Hurricane Rita.

[Thunder Snow]

From BBc

But forecasters said Rita had taken the best possible course, with the eye of the storm missing land altogether.

Florida Governor Jeb Bush had declared a state of emergency in the state, which allows the state to oversee evacuations and call in the National Guard.

[P.K.]

152kts 10 second average, 143kt 30 second averge (30 seconds later), 125kt SFMR surface reading. :blink: :blink:

URNT40 KWBC 211610

NOAA3 WX18A RITA

160600 2422 08551 9988 -1608 100089 +174 +133 100105 104 008

160630 2424 08551 10028 -1406 101138 +138 +136 100152 125 015

160700 2426 08551 10001 -1097 096143 +129 +127 097148 115 028

160730 2428 08551 9993 -0912 095133 +133 +133 094137 106 026

160800 2430 08551 10001 -0752 097123 +128 +128 096126 100 014

[I can't believe it's not better]

From BBc

But forecasters said Rita had taken the best possible course, with the eye of the storm missing land altogether.

Florida Governor Jeb Bush had declared a state of emergency in the state, which allows the state to oversee evacuations and call in the National Guard.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's missed land so far!

Edit: They mean the best course as far as Florida, Cuba etc are concerned.

Edited September 21, 2005 by I can't believe it's not better

[Mondy]

Couple of amazing loops here :blink:

one

two

She's now dropped 54mb in just under 30 hours. That is scary.

The plane recently reported 152 knot winds in the northern eyewall at about 10000 feet and 125 knot winds at the surface. That's just about Cat 5.

[Mondy]

Posted this fella's comments before.(JeffL) He's a site meteorologist with wildonweather.com based in Houston, TX

Here's what he says:

This is the most serious hurricane situation most of us have ever faced. This is a life threatening situation.

I am begging those in the storm surge zones to get out.

Damage across most of SE TX will be equal if not worst than that of Hurricane Alicia.

Storm surge damage will be incredible.

The decisions you are making right now may save your life and minimize property damage.

Storm update:

Rita continues to become better organize with the eye clearing out and deep convection now wrapping completely around the center. Recon. aircraft will be up shortly to check on intensity. We could see a cat 5 in the central Gulf. The good news is that such intense hurricanes usually do not remain that strong for an extended period of time.

All preparations to protect your life and your property need to be completed by Thursday evening.

600pm this evening the MANDATORY EVACS go into effect as well as the traffic management plan. I have discussed this plan at length, yet people still do not seem to understand. Please tune to local media outlets and their web pages.

Follow all advice from local law enforcement and emergency officials. Emergency officials will begin PA announcements tonight and Thursday in the EVAC zones. Galveston County will enact its first call system with emergency information.

[I can't believe it's not better]

Wow Mondy! That really illustrates the speed around the eye (loop 2 - FireFox stopped me connecting to loop1).

Edit: OK. Got loop1 now. Wow again.

Edited September 21, 2005 by I can't believe it's not better

[summer blizzard]

Although missing land is the best course in terms of damage, it has the negative impact of been the best course for strengthening.

Although the NHC expect Hurricane Rita to weaken to category 3 before landfall, i do not feel this will happen, and expect Hurricane Rita to make landfall as a category 5 hurricane on friday night.

[The PIT]

Ouch sounds nasty. I wouldn't be surprised orleans being flooded again.

[Gray-Wolf]

Maybe the 'hurricane wise' in southern Florida could confidently chanced it as a tropical storm passed by but the inhabitants of the Texan coastline have had a very near miss not 3 weeks ago so I think they will get more than the 50% evacuation that the Keys managed.

With Fema and the Nat. Guard just down the coast responce times won't be as ponderous this time either. So here's hoping for low to nil casualties.

The impact on properties/business' in the region is another matter entirely with the low coastal/island locations within in the track area. By the time Katrina was finished with Biloxi it looked like a tornado had ripped through the place and I imagine the damage this time could be much the same under the track of the eye.

[Mondy]

This below loop gives a good idea off it's movement. Slight wobbles, but pretty much on course. Will be intersting to see (using this loop over the course of time) if Rita significantly shifts in any other given direction:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

(seems firefox is preventing some from viewing the radar loops - is this one visible to ff users?)

Edit: Google maps gives a very good idea as to elevations with regards flooding. Think as GW said, to co-incide with spring tides, that is extremely worrying.

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=lake+jackson...,1.296799&hl=en

Still, 60 hours to landfall,things can change for the better - you never know. :blink:

Edited September 21, 2005 by Mondy

[I can't believe it's not better]

This below loop gives a good idea off it's movement. Slight wobbles, but pretty much on course. Will be intersting to see (using this loop over the course of time) if Rita significantly shifts in any other given direction:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

(seems firefox is preventing some from viewing the radar loops - is this one visible to ff users?)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No probs this time :blink:

[Hemlock]

Is she a Cat 5 yet?

[i luv snow]

if she isnt, she has got to be close to it!

[Arrows]

She has winds of 140mph now so a little way to go yet. Remember 155mph sustained to be cat 5

[kold weather]

Holy hell,recon found pressure of 923!!!

URNT12 KNHC 211728

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 21/17:02:40Z

B. 24 deg 12 min N

085 deg 56 min W

C. NA mb NA m

D. NA kt

E. deg nm

F. 142 deg 142 kt

G. 036 deg 013 nm

H. 923 mb

I. 12 C/ 2447 m

J. 26 C/ 2436 m

K. 10 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. STADIUM

N. 12345/NA

O. 0.02 / nm

P. AF306 WXWXA 05092114306 OB 02

MAX FL WIND 142 KT NE QUAD 16:58:40 Z

Cat-5 is now looking very likely,might be a cat-5 very shortly as soon as winds match the pressure of this system,stadium eye as well,not annular mind you but still impressive system and amazing pressure drops,reminds me of how the labor day system went from a Td to the 2nd powerful hurricane ever in just 48hrs.Infact it almost as good as Katrina looked and a system maxing out at 160mph still looks probable to me,maybe even upwards of 165mph,probably already at 155mph i think,maybe close to 160mph.

It will weaken somewhat as it heads towards land I suspect as water content decreases which is why most hurricanes unless they are Annular die of as they head towards land somewhat however it being a major is still very possible,in the end this one has a good chance of coming close to Katrina and wil lmore then likely get into tyhe top ten deepest hurricanes ever if it can keep going.

I think landfall at 140mph,pressure at 940mbs,somehwere in Texas!!!

Edited September 21, 2005 by kold weather

[Arrows]

thats pretty impressive. It would be good to get to cat 6. I know it doesn't exist but if the wind was so strong then they could invent cat 6

[Mondy]

Pressure drop of 23mb in 3 hours :blink:

[P.K.]

Posted this fella's comments before.(JeffL) He's a site meteorologist with wildonweather.com based in Houston, TX

Ah so he is who I thought he was, he knows what he is talking about.

Can't see any stronger mini-obs winds since the last ones I posted.

Edit - 153kts 10 second winds, 151kts 30 second winds.

1751. 2419N 08617W 03053 5426 015 151 086 086 153 02632 0000000100

Edited September 21, 2005 by P.K.

[Mondy]

You know it's a severe hurricane when they mention stadium effect+pressure drops.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stadium_effect

Katrina was the exact same..

Edited September 21, 2005 by Mondy

[summer blizzard]

Since Hurricane Rita had a central pressure of 923mb in the last recon, it is most likely already a category 5 hurricane with a central pressure less than 920mb.

[Mondy]

Indeed SB:

ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

215 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS INTENSIFIED

A LITTLE MORE AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 150 MPH WINDS WITH A MINIMUM

PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THIS MAKES RITA A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR

HURRICANE.

FORECASTER AVILA

[summer blizzard]

If Hurricane Rita can drop 1mb, she will officially be a CATEGORY 5 hurricane, looks as if my prediction has come off.

[kold weather]

Here's the pressure:

H. 920 mb

winds found in the W quadrant of 153kts,winds probably translate to borderline between cat-4/5,I suspect there is a area of cat-5 winds in there though,northen qautrants should be the strongest with winds coming from the east and the thing travelling westwards.

I think considering the size of this thing,920mbs should be enough for cat-5 winds,160mph will be coming very soon i think,esp at the rate it's bombing at,sub 910mb possible now I think if it can just keep going.

Edited September 21, 2005 by kold weather

[P.K.]

Recon needs to find the winds to be strong enough for it to be upgraded, it isn't just based on the minimum pressure. The 153kt reading I posted above is approximately 137.7kts at the surface, however based on SFMR readings from earlier and readings from Katrina the 90% reduction may not be enough.

[pinball wizard]

Recon needs to find the winds to be strong enough for it to be upgraded, it isn't just based on the minimum pressure. The 153kt reading I posted above is approximately 137.7kts at the surface, however based on SFMR readings from earlier and readings from Katrina the 90% reduction may not be enough.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[/quote

How fast is this system actually moving then?