Hurricane Rita.

[Mondy]

It's moving west at 13mph.Quite fast really.

Update on the pressure. Has dropped a staggering 68mb in 32 hours! Or 36mb in the last 8 hours. Real possibilty it could go sub-900. All the conditions are right.

Edit: Looking at this again, do i detect a move to the NW at the last frame?

Edited September 21, 2005 by Mondy

[MAF]

It's moving west at 13mph.Quite fast really.

Update on the pressure. Has dropped a staggering 68mb in 32 hours! Or 36mb in the last 8 hours. Real possibilty it could go sub-900. All the conditions are right.

Edit: Looking at this again, do i detect a move to the NW at the last frame?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Mond's is landfall still around 2'ish saturday?

[pinball wizard]

It's moving west at 13mph.Quite fast really.

Update on the pressure. Has dropped a staggering 68mb in 32 hours! Or 36mb in the last 8 hours. Real possibilty it could go sub-900. All the conditions are right.

Edit: Looking at this again, do i detect a move to the NW at the last frame?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

cruste! Thats fast turning into a beast then it seems to have grown in diameter quite quickly too.

[Mondy]

Mond's is landfall still around 2'ish saturday?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thinkso, mate. Not really been checking the landfall times of recent.More astounded with the formation and pressure gradient of the thing!

Edit: I'm pretty sure that Rita has shifted course to WNW. Anyone agree back me up on this or am just imagining?

If that's the case, brings a whole new dimension on this.

Edited September 21, 2005 by Mondy

[Joneseye]

From a relatively novice point of view the rate of intensification over the last 36 hours is phenomenal. Are there any of the tell-tale signs of weakening or slowing in it's growth?

Will the time of day have any major impact? It must be about 1400 in the afternoon at the moment. When it reaches the evening local time does anyone expect the rate of strengthening to slow down or will this not really impact it?

[londonsnow]

Thinkso, mate. Not really been checking the landfall times of recent.More astounded with the formation and pressure gradient of the thing!

Edit: I'm pretty sure that Rita has shifted course to WNW. Anyone agree back me up on this or am just imagining?

If that's the case, brings a whole new dimension on this.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

looks like it has a bit yes

[kold weather]

just thought I'd say from tommorow afternoon I'm going to start saving images from this system,might take a few tonight as well,a similar thing to what I done with Katrina as it headed towards NO.

By the way,my personal landfall predction is 140mph,pressure at 940mbs,system peaking out at 905mbs and winds at 165mph,just a quick predction,also I think we are seeing a slight WNW moving,not much but every bit of lattiude gianied from this system will mean quite alot later down the line.The thing that also needs to be watched is when,or IF this system gets a eyewall replacement cycle,that will be vital as to see whether its on a strengthening or weakening trend as it pushes into landfall,this is also vital as to see what its peak strength wil lbe,once pressure stops decreasing,then its likely reached its highest MPI it can go in the area,unless it goes annular(ps,good call from summer blizzard last night)

I personally think if this thing keeps up its pace,then expect to comein late morning on Saturday.

Edited September 21, 2005 by kold weather

[Mondy]

From a relatively novice point of view the rate of intensification over the last 36 hours is phenomenal. Are there any of the tell-tale signs of weakening or slowing in it's growth?

Will the time of day have any major impact? It must be about 1400 in the afternoon at the moment. When it reaches the evening local time does anyone expect the rate of strengthening to slow down or will this not really impact it?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi. There is a high pressure system to the north of it. Moving east.

But, at this rate, she'll be eating the HP up! Am dumbfounded with the pressure.

Overnight last night she became a Cat 3, so nothing stopping her intensifying over this evening. I guess :blink:

[January Snowstorm]

I remember I watched the day after tomorrow with my girlfriend and I found it awesome because I knew that maybe just maybe the weather could get real nasty some time soon.She thought it was pure fiction,which of course it was though all us weatherbuffs also know that weather is a strange phenomenon!

George W you have been warned!! Take globalwarming seriously or we all in trouble

[pinball wizard]

Hi. There is a high pressure system to the north of it. Moving east.

But, at this rate, she'll be eating the HP up! Am dumbfounded with the pressure.

Overnight last night she became a Cat 3, so nothing stopping her intensifying over this evening. I guess :blink:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Although it is strengthening quickly now, I expect it to make landfall cat 4/3 it will soon lose power once it gets close to the land. Are there any estimates as to expected rainfall totals?

[londonsnow]

Although it is strengthening quickly now, I expect it to make landfall cat 4/3 it will soon lose power once it gets close to the land. Are there any estimates as to expected rainfall totals?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I guess if it speeded up it would have less time to weaken over land? what speed did katrina hit at?

[Mondy]

Although it is strengthening quickly now, I expect it to make landfall cat 4/3 it will soon lose power once it gets close to the land. Are there any estimates as to expected rainfall totals?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree PW. In a sense she is maybe peaking now and (within 48 hours) belly out thus reducing her power. Again, we just need to wait.

Still concerned with the slight WNW movement. As KW says, if EWR (eyewall replacement) does soon take place how much off a wobble will that put her off course (or on course - whichever you prefer)!

[pinball wizard]

I agree PW. In a sense she is maybe peaking now and (within 48 hours) belly out thus reducing her power. Again, we just need to wait.

Still concerned with the slight WNW movement. As KW says, if EWR (eyewall replacement) does soon take place how much off a wobble will that put her off course (or on course - whichever you prefer)!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yeah good point there mondy, seem to remember Katrina changed course a bit following EWR??? or was I just dreaming that up :blink:

[Mondy]

Didn't Katrina have a few EWR's? Can't remember :blink:

Edited September 21, 2005 by Mondy

[pinball wizard]

Didn't Katrina have a few  EWR's? Can't remember :blink:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yea I think so , but I remember how she changed course with about 24 hrs to go.

[summer blizzard]

I think that Hurricane Katrina only had one eyewall replacement cycle, the night before landfall, if Hurricane Rita underwant a eyewall replacement cycle now, that would be a worst case senario as Hurricane Rita would have had time before landfall to restrengthen.

[rixxxgolf]

Looking at the high level winds, I think Rita will EWR twice and wallop at a cat 4.

[rixxxgolf]

But, in an strange way, there is something I don't trust about the make-up of Rita. Something doesn't look or feel right, 24 hours ago we had 4 active hurricanes, Phillipe being the closest, and He has died off very rapidly.

Something is bothering me and I fear it's in a bad way.

[Mondy]

Phillipe is forecast to do cartwheels :huh: Some models take him south again!

I now think we have a CAT 5. Fox news reporting Cat 5 and if you adjust the recent flight level winds at 156+, that's a 5 on scale.

Definte shift wnw here

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Edited September 21, 2005 by Mondy

[londonsnow]

Phillipe is forecast to do cartwheels  :huh: Some models take him south again!

I now think we have  a CAT 5. Fox news reporting Cat 5 and if you adjust the recent flight level winds at 156+, that's a 5 on scale.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

yeah reports coming in of a 5

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

This of help?

Tropical Cyclone Position and Intensity Data

Id Name Date Time Lat(10ths) Lon(10ths) Dir of Motion Speed(10ths)

18L RITA 20050921 1800 243N 0862W 270 110

18L RITA 20050921 1200 243N 0853W 275 110

18L RITA 20050921 0600 242N 0840W 280 120

18L RITA 20050921 0000 240N 0827W 275 110

18L RITA 20050920 1800 239N 0817W 275 140

18L RITA 20050920 1200 237N 0803W 279 130

If "Dir of Motion" is degrees on a compass Rita's latest recorded movement is directly west, having previously been more to the north.

[P.K.]

161kt 10 second average, 160kt 30 second average. :huh: :huh:

SXXX50 KNHC 211938

AF300 1418A RITA HDOB 27 KNHC

1931. 2432N 08607W 03050 5372 134 156 076 076 159 02684 0000000100

1932 2431N 08608W 03054 5424 134 160 080 080 161 02636 0000000100

[SnowBear]

I dont know, I think this could be around about the TX/LA border for landfall.

[Mondy]

Yeah P.K. Appears to be 4 Hurricane Hunter planes on the go plus an additional US Navy aircraft. So info/data should come through regularly - big change from this morning when all the aircraft had electrical faults and were grounded!!

[kold weather]

I've got a feeling this is going to be upgraded by NHC very shortly,everything to me suggest this thing is a cat-5,pressure,recon reports,satilite representation and everything else does seem to suggest that this is about 160mph hurricane,making it the second strongest this season.

sub-900(still punting for 950mbs max mind you) I think is a real threat,this may even beat the great Katrina,gonig to be worth watching to see if it can beat Allen at 899mbs,I've got a funny feeling this has a shot,the one thing it won't do is just die of very quickly like Philppe did.

Also Wobbling more the WNW now as the HP system starts to get shunted more to the east and with a powerful system it'll want to push more poleward anyway,means it could come in slightly east of expected if it carries on this WNW motion for the next 12hrs.The question is now,can this rival Katrina,the monster,two powerful cat-5's in one season,probably the third,very rare season this is!!!

Edited September 21, 2005 by kold weather