Hurricane Rita.

[Mondy]

BREAKING NEWS: Galveston's mayor expects to call for a mandatory evacuation Wednesday afternoon. A voluntary evacuation is already under way. Brazoria County will call for a voluntary evacuation at 2 p.m. Tuesday.

http://www.khou.com/

[smich]

Well, after all that dilly-dallying, she went from cat1 to cat2 in about 3 hours! :blink:

Suspect she will achieve cat3 in about 24-36hrs...

Steve M

[Mondy]

Just had a good look at this: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation

Rita looks extremely strong upon landfall.

Also, nothing to do with Rita, but the UK appears to be (according to this model) in for a battering soon?? right hand side of page are the controls..click on FWD.

[kold weather]

i do not think sustained winds of 190mph are possible, maybe with the Labour Day hurricane though.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Nope,SB,I'm not getting mixed up,her eis the report which states Camille as a 190mph,it is a estimate but it was found by recon when they went into Camille.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives...le/prelim20.gif

remebmer its not just its pressure that determines its power but how tight the graidiant,the pressure may have been higher but the storm was smaller and so would have had a tighter graidiant then Katrina which equals higher winds,mde landfall at 165mph I believe.

The labor day hurricane is suspected to have winds of close to 200mph sustained based on both a tight presure gradiant due to being a tiny system and amzingly deep pressure,second deepest ever for a hurricane!

Edited September 20, 2005 by kold weather

[Gray-Wolf]

Just had a good look at this: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation

Also, nothing to do with Rita, but the UK appears to be (according to this model) in for a battering soon?? right hand side of page are the controls..click on FWD.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Enter ex-hurricane Phillipe I presume and your right that looks very nasty, kinda leaves one day instant winter trees the next? With most of the summer foliage still on the branch we'd better hope he sods off north!!

[Mondy]

It's as if Phillipe pushes the high pressure out the way.. :blink:

Maybe an idea to put that link up on the Phillipe heading to Uk thread...better not clutter up Rita :lol:

EDIT: CMD, Kold weather has a tutorial here

Edited September 20, 2005 by Mondy

[rixxxgolf]

What a season!!!!

Rita may stall and grow in the gulf too.

[strauch67]

One of these ex-TStorms will slap us a good-un sometime soon, surely it's only a matter of time??

Anyway, back on topic: has anyone got a good link for how/why/where/when hurricanes/typhoons form. Something fairly detailed but not beyond us mere mortals??!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Most of my links are in italian. Try this (english)

http://science.howstuffworks.com/hurricane2.htm

ciao

[P.K.]

2001 2410N 08210W 03047 5081 053 088 120 120 089 03015 0000000000

88kt 30 second wind, 89kt 10 second wind.

[Grape Soda]

I expect a category 5 within 48 hours however i do think it will weaken as it undergoes a eyewall replacement cycle before strengthening again before landfall, the warmest sea surface temperatures are all in the western Gulf Of Mexico, which is why i can not see it weakening much before landfall.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I do hope your wrong SB. I was visiting family in Corpus Christi and Houston a month back and they counted their blessings for not feeling the wrath of Katrina. Even then with the storm so far away, it brought 15ft storm surge to the beaches. I shudder to think if Rita heads for them, and becomes a cat5. Its all flat land. :blink:

[Mondy]

Pressure down to 973mb. Falling very rapidly (as the Shipping Forecast would say)!

[Nick F]

Well it looks like high pressure over the Deep South could save New Orleans a battering:

... but where abouts in Texas is it going to make landfall, and will it make category five on landfall. Wouldn't it be sad irony that those who escaped New Orleans to make a new life in Houston, not far from Galveston on the Texas Gulf Coast looking likely to be prime target, are affected by another hurricane onslaught in the space of a month or so :blink:

[summer blizzard]

According to that, a category 4 hurricane is expected within the next 36 hours, looks as though my prediction may come off.

[Mondy]

5PM is out. No real change.

RITA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS...BY A LARGE

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED EAST-WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED

STATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS

IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RITA TO

TURN GRADUALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST.

Just wonder if that HP will move east quicker than you think and allow Rita to move further northwards?

[Marcus_surfer]

New Orleans is looking safe to me this time ( Hopefully ) The risk is there mind you

[Mondy]

Apparently CNN expects Rita to be Cat 4 by 2pm tomorow :blink:

Also a Cat 3/4 will mix water at a depth of 70m (or 210ft) so all in, worrying times ahead. Storm surge i feel is the biggest threat again to N.O area. Not wind speed.

Wind-wise, Houston/Galveston still in the firing line. Forecasts have rarely shifted off course..

Forgot. CMD another excellent site for Hurri's: http://whyfiles.larc.nasa.gov/kids/Problem...icanebasics.swf

Edited September 20, 2005 by Mondy

[Louby]

I cant get over how fast this is growing, when I looked this time last night it was still a tropical storm, could this really be bigger than Katrina?

[i luv snow]

i dont think it will be as big as, or bigger than Katrina, but i do feel it will certainly be a very powerful, HUGE system feeding off the gulf- certainly we will have to keep watching and seeing what happenes, this time will tomorrow will only tell how much it will develop even more in the next 24 hours! I do reckon its gonna be big, but maybe not 'that' big. But nature does what nature wants, so who am i to say anything? :blink:

[Nick F]

Interesting looking at the sea height charts on the StormSurf website for the Gulf of Mexico:

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=gom_height9

... shows how the surge increases with the increasing strength of the hurricane, and the surge affects, yes, the Mississipi Delta/N.O., but for now the worst of the surge looks to hit the NE coast of Texas especially, but the whole of the Texas and Louisianna coasts looking very vunerable to a 20ft plus surge.

[Mondy]

Excellent link, Nick. Wow!

I reckon that track is bang on too.

[P.K.]

I cant get over how fast this is growing, when I looked this time last night it was still a tropical storm, could this really be bigger than Katrina?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

6pm model guidance from SHIP and DSHP takes this to 125kts in 48 hours, although this is an increase of around 30 kts on the previous model guidance. :blink:

WHXX01 KWBC 201825

CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE RITA (AL182005) ON 20050920 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050920 1800 050921 0600 050921 1800 050922 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 23.9N 81.7W 24.4N 84.0W 24.7N 85.9W 25.2N 87.5W

BAMM 23.9N 81.7W 24.3N 83.8W 24.7N 85.9W 24.9N 87.9W

A98E 23.9N 81.7W 24.0N 84.6W 24.1N 87.2W 24.1N 89.1W

LBAR 23.9N 81.7W 24.2N 84.2W 24.4N 86.7W 24.6N 89.1W

SHIP 85KTS 103KTS 116KTS 122KTS

DSHP 85KTS 103KTS 116KTS 122KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050922 1800 050923 1800 050924 1800 050925 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 25.8N 89.0W 27.6N 92.5W 29.7N 95.8W 31.7N 96.4W

BAMM 25.2N 89.7W 25.8N 93.0W 27.5N 94.3W 31.6N 94.8W

A98E 24.3N 90.7W 24.5N 93.7W 25.3N 96.1W 26.6N 96.5W

LBAR 25.1N 91.6W 27.0N 95.5W 30.0N 97.7W 33.1N 97.6W

SHIP 125KTS 120KTS 105KTS 81KTS

DSHP 125KTS 120KTS 56KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 23.9N LONCUR = 81.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

LATM12 = 23.6N LONM12 = 78.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 23.1N LONM24 = 75.9W

WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 60KT

CENPRS = 976MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 105NM

[kaz]

Hi just looked at some satilite pics of rita and i couldnt make out an eye is this good or bad? could someone let me know please. I think i know the answer but for the sake of looking like a compleat twit would like someone to tell me ta very much

lol kaz x

[SxK]

Hi just looked at some satilite pics of rita and i couldnt make out an eye is this good or bad? could someone let me know please. I think i know the answer but for the sake of looking like a compleat twit would like someone to tell me ta very much

lol kaz x

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hey Kaz,

Not sure where you are looking but the eye is visible on this satelite image:

[D KARLSON]

7.00 am this morning hurricane rita continues too strengthen and is expected to reach a cat 4 and its path is not expected to deviate much so the forecast track for louisiana is not likely to change.

Whats for sure is somewheres going to get another thrashing and its little consoolation to states already hit by katrina that they may ecspe the worst , whats worse is its just this minute been upgraded to a cat 3 so thats more bad news it cant fail to reach a cat 4 and could easily reach cat 5

:blink:

[Polar Bear]

Ah ha finally the BCC website now has changed her to Hurricane Rita - she was still Tropical Storm when I last looked yesterday

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/extreme_weather.shtml

Shame they haven't updated the satellite picture though. come on BBC, sort it out. Have to say though from reading the progression of Rita from the posts (which are all good incidentallly) since logging off yesterday afternoon, and whilst we as weather enthusiasts love a storm- I am really starting to want her to ease up a bit now before she hits land and creates havoc. Mother Nature is definatley not looking impressed at the mo.