Sst's And Sea Ice - Trends

[John Cox]

The current sea surfact temperture anomolies are very encouraging, due to the fact that the cold anomolies are spreading down the eastern side of Greenland indicating that the ice may now be forming there ahead of schedule, there is also a cold anomoly developing in eastern Canada which may spread westward and even better, the posotive anomolies in the middle of the Atlantic are disipating, as long as the posotive anomoly does not get any closer to the British Isles and neither do any cold anomolies, then November is looking very promising, as is the winter as a whole.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi Summar Blizzard,

Yes this is very incouraging.

Look at the difference between 13th Oct and 23rd October.

Quite a difference all round.

This will give us hope as we make our way through the next 2 weeks of mild weather

Regards,

John

Edited October 24, 2005 by John Cox

[Zerouali lives]

Hi Summar Blizzard,

Yes this is very incouraging.

Look at the difference between 13th Oct and 23rd October.

  

Quite a difference all round.

This will give us hope as we make our way through the next 2 weeks of mild weather

Regards,

John

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

As you can see from today's chart, that cold anomaly to the north has shrunk

Sorry as you can see from Summer Blizzards post 3 posts up! :lol:

Edited October 25, 2005 by Zerouali lives

[johnholmes]

hi

just to add a little encouragement here is a chart from this morning on which I have drawn a 'possible' southern limit of zero degrees C temperature line.

and for Scandinavia

regards

John

Edited October 25, 2005 by johnholmes

[John Cox]

As you can see from today's chart, that cold anomaly to the north has shrunk 

Sorry as you can see from Summer Blizzards post 3 posts up! :lol:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The Cold anomolies to the south and West of greenland have increased though.

regards,

John

[John Cox]

hi

just to add a little encouragement here is a chart from this morning on which I have drawn a 'possible' southern limit of zero degrees C temperature line.

and for Scandinavia

regards

John

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi John,

Thanks for these maps, very pretty pictures.

How do these temperatures equate to previous years at the same time.?

Regards,

John

[johnholmes]

Hi John,

Thanks for these maps, very pretty pictures.

How do these temperatures equate to previous years at the same time.?

Regards,

John

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

no idea mate, best ask someone else I'm afraid.

John

[John Cox]

no idea mate, best ask someone else I'm afraid.

John

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ok, thanks John,

Maybe Mr data would have some stats?

Regards,

John

[The Enforcer]

Time to take a step back and look at the SST development for October so far:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-051002.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-051009.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-051016.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-051023.gif

The potent cold anomalies are hanging on in there. Also, there is a general acceleration of cooling at northern lattitudes, so that more of the positive anomalies are closer to average now than at the start of the month.

It's the next month that's going to be the acid test - here's what happened in 2002:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-021027.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-021124.gif

.... nice - just in time for winter.

[John Cox]

Time to take a step back and look at the SST development for October so far:

It's the next month that's going to be the acid test - here's what happened in 2002:

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-021027.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-021124.gif

.... nice - just in time for winter.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi The Enforcer,

It is interesting the anomolies in Nov 2002.

We look on track to bettering that especially between Greenland and Iceland.

Regards,

John

[John Cox]

Yes John - we do!

I agree that the most critical time is about to start. As long as the current 'feed' continues up there I can 'live' with these mild swesterlies and bartlett at this stage. And far bette to see them now than when it really matters. The pattern recently and currently is very much like 1985 I agree with those others that have mentioned it.

We need some catch-up from areas east of the arctic and a general cool-down over Europe. But one thing at a time.

SP

SP

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi Tamara,

I agree. I think it is the mild temperatures that make winter seem like a long way off.

We had a temp of 18C here in Dublin, which for this time of the year is exceptional.

I agree it really is a waiting game over the next few weeks to see if Russia and eastern regions in general cool down.

Strangely I would nearly prefer a regular mild winter than one like last year (I know you got a lost of snow days in your area).

I remember so vividly those winters of the late seventies, eighties and early nineties with those bitterly cold easterlies with driving snow.

That’s the type of winter I want, Yes I know the northerlies can bring snow too but they tend to be short lived.

To me my patience will wait for another year or two if we can see a general synoptic change continuing like we did last winter but with the cold setting in January rather than late February like this year.

Asking for too much??

I think not.

Regards,

John

[DerbyshireSnow]

Hi everyone, just checking in for the winter, having made little or no contribution last winter!

Just wondering - should we also be keeping an eye on the positive anomaly near the azores (actually, west of Portugal, but it's close!!), as this would surely encourage the NAO to remain negative.

Is this as important as having a cold GIN sea anomaly, or just a red herring?

[SMU]

Afternoon All-

Once again for the endless references for Queries regarding where we do and dont want warm & Cold pooling to be observed here is the Correlation chart for SST best fit pattern for a NEGATIVE NAO pattern

This is the Strongest signal that we can use to Forecast NAO at the moment-

Remember its NOT just about the GIN corrisoor- its Global especially taking into Consideration the Negative PDO-

If you refer to the Current Unysis Map- The pacific side is almost Spot on- even down to the developing Cold pool of Japan-

Atlantic side whilst NOT quite perfect EVERY day is seemingly inching towards an almost perfect analogue....

Much reason to be happy inspite of some of the more recent Weather and postings on the board

Steve

Edited October 25, 2005 by Steve Murr

[Glacier Point]

Afternoon All-

Much reason to be happy inspite of some of the more recent Weather and postings on the board

Steve

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Indeed, much to be pleased for the longer term prospects.

Evening all.

Today's 12Z GFS 200 hPa modelling mirrors well the SSTA pattern across the Pacific, Atlantic and Western Europe:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hemi.jet.html

which shows the divergence of the east Asian jet over the Pacific in line with the warm anomaly there; the low trajectory flow over Florida and downstream ridge in the central south-western Atlantic; troughing over the northern Atlantic in line with the warm anomalies there; some split flow into northern Africa corresponding with the warm anomalies SW of Iberia and west European ridging into Scandinavia care of the downstream effects of the Atlantic trough and the effects of warm anomalies in the North and Baltic Seas alied to a slightly cooler Mediterranean.

In short, there is almost a perfect correlation between SSTAs and jet patterns. This has been the case now for some time, possibly since May.

In the short to medium term, I see no reason why the pattern should not change markedly. The Ferrel cell is programmed to progress eastwards and transfer the wave pattern mid Atlantic and assist ridging of the Azores High with a slight rise in pressure over the UK as it does so by the 12Z ECMWF:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...2512!!/

This should only be a transient feature before the cell withdraws westwards - drawn in by a flattening of the sub-tropical jetstream over southern California.

After this I think further troughing in the mid Atlantic will arise with height anomalies once again over Scandinavia keeping the UK in a very wet and windy but unseasonably mild pattern well into November.

Before the SACRA members reach for the bottle, don't despair, it will only be a matter of time before the descending jet over the USA, the decrease in tropical storm activity, the increased stength of the Polar Cell and a falling off of SST anomalies across the Seas of western Europe shifts the whole pattern southwards. I would suggest the best thing to happen at present which would hasten this would be for the warm anomaly off Iberia sinks southwards and ideally a little further west.

So far so good.

Regards GP

Edited October 25, 2005 by Glacier Point

[John Cox]

Afternoon All-

Much reason to be happy inspite of some of the more recent Weather and postings on the board

Steve

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi Steve,

It is good to see you and GP post again.

I have this feeling that all this warm weather is a precursor to a cold winter.

You guys only confirm this feeling <_<

One thing is certain I think the NAO will be negative

We will wait and see.

Regards,

John

Edited October 25, 2005 by John Cox

[SMU]

Hi Steve,

It is good to see you and GP post again.

I have this feeling that all this warm weather is a precursor to a cold winter.

You guys only confirm this feeling <_<

One thing is certain I think the NAO will be negative

We will wait and see.

Regards,

John

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Evening John- Ive been following a forecast for the NAO that relates to the cycles of the MJO-

Seeing as theres nothing in the models showing- The next forecast for a significant Negative NAO pattern to develop is the last day or so of Nov into the first week of Dec - which the forecaster is saying this will usher in some severe wintry weather...

We Shall see.....

Steve

Edited October 25, 2005 by Steve Murr

[The Enforcer]

.... over Siberia?

I presume you mean the UK?

Unfortunately our friendly cold anomalies to the north-west are not doing anything to shift this persistant Bartlett-driven southerly flow.

Edited October 25, 2005 by The Enforcer

[John Cox]

Evening John- Ive been following a forecast for the NAO that relateds to the cycles of the MJO-

Seeing as theres nothing in the models showing- The next forecast for a significant Negative NAO pattern to develop is the last day or so of Nov into the first week of Dec - which the forecaster is saying this will usher in some severe wintry weather...

We Shall see.....

Steve

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi Steve,

TBO if that is the case, and I dont doubt it, that will do nicely.

AS you say, we shall see.,,,,

It is really a waiting game at the moment....

I think we and others have the patience.

Regards,

John

[Slinky]

The SST analysis is at a more encouraging point now than it was in late October 2002, the acid test is to see what the position is at the end of November.

As GP says, the Bartlett pattern that we are in now will eventually break as the jet pattern changes. Synoptically I am more encouraged by this southerly pattern than a traditional Bartlett sat over Southern Europe pulling in South Westerlies.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ian, please stop using words like encouraged, as coming from you i am starting to get ramped up lol i use your posts as a grounder so as not to get too disapointed, and be realistic!!

Now all we need is WIB to say theres a chance..........

(then we really will need a new definition of ramping) <_<

[John Cox]

Ian, please stop using words like encouraged, as coming from you i am starting to get ramped up lol i use your posts as a grounder so as not to get too disapointed, and be realistic!!

Now all we need is WIB to say theres a chance..........

(then we really will need a new definition of ramping)  <_<

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Agreed slinky,

A small cold ramp from a big warm ramper is worth much more than a big cold ramp from a small cold ramper.

More thinking of WIB

John

Edited October 26, 2005 by John Cox

[Optimus Prime]

I think there will be a lot of "Encouragement" and discouragement on this board over the coming winter.

Views change faster than the GFS F.1

[D KARLSON]

Ian McCasgill once said 'the only safe wind directions in winter are NWerlies and SWerlies'. Meaning that southerlies will often lead to a reverse meridional pattern. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thats something im inclined to agree with ian our traditional weather patterns are westsouthwesterlies a southerly is a departure from the norm therefore could lead to meridomal or blocking type patterns

[Guest Mike W]

I'm not saying it is, because I don't know, but does anyone think the last couple months, September and this month in particular is similar to the same months in 1989. Sorry if that is a bad question by the way.

[Damien]

Bye, bye, Mr. cold pool. Sorry, but to me, it looks to be fading.

[Optimus Prime]

Bye, bye, Mr. cold pool. Sorry, but to me, it looks to be fading.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Unfortuantly I have to agree with you there. Although I don't believe air temperatures make a huge difference to sea temperatures, the upcoming prolonged summer like warmth may make ruins of the cold pooling. Warm pooling moving down from both the north and south.

However, sea anomalies have a tendency to change quickly. Could quite easily loose all the cold pooling we have, yet retain it a few days later.

[Damien]

Unfortuantly I have to agree with you there. Although I don't believe air temperatures make a huge difference to sea temperatures, the upcoming prolonged summer like warmth may make ruins of the cold pooling. Warm pooling moving down from both the north and south.

I don't believe that they will warm up because of that, I believe that they will now start to warm up because that they do this (behave like this) naturally. Look at autumn 2001 - I discovered a few days ago that that had similar patterns to this year's, though mind you the past few mild winters have seen less of that optimism. (Just out of interest while we're going down this road: has anyone got 1995's charts?)

Though mind you it could just be a minor blip and more major cooling begins after today's unprecedented warmth. Let's certainly hope so. :lol: Remember - just because I am against cold weather in October doesn't mean I am against cold or cool SSTs in October.

Edited October 26, 2005 by Damien