Hurricane Rita.

[Polar Bear]

Recon have so far only managed to tell us all there planes are having engineering difficulties! :blink: New data is promised later though.

Think you've hit the nail on the head Smich. Cat 5 easily possible at or near landfall. Just look at the ocean around her..nothing in her way (as yet) to weaken her.

Is eyewall replacement taking place already too?  http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-g...al&numframes=20

As a footnote,maybe a good idea to bookmark these live feeds for landfall time:

1. http://www.khou.com/

2. http://www.click2houston.com/index.html

3. http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Mondy

As you may have guessed by now, am not techically up to speed or even in the kno in weather speak and knowledge - this forum teaches me all i know! Soooo would you possibly, very briefly explain to me what eyewall replacement is. Hope you dont mind.

[Polar Bear]

Formidable:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Just a thought looking at that and comments above, has anyone saved an image of rita when she was a TS18? for a then and now comparison?

[Mondy]

Mondy

As you may have guessed by now, am not techically up to speed or even in the kno in weather speak and knowledge - this forum teaches me all i know! Soooo would you possibly, very briefly explain to me what eyewall replacement is. Hope you dont mind.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No probs :blink: Instead of me rambling on trying to explain as best i can (only seriously taken an interest since Katrina btw), this gives a great explanation:

"Concentric eyewall cycles" (or "eyewall replacement cycle" ) naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones , i.e. major hurricanes (winds > 50 m/s, 100 kt, 115 mph) or Catories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. As tropical cyclones reach this threshold of intensity, they usually - but not always - have an eyewall and radius of maximum winds that contract to a very small size, around 10 to 25 km [5 to 15 mi]. At this point, some of the outer rainbands may organize into an outer ring of thunderstorms that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and momentum. During this phase, the tropical cyclone is weakening (i.e. the maximum winds die off a bit and the central pressure goes up). Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely and the storm can be the same intensity as it was previously or, in some cases, even stronger. A concentric eyewall cycle occurred in Hurricane Andrew (1992) before landfall near Miami: a strong intensity was reached, an outer eyewall formed, this contracted in concert with a pronounced weakening of the storm, and as the outer eyewall completely replaced the original one the hurricane reintensified. Another example is Hurricane Allen (1980) which went through repeated eyewall replacement cycles -- going from Categrory 5 to Category 3 status several times. To learn more about concentric eyewall cycles, read Willoughby et al. (1982) and Willoughby (1990a). source

[Mondy]

Recent image: Monster.

[Polar Bear]

No probs :blink: Instead of me rambling on trying to explain as best i can (only seriously taken an interest since Katrina btw), this gives a great explanation:

"Concentric eyewall cycles" (or "eyewall replacement cycle" ) naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones , i.e. major hurricanes (winds > 50 m/s, 100 kt, 115 mph) or Catories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. As tropical cyclones reach this threshold of intensity, they usually - but not always - have an eyewall and radius of maximum winds that contract to a very small size, around 10 to 25 km [5 to 15 mi]. At this point, some of the outer rainbands may organize into an outer ring of thunderstorms that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and momentum. During this phase, the tropical cyclone is weakening (i.e. the maximum winds die off a bit and the central pressure goes up). Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely and the storm can be the same intensity as it was previously or, in some cases, even stronger. A concentric eyewall cycle occurred in Hurricane Andrew (1992) before landfall near Miami: a strong intensity was reached, an outer eyewall formed, this contracted in concert with a pronounced weakening of the storm, and as the outer eyewall completely replaced the original one the hurricane reintensified. Another example is Hurricane Allen (1980) which went through repeated eyewall replacement cycles -- going from Categrory 5 to Category 3 status several times. To learn more about concentric eyewall cycles, read Willoughby et al. (1982) and Willoughby (1990a). source

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks Mondy - that is stupendous - I will keep. good stuff! Veyr clear now :blink:

[SnowBear]

Is it really possible to have two full on annular hurricanes on the trot??!!!

I thought they were very rare.

Yes I think it is possible, look at last year or so where FL had a run of hits, thing is, the set up this year is just great for Gulf tracks, last year they were running up further north across FL, this year, slightly lower lattitude tracks, because of the general positioning of the highs and lows in that area. If these were hitting a higher latitude track, and going into FL they might be Cat 1's or 2's, maybe a 3, Rita may have hit FL as a TS, and then on to the Panhandle as a Cat 1/2/3. The added fuel from the Gulf makes them a Cat 4/5 before they hit land. Houston is overdue a strong hurricane they were saying on Fox news last night, by about 20 years, the set up is right this year for strong hurricanes. I think this is where Ophelia stumbled, trying to go against the grain to this years set up.

Both New Orleans and Houston are/were overdue for majors, nature wont care if both are thrown in in the same year.

Thirty-six percent of all U.S. hurricanes hit Florida;

Seventy-six percent of category 4 or higher hurricanes have hit either Florida or Texas;

Approximately half the hurricanes to strike the middle Gulf coast, southern Florida and New York were major hurricanes.

Which was the unusual hurricane in behaviour this year? I think Katrina, not Rita, Rita seems to be doing what most hurricanes destined for the NE TX coast do if given the chance, build, to high intensity, quickly and ferociously.

[Polar Bear]

Recent image: Monster.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

and with her being a girl I just keep thinking of one word to describe her ( word for a female pet)..but I will refrain from using on this forum. Monster..beast...she is definately that.

[Brrr]

I have not posted for a long while on this forum.. but I have friends in Galveston (evacuated) and friends in Houston - (one of them was at the borders of Louisiana as Texas home guard helping out - he tells me he'll be moved now cope with Rita).

Anyway - here is a link to NBC storm surge prediction from the Army apparently - very scary for a lot of people in Galveston - the lovely old homes that survived the 1900's storm - don't know if they can survive such a storm surge.

http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/wmv/vod.ibsy...998700.200k.asx

Sorry - Forgot to say

You'll need windows media/real audio to watch this video - or visit this site

http://www.click2houston.com/index.html?refresh=1200

and click on storm surge

Edited September 21, 2005 by Brrr

[Gray-Wolf]

I have not posted for a long while on this forum.. but I have friends in Galveston (evacuated) and friends in Houston - (one of them was at the borders of Louisiana as Texas home guard helping out - he tells me he'll be moved now cope with Rita).

Anyway - here is a link to NBC storm surge prediction from the Army apparently - very scary for a lot of people in Galveston - the lovely old homes that survived the 1900's storm - don't know if they can survive such a storm surge.

http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/wmv/vod.ibsy...998700.200k.asx

Sorry - Forgot to say

You'll need windows media/real audio to watch this video - or visit this site

http://www.click2houston.com/index.html?refresh=1200

and click on storm surge

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is very sobering. These are predictions at mean sea level but these are 'spring type tides' i.e. quite high so put that into the equation at high tide a Cat. 3 becomes a cat.4 and a cat.4 becomres a cat. 5 (in terms of predicted storm surge). Not good, not good at all. All the buildings that survived 1900 are really in jeopordy. :blink:

[PersianPaladin]

000

WTNT33 KNHC 211137

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

...SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR

HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM

THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...

WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 790 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF

CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION

IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD

BRING THE CENTER OF RITA FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER

THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGHTEN AND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. A NOAA PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE

CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140

MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...28.00 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS

IS POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE

FLOODING ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD

SUBSIDE TODAY.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1

TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE

FLORIDA KEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM

AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER

NORTHWEST CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE

OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 85.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[PersianPaladin]

i already posted that advisory....lol :blink:

Edited September 21, 2005 by PersianPaladin

[londonsnow]

Latest advisory. now sustaining winds of near 140mph, and remains cat 4, but warnings it could become a cat 5

000

WTNT33 KNHC 211444

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 16

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...WINDS NOW

ESTIMATED 140 MPH WINDS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE

FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS

HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...

WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF

CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN

THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE

CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 140 MILES. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH RITA IS FORECAST TO

EXPAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...24.3 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[Thunder Snow]

Will Rita hit cooler water before making landfall.

when will she hit land. she seems to be moving slow

Edited September 21, 2005 by Blizzard of the Northwest

[strauch67]

latest image

Looking the nex picture you can see the outflow in front of Rita

http://forum.meteonetwork.it/attachment.ph...=1&d=1127314154

[PersianPaladin]

latest image

Looking the nex picture you can see the outflow in front of Rita

http://forum.meteonetwork.it/attachment.ph...=1&d=1127314154

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Your data is rather out-dated now, Strauch67. Max Sustained wind speeds have now exceeded 140mph+ and gusts are even higher.

Edited September 21, 2005 by PersianPaladin

[Joneseye]

Blimey! :blink: :blink:

What a truly awesome sight this storm is turning out to be. The speed at which this one has intensified is unbelievable - if it continues at this rate and with the convective activity of the day to come we are surely looking at another cat 5!

I hope it does change to a more westerly track and hit a less populated area.

[strauch67]

Your data is rather out-dated now, Strauch67. Max Sustained wind speeds have now exceeded 140mph+ and gusts are even higher.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You're right Paladin...I'm working and I guess I shouldn't follow Rita's evolution :blink: :blink:

[PersianPaladin]

You're right Paladin...I'm working and I guess I shouldn't follow Rita's evolution      :blink:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not surprised that it has developed so quickly....it is entering an area of water where there are uniform temperatures of 29-30C!! :blink:

[Stuart]

it may hit cooler water before it land it may go back down to cat 3

[Joneseye]

it may hit cooler water before it land it may go back down to cat 3

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am not so sure. Yesterday I was looking at a link on here to the sea temps in the Gulf of Mexico (can anyone add this?) and as PersianPaladin said the uniform temps are 29-30C.

[I can't believe it's not better]

You're right Paladin...I'm working and I guess I shouldn't follow Rita's evolution :blink: :blink:

Mmm. Keep thinking about working and all the benefits (food, roof over head, etc) it brings too! Gripping stuff this.

[P.K.]

134kt 30 second wind, 136kt 10 second wind, 111kt SFMR surface wind.

URNT40 KWBC 211520

NOAA3 WX18A RITA

151500 2415 08526 10018 -0734 166123 +126 +121 165124 099 022

151530 2414 08528 9999 -0898 164123 +131 +127 166126 106 024

151600 2414 08531 10067 -1114 165134 +131 +131 165136 111 038

151630 2414 08533 10031 -1360 167124 +145 +145 166136 123 023

151700 2413 08535 10061 -1961 170104 +163 +154 175113 106 001

[Marcus_surfer]

Current Wave Conditions : Eye :- 12-14Feet Increaseing CAT 4

Eruption in wave height in 30hours , to 18-20Feet

42 Hours - 18-20FT CAT 4

60 Hours - 18-24FT CAT 4

66 Hours - 24-29FT CAT 5

78 Hours - 16-18FT (Texas Shoreline) CAT 3

Winds as it hits :

[Mondy]

Been looking at the difference between Rita and Katrina regarding location and presssure.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant...TRINA/track.dat )

Katrina was virtually in the same location and same pressure but weaker winds.

Perhaps getting two Cat 5 hurricanes in the GoM is a once in 1000 year event!

Another dropsonde just measured 935mb. Carla was 935 when she hit the same expected landfall.

Edit: now 934mb :blink:

Edited September 21, 2005 by Mondy

[Gray-Wolf]

Again ,as with Katrina, it's not just the intensity of the storm but the actual size of the storm. Some Cat. 4 storms (just as intense) do not have the dimensions needed to 'push' a large enough chunk of sea up into the storm surge maxima that get predicted, Rita is BIG and will push a lot of water before her. don't forget those seasonal high tides at this time of year must also be considered if she comes ashore with the tide.

The Army core of engineers say that N.O. will be in trouble again if they get 6" of rain (levee breaches) but if Rita trawls in at Galveston then a portion of the precip will be over the Mississippi basin for quite a while. Not good, not good at all...