Hurricane Rita.

[Polar Bear]

some pics of Rita so far onthe BBC website

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_pictures/4266146.stm

[Polar Bear]

and on oil prices......

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4266402.stm. Other storeys too found on this page

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the next recon/advisory may well take N.O. out of the possible firing line but the combination high tides/storm surge has them worried (along with Rita's rain potential) as apparently the seaward levees are still not in a good state of repair (FOX News) so the mayors decision to re-evacuate is on the basis of levee failure as Rita passes out in the Gulf. Heres hoping she steers wide and causes no problems.

Just as a matter of interest is it better for an area arleady affected to get a second strike or is it better for a new area to be trashed? The utility comps seem to think that their job is easier on a second strike as a lot of the trees that took out power lines are now down and won't cause the same problem again.

A quick look at the rigs out in the Gulf shows that Katrina hit the rigs to the east (and all the problems we suffered from that here in the UK) and the forcast track for Rita has her taking out all the rigs to the west. Better fill up then before we get £1:10 a litre!! :blink:

[Snow Queen one]

has anybody got live feed coverage of this i have lost all my links and would like to have a look at the news channels.

Thanks

Angela

[PersianPaladin]

000

WTNT33 KNHC 210832

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 15

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

...MAJOR CATEGORY THREE RITA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF

MEXICO AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE

FLORIDA KEYS IS DISCONTINUED EAST OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS...INCLUDING

KEY WEST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE

FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...

285 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM...

WEST-NORTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS

MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF RITA FARTHER AWAY FROM THE

FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS...AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR

HURRICANE SOMETIME LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

IS POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE

FLOODING ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD

SUBSIDE TODAY.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1

TO 3 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10

INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST

CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE

NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...24.3 N... 84.6 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT

COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

[PersianPaladin]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB

EYE DIAMETER 25 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

[Gray-Wolf]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  956 MB

EYE DIAMETER  25 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

$$

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This time yesterday T.S. force winds only extended that far from the estimated cetre!! She's gunna grow into a monster, Katrina was just a warm up act!

"Lovely Rita, Meteorollogically made,

Lovely Rita, meteorologically, made,

Lovely Rita, meteorologically made,

Nothing can stand between us,

When it grows dark

You'll blow my house away........."

(off colour I know but blame the Beatles!!!) :blink:

Edited September 21, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[MAF]

now could be upgraded to a 4 or 5 as it heads towards texas on the weekend

[I can't believe it's not better]

This time yesterday T.S. force winds only extended that far from the estimated cetre!! She's gunna grow into a monster, Katrina was just a warm up act!

"Lovely Rita, Meteorollogically made,

Lovely Rita, meteorologically, made,

lol. U should get a prize.

[Polar Bear]

The google earth link again for all (supplied before for katrina on this forum). Oh she is moving alright

http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/download.php?Number=87750

[Hemlock]

When is this beastie expected to make landfall?

[londonsnow]

When is this beastie expected to make landfall?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

friday/saturday

[Hemlock]

I an strange kind of way I hope it changes course and hits NO again, hardly anybody is there at the moment, the engineers are already there to sort out the mess, surely if it hits Texas the emergency services and disaster relief people are going to have big problems coping with another disaster area.

[Mondy]

First chance i've had to see any data or radar images of Rita since last night.

Now obviously a major hurricane. Cat 4 expected later today. Wouldn't be the slightest surprised if she makes Cat 5 in 24 hours. Plenty of ocean helping her.

Track seems to be on course still. Just hope it doesn't take a north turn quicker than is anticipated.

Why i love Reuters! Simplified, yet indepth!

Edited September 21, 2005 by Mondy

[MAF]

I an strange kind of way I hope it changes course and hits NO again, hardly anybody is there at the moment, the engineers are already there to sort out the mess, surely if it hits Texas the emergency services and disaster relief people are going to have big problems coping with another disaster area.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i see your point. you would think though, a country the size of the USA would be able to flood (excuse the pun) the affected areas of louisianna with so many workers that it would not take long to restore some kind of habitable state.

[Somerset Squall]

I an strange kind of way I hope it changes course and hits NO again, hardly anybody is there at the moment, the engineers are already there to sort out the mess, surely if it hits Texas the emergency services and disaster relief people are going to have big problems coping with another disaster area.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I can kind of get your point there, indeed the emergency services will find it easier to cope. But just imagine how many more months there would be before everyone can move back to New Orleans if that happened. I know it's strange, but overall I agree it would probably be better if did hit NO. (Harsh i know)

[Mondy]

She's now officially a Cat 4. 948mb..

latest discussion

Edited September 21, 2005 by Mondy

[smich]

Jeezus :blink:

Is it really possible to have two full on annular hurricanes on the trot??!!!

I thought they were very rare.

It'll be interesting to see what happens eye-wall replacement wise...

I can't believe it's gone from a tropical storm to a cat4 in what - 18 hours?!

Steve M

[Mondy]

I mentioned annular yesterday and was kinda thwarted in my tracks so to speak!

Still not sure tbh..

Edit: Posted this yesterday on a previous page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane

Is Rita annular already?

Edit2: In little over 24 hours she's dropped 45mb..incredible. Not even Katrina did that.

Edited September 21, 2005 by Mondy

[Polar Bear]

She's now officially a Cat 4. 948mb..

latest discussion

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

holy moses

[smich]

No, Mondy, I don't think she's annular yet. I think that title is reserved for at least cat 5 hurricanes. See kw's tutorial at the top of this sectionfor more info.

I'm just wondering if it's possible? Especially when Katrina went thru so recently and presumably cooled the sst's little.

Without being too alarmist, I'm a little worried that if Rita doesn't weaken at landfall having reached cat 5, then this could be the mother of all hurricanes.

Looking at the sat pic, there's a LOT of warm water between her and Texas.

Steve M

[P.K.]

Is Rita annular already?

No.

115kts now :blink: :blink: Will be interesting to see what recon finds later.

[Polar Bear]

bbc front page headliner now; more in

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4261166.stm

[Mondy]

Recon have so far only managed to tell us all there planes are having engineering difficulties! :blink: New data is promised later though.

Think you've hit the nail on the head Smich. Cat 5 easily possible at or near landfall. Just look at the ocean around her..nothing in her way (as yet) to weaken her.

Is eyewall replacement taking place already too? http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-g...al&numframes=20

As a footnote,maybe a good idea to bookmark these live feeds for landfall time:

1. http://www.khou.com/

2. http://www.click2houston.com/index.html

3. http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/

Edited September 21, 2005 by Mondy

[Mondy]

Formidable: