Hurricane Rita.

[gobbyash]

With all the news on TV lately about hurricane Katrina & Rita, the sub-zero

weather and snow that the East Coast of the US is experiencing and mud

slides in the Middle East and South America, along with the dire

predictions made by such films as The Day After Tomorrow, we shouldn't

forget that England has its share of devastating weather too. I've

attached a photo illustrating the damage caused to a friend's home from

a storm that passed through Congleton a couple of weeks ago. It really

makes you cherish what you have, and reminds us not to take things for

granted. Take care of yourself and be safe!!!!!!!

[kold weather]

Amazing hurricane this,beating hunrricane Allen into third place with pressure being estimated at 897mbs from recon I believe,sustained winds at 175mph the same as Katrina at its max with a few models still taking it yet higher towards 160kts.Also as I thought the landfall seems to have shifted slightly eastwards putting Galveston into the NE quadrant which is generally the most powerful quadrant when storms move northwards.

[SnowBear]

Not being funny gobbyash but, a lightweight patio chair can be knocked over in a refreshing breeze

Wish I had taken a photo of the tree that was snapped at the bottom of my garden in a t-storm back in June this year

But neither compare in the slightest with winds from hurricanes or tornadoes, nearest we have had to the destruction they get in the US are tornadoes like Birmingham, Peterborough etc this year. (Tornadoes themselves not being unusual in Britain, just most of a low order in strength or in areas with little population)

Thing is about much of what you are seeing now, you now can read and see in real time, so you get to hear of more, see events unfold, news from all over the world there, on screen on every channel and site you wish to look for on the interent, 10 or 20 years ago, you may have seen a little 20 liner in a news paper some days later. Watching in real time, with the mountains of info about now, makes more impact. We also have a higher accuracy in measurements, sat images, reporters, from many sources.

Edited September 22, 2005 by SnowBear

[Lincs Observation]

Even though this storm will prob be a CAT 4 when it makes land fall is it possible that before that , that this system will make CAT 6 status for a time While tracking across the Gulf???

[Hemlock]

is it possible that before that , that this system will make CAT 6 status for a time While tracking across the Gulf???

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

As far as I know, that's impossible on a scale that goes from 1 to 5.

[Nick F]

Apparently Rita is the 3rd most intense Atlantic basin hurricane ever recorded. Hard to comprehend that Rita is now packing gusts of up to 215 mph.

Apparently they are planning to shut down a Nuclear Power plant on elevated ground in Bay City, though it is designed to withstand storm surges from Category 5 hurricanes.

The two reactor containment buildings are made of 4-foot-thick steel-reinforced concrete walls -- strong enough to withstand a Category 5 storm, or the direct impact of a Boeing 767.

They are two of the strongest buildings in Texas. "The plant is designed to withstand tornadic force winds, which are higher than hurricane force winds," Mikus said.

from: http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/09/21/rita.nuclear/index.html

Coordinates:

03 GMT 09/22/05 24.6N 87.2W

Sustained winds: 175mph

Pressure: 897mb

Edited September 22, 2005 by Nick F

[smich]

morning everyone!

What did I miss while I was asleep dreaming of eyewall replacement cycles?

I see pressure is down to 897!

That must be low enough to make your ears ache!

Smich

[turna]

Well its the third strongest in history and may well challenge Gilbert for the no. 1 spot in the next 12 hours before its intensity drops slightly due to eyewall replacement cycles. In any case when it does make landfall (perhaps south of Galveston) it will be at least a strong cat 4 IMO. Is this the perfect storm?

[Kain]

Why do they go through ERC when they have the perfect eyewall anyway?

Never quite understood that?

Kain

[smich]

I think that, at peak intensity,the storms in the outer eye-wall draw the moisture from the inner eyewall so that it can't survive. It kind of evaporates, making the eye appear bigger for a while, until the outer wall grows inwards, "replacing" it.

Smich

[Gray-Wolf]

I see from the stats you are supposed to expect 0.2 Cat. 5 Hurricanes every decade. 2 Cat. 5 Hurricanes in 3 weeks???? what's that about then? Surely an indicator of more than an active season/cycle

EDIT she seems to have been resting for the past 8hrs. Her forcast track has again been adjusted East and is now even closer to Galveston. The 'shift' also has her over the 'warm loop' for longer giving her time to undergo an ERC and strengthen again before she hauls out onto land. On the plus side upper level shear may well help weaken her before landfall......then again.

Edited September 22, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[Roger J Smith]

Not sure how widely known this is in Britain, I imagine many of you have heard about the 1900 storm that destroyed Galveston, known nowadays as the Great Galveston Hurricane. It originated much further east than Rita, and crossed central Cuba before taking up a position in the southeast Gulf a little further north than Tuesday's location for Rita. From there, it steamed directly towards Galveston and crossed the western half of the island where the city is located on the night of September 8-9, 1900. It is estimated that the storm was then a cat-4 hurricane, no real telling what it was over the central Gulf earlier. The city was virtually reduced to rubble by the hurricane and storm surge, and the death toll is estimated to have been 8,000 (some say 12,000) or about one in six of the people who lived there in 1900. This still remains the largest death toll from a natural event in North America, so far the known death toll from Katrina stands at about 1200 and may level off around two to three thousand. The storm basically altered the economic geography of Texas and made Houston a much more prominent city just as the oil boom was about to begin. They built a 15-foot seawall (we'll see how much use that is) along the Gulf shoreline but of course the inner coast of the island is much less protected and a high storm surge could flood in from all sides.

Houston is fairly far inland but not far above sea level, and in a worst-case scenario substantial parts of the city could be under water to a depth of a few feet at least as tidal surges hold back the drainage of local rivers and these flood due to heavy rains. Houston is notorious for flooding in heavy rainfall events without any wind or tidal surge components.

From what I'm seeing on the latest progs and surface obs the most likely landfall for Rita may be around Freeport TX which is about 30 miles southwest of Galveston. The storm is so large and powerful that this separation may not mean much, as people were saying above, the strongest winds will be on the forward side of the eyewall.

Time to check for the latest update, somebody is sure to post it. (time is 22nd 0858z)

[PersianPaladin]

Wow. This thing as become potentially CATASTROPHIC: -

000

WTNT33 KNHC 220832

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 19

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

4 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA MOVING

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG

THE LOUISIANA COAST TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW

IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO

INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE

REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.

AT 4 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE

SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA DURING

THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE

HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO MORGAN CITY

LOUISIANA...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST

OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM

WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE

WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 515 MILES...

830 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 615 MILES... 990

KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...

AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY

FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN

INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM REPORTS BY THE

HURRICANE HUNTER IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES. THIS MEANS RITA IS THE

THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC

BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND

LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE

AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE

WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD

EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE

WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT

INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS

SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA.

AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10

INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND

EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...24.9 N... 88.0 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 897 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

[MAF]

From what I'm seeing on the latest progs and surface obs the most likely landfall for Rita may be around Freeport TX which is about 30 miles southwest of Galveston. The storm is so large and powerful that this separation may not mean much, as people were saying above, the strongest winds will be on the forward side of the eyewall.

Time to check for the latest update, somebody is sure to post it. (time is 22nd 0858z)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Roger, do you have any dimensions for rita? or comparisons i.e Katrina was the size of England.

[PersianPaladin]

000

WTNT43 KNHC 220843

TCDAT3

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

IF RITA HAS NOT PEAKED IN INTENSITY...IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS PRETTY

CLOSE TO DOING SO. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 897 MB...WHICH SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE

DURING THE PAST 8 HR. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE

165 KT IN THE NE EYEWALL...WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE

161 KT OBSERVED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS A

INCREASINGLY STRONG OUTER WIND MAXIMUM THAT IS LIKELY THE START OF

A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE END OF

THE ECLIPSE PERIOD SHOWS WARMING OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.

BASED ON ALL OF THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 150 KT.

RITA HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS

AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/8. RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWS A

STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. LARGE-SCALE MODELS

FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES

AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THIS SHOULD

ALLOW RITA TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITH TIME. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS

NOW CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL BETWEEN THE SABINE RIVER AND

MATAGORDA TEXAS IN 48-60 HR...WITH A NET EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE

GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO

SHIFTED EASTWARD ABOUT 30 N MI...CALLING FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE

BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND GALVESTON BAY. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED

THAT THE NEW TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT OR WEST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF

GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. FIRST...THE

MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WILL LIKELY KEEP RITA OVER THE LOOP CURRENT

LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO THE EFFECT OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT

CONTENT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN THE FIRST

24 HR OR SO. SECOND...THE GFS AND SHIP MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT

SHEAR OVER RITA AFTER 24 HR...WHICH RESULTS IN SHIPS CALLING FOR

SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY

OF WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 12 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY AN

UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EAST OF RITA...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS

SUGGEST THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THE

GFS AND SHIPS MAY BE OVERDOING THE SHEAR. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE

AT LEAST ONE AND POSSIBLE MORE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES BEFORE

LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT

SHEAR AND REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING...

ESPECIALLY AFTER RITA MOVES WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 24-36 HR.

SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THIS WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS CAUSED BY

CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE

OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR SLOW OVERALL WEAKENING BUT

NOT AS MUCH AS SHOWN BY SHIPS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 24.9N 88.0W 150 KT

12HR VT 22/1800Z 25.3N 89.3W 150 KT

24HR VT 23/0600Z 26.1N 91.1W 145 KT

36HR VT 23/1800Z 27.2N 92.8W 140 KT

48HR VT 24/0600Z 28.8N 94.3W 130 KT

72HR VT 25/0600Z 32.0N 95.5W 65 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 26/0600Z 34.1N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 27/0600Z 34.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING

$$

[PersianPaladin]

Looks like it won't sustain Cat 5 status for very long...

It can be a very lonely life when your a Cat 5 and surrounded by high-pressure and imminent land fall....

[smich]

When she went thru the Florida Straights, she was barely big enough to straddle the gap.

Look at her now - 48 hrs later, she virtually straddles the entire Gulf!

Immense. Hurricane warnings will have been issued before the end of play today I think.

I read "Isaac's Storm" recently, all about the 1900 Galveston event. Highly recommended.

Smich

[PersianPaladin]

Here are recent gulf SST'S: -

Looks like if hurricane rita moves NW then it may reach landfall as a Cat 5 if it can enter those warmer waters of the Texan\Louisana coastline.

[Thunder Snow]

There are suggestions Rita is at her peak, and will slowly weaken.

Can anyone confirm

[PersianPaladin]

There are suggestions Rita is at her peak, and will slowly weaken.

Can anyone confirm

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I've just posted that 'suggestion' already. Please scroll up the screen and u will find that confirmed report.

i.e. HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

Edited September 22, 2005 by PersianPaladin

[Thunder Snow]

I've just posted that 'suggestion' already. Please scroll up the screen and u will find that confirmed report.

i.e. HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry i am getting lost, there is alot of posts to keep up with.

A new topic mods please

[P.K.]

There are suggestions Rita is at her peak, and will slowly weaken.

Can anyone confirm

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ten second flight level winds in the NE quad are down from 165kts at the 700hPa flight level at just before 7am BST this morning to 159kts within the last half hour.

[coldfingers]

Sorry i am getting lost, there is alot of posts to keep up with.

A new topic mods please

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Can someone tell me how to talk without replying? SORRY!!!

[Bilz]

What category will it be when it makes landfall?

[Thunder Snow]

I would say cat 4, but i am no expert