes on for another 4-6 weeks then I virtually guarantee that that's the end of prospects for an icy winter (N.B. that doesn't mean cold snaps won't happen)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not to be rude wib but could you change your record it seems to be stuck. yes the ve+ anomoly is in the atlantic but its not masively possitive. Also the positive anolomy further north and around the artic areas has steadly shrunk and over the past few weeks and has become near average which is a big difference to this time last year. Also don't forget that SST's can change very quickly and theres plenty of time for the temps to go either way.

todays:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/U..._sstanomaly.gif

last year:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/AR..._sstanomaly.gif

[The Enforcer]

On balance, I have to say that over the past few days the SST anomalies have generally leaned towards an increased +ve anomaly rather than an increased -ve anomaly in the GIN sea area. However, this does not detract from the fact that these anomalies were already hugely positive by this time of year in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 whereas the 'yellow' zones have yet to form at the same timeframe in 2005.

Please bear in mind that I am merely presenting facts here and whilst being an extreme sceptic of a cold winter actually emerging, I am not trying to exaplorate some fanciful winter forecast out of a set of limited data.

Edited September 24, 2005 by The Enforcer

[West is Best]

Not to be rude wib but could you change your record it seems to be stuck. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not if I think it's right - no.

The +ve anomlaies were more extreme in the arctic circle this time last year, but my judgement in looking at those and other comparative charts is that the +ve anomalies are more widespread this year. Certainly the mid-Atlantic is uniformly +ve compared to last year's -ve.

If the record appears to be playing in the same groove it's because I am convinced that global warming is the most important driving force behind our weather at present. Don't blame me. Having said that, GW cannot always 'win' over other factors, so I certainly don't rule out the possibility of cold snaps this winter.

[smith25]

Not if I think it's right - no.

The +ve anomlaies were more extreme in the arctic circle this time last year, but my judgement in looking at those and other comparative charts is that the +ve anomalies are more widespread this year. Certainly the mid-Atlantic is uniformly +ve compared to last year's -ve.

If the record appears to be playing in the same groove it's because I am convinced that global warming is the most important driving force behind our weather at present. Don't blame me. Having said that, GW cannot always 'win' over other factors, so I certainly don't rule out the possibility of cold snaps this winter.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think your colour blind and need to look at those charts again as the SST's are certainly cooler over the atlantic than this time last year.

Im not a cold ramper im just making sure that peoples warm ramping ALSO doesn't colour there opinion when reading the charts.

[West is Best]

I think your colour blind and need to look at those charts again as the SST's are certainly cooler over the atlantic than this time last year. 

Im not a cold ramper im just making sure that peoples warm ramping ALSO doesn't colour there opinion when reading the charts.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Oh really? Well that's very interesting. Now have a look again at these two charts and tell me what you see my friend, and everyone else who read your post:

2004:

2005:

QUOD ERAT DEMONSTRANDUM

Edited September 24, 2005 by West is Best

[SteveB]

One thing I notice WIB is that to the north of the UK and to the West of Norway, In 2004, there is a yellow-ish colour. This year it is a blue- colour.

[kold weather]

Thats intresting idea Ian,on West post you can see that area of below average SSt's and thats exactly where the Azores high set-up shop for a suprsing amount of last winter.what can't be argued is just how above average the atlantic is at present,the area that needs alot of attention is the NE of the U.S,because if they have a cold winter like expected and SST's are like that its just asking for a powerful PFJ pushing through and probably ruining our chances of a cold winter overall,still things will change no doubt and 3-4 months is a fair time in terms of SST change,but the cooler SST's to the north of that mass is intresting and worth watching,esp if it does encourage HP cells to form there.

Edited September 24, 2005 by kold weather

[West is Best]

One thing I notice WIB is that to the north of the UK and to the West of Norway, In 2004, there is a yellow-ish colour. This year it is a blue- colour.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Absolutely - to the far north (and it is far) it has definitely been cooler. Trouble is it looks as if the warmer anomaly is pushing into that area, squeezing it out. I really don't think the seas to the far north have a huge impact: at least certainly not in the way that the mid-Altantic and GIN corridor do. On the other hand, to be fair if we retain -ve anomalies to the north and we get a northerly it would, logically, follow that it's going to help! The only fly in that very large sea-ointment is that beyond the -ve anomaly is a pretty potent +ve anomaly in the arctic.

2004 Far north:

2005 Far north:

(p.s. if I carry on with artistry of this quality I'll be vying for the Turner prize )

Edited September 24, 2005 by West is Best

[SteveB]

I can never seem to work that one out WIB, When ever someone posts up SST trends,it always seems that some of the highest +ve is in the northern latitudes.

[smith25]

Oh really? Well that's very interesting. Now have a look again at these two charts and tell me what you see my friend, and everyone else who read your post:

2004:

2005:

QUOD ERAT DEMONSTRANDUM

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ahhh so your just picking on the smaller areas how about thinking about the overall temperatures with IS overall cooler than this time last year. and the area north of the UK is also colder than this time last year.

[West is Best]

Ahhh so your just picking on the smaller areas how about thinking about the overall temperatures with IS overall cooler than this time last year. and the area north of the UK is also colder than this time last year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

:lol:

[smith25]

:lol:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[summer blizzard]

In my opinion, the current sea surface temperature anomolies are a lot more faviourable than last year, we have a below average GIN sea however i would like there to be a widespread 1C below average anomoly at least, hopefully that will occur, another faviourable anomoly is the warm anomolies in the mid Atlantic, which should bring the Jet Stream further south and a negative anomoly near Bermuda, this should keep the Bermuda-Azores High there, these anomolies should ensure a negative NAO however due to the position of the anomolies, there is a danger of a winter similar to 1998, if there is a cold winter, i would not expect large amounts of rainfall/snowfall, it would most likely be a 1963 type winter rather than a 1947 type winter.

[Optimus Prime]

There are some nice signs to the north now. Although some mild sea temperature anomalies around north east Greenland there has been some more substantial cold pooling around much of the north. More particularly around the coasts of Iceland.

Also the warm anomolies across the rest of the north hemisphere are showing signs of cooling down.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I agree there are positive signs, overall, on this matter.  However I wouldn't go as far out to suggest a 1988 winter at this stage on the one hand or a 1947 or 1963 on the other. The latter is certainly unlikely to me.

Anyway it is still far to early to come up with any definitive prediction of any kind. Just watch what happens and unfolds without overdetailed analysis - at least some good indications at this stage.

SP

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

SP

Have you seen the latest GFS run...that would be nice look at the GHP

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

The latest sea surface temperature charts increase my hope for a below average winter, the GIN area negative anomoly is increasing, and the posotive anomoly in the mid Atlantic Ocean is weakening, all we need now is for the negative anomoly near Bermuda to ncrease in size and strength and keep these kind of anomolies present throughout November, December and January as there is a one month time lag before synoptic effects take place in my opinion.

[shuggee]

But I noticed today that there is a +ve anomaly further north than the GIN corridor - now registering at +1.71C. Where's this heading? And what effect could this have?

I remember in late Feb when the jet disappeared exceptionally far north - and we had the easerly spell; is this an encouraging sign for this to occur once again?

[SMU]

But I noticed today that there is a +ve anomaly further north than the GIN corridor - now registering at +1.71C.  Where's this heading?  And what effect could this have?

I remember in late Feb when the jet disappeared exceptionally far north - and we had the easerly spell; is this an encouraging sign for this to occur once again?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Evening All-

Some excellent recovery signs coming from the last ice pack over the last week although theres a long way to go-

Overall Coverage is almost back to the average- with a sharp incline-

With Greenland on an excellent current trend-

Follow this animation- you can clearly see Greenland looking Strong this year for ice pack- where as Eastern Russia is looking poor- this does go hand in hand with the early low values of Eurasian Snowcover-

Animation-

2004- Oct 01

2005- Oct 01

Notice Mongolia and the central mountains over Asia how NO snow...

Whats annoying is Iceland has more Snow- but because its over a relative small area- it doesnt really mean anything....

Regards

Steve

Edited October 2, 2005 by Steve Murr

[The Enforcer]

That 1st October chart posted by OP really does represent the opposite of what normally happens in the Iceland-Greenland area. Normally, one would expect to see concentrated blobs of yellow/red. Something must be causing the rapid cooling in those specific areas. I expect this is part of the usual October hoax, where something always indicates a traditional winter is in store, or conditions arise that would be perfect in January, never to be repeated. Until next October of course.

The positive area that Shuggee has spotted has been lurking for some while. It has been threatening to go yellow, but has not repeated last year - yet.