Hurricane Rita.

[Mondy]

Is it true that the Hurricane jumped from a Cat 2 to a Cat 5 in a small period of time?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It went from Tropical storm to cat 2 in 24 hours

cat 2 to 5 in less than that.

Dropped 100mbs in roughly 36 hours (897mb this morning)

Edit: It's all somewhere in this thread, but can't be bothered checking back

I'm sure that's all correct above, though

Edited September 22, 2005 by Mondy

[Ryan M]

This storm is determined to do some damage, does anyone know how wide the 'cane is?

[Kiwi]

Really feel for all those families stressed out of their minds as they try to get out of Galveston/Houston area.

It looks like a real nightmare. I've been watching footage on KPRC - horrendous traffic jams, cars running out of petrol blocking the freeway etc. Hopefully the eye will pass to the east of this densely populated area (Houston/Galveston) as I can't see everyone getting out in time.

http://www.click2houston.com/video/5000985/detail.html

[Mondy]

Likewise Kiwi. Read somewhere it was taking 8 hours to do a normal 30 min journey.

I suspect many have learnt since Katrina (authorities and people alike).

[coldfingers]

Does anyone know a site where I can find out the current mb?

[SnowBear]

I dont think Rita's eye will make landfall in Texas, I think now, somewhere between Cameron and Marsh Island in LA, slap bang inbetween Houston and Baton Rouge (which was my thoughts if Rita passed through the FL Straits closer to the Keys than Cuba).

[Lincs Observation]

I Was Astounded by this moving sat image of the gulf of Mexico, you can see the power of Hr Rita as it pulls in cloud formations from every direction over hundreds of miles. Its acting like some sort of vacum cleaner sucking in everything as it tracks NW totally awesome. it looks like the earth equivalent of a black hole.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html

[SnowBear]

Lafayette, the name has been stuck in my mind now for 2 days.

[SizzlingHeat]

I pesonally believe that when Hurricane Rita finishes it's eyewall replacement cycle, if it has not already, then it will bomb again, if it does pass over cooler waters, then as long as they are above 28C, they will only slow it's development rather than weaken it as most other variables such as wind sheer remain faviourable for further development.

Mondy, has Hurricane Rita slowed significantly as if it has then it will be strugling to combat the high pressure, if it has not, then it is most likely going through a eyewall replacement cycle.

It seems as though Hurricane Rita is now a category 4 huuricane with sustained windspeeds of only 150mph however the central pressure of 915mb is low enougth to warant a category 5 hurricane, which takes precidence, windspeed or pressure??????????

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

ONLY 150mph sustained winds :lol: I dont supose you would like to try and stay on the same road with winds like that :o When it gusts to 40mph i find it a struggle to walk in it let alone 150!! :blink:

[SizzlingHeat]

Not me, I want to see records broken - lowest ever gulf pressure etc.

But without ANY deaths.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Just like an impossible equation :blink:

[Mondy]

Does anyone know a site where I can find out the current mb? :blink:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ :lol:

[smich]

Likewise Kiwi. Read somewhere it was taking 8 hours to do a normal 30 min journey.

I suspect many have learnt since Katrina (authorities and people alike).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's good that they are all leaving so early, but I'm getting increasingly wound up by the footage showing 4 lanes of gridlock and four lanes without a single car on them :blink:

Steve M oops I mean Smich (sorry Steve, force of habit!)

Edited September 22, 2005 by smich

[Mondy]

Charming! Accuweather taking the p*** out of the National Hurricane centre?

The graphic from the National Hurricane Center shows much less confidence in the storm's impact. This product is designed to be used by government and emergency management officials. Their forecast is for less than a 50% chance of the storm passing within 75 miles anywhere off the coast of northeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. AccuWeather feels that this forecast is virtually useless. :blink: :lol:

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-stor...adc=0&article=4

Edited September 22, 2005 by Mondy

[smich]

Charming! Accuweather taking the p*** out of the National Hurricane centre?

The graphic from the National Hurricane Center shows much less confidence in the storm's impact. This product is designed to be used by government and emergency management officials. Their forecast is for less than a 50% chance of the storm passing within 75 miles anywhere off the coast of northeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. AccuWeather feels that this forecast is virtually useless. :blink:   :lol:

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-stor...adc=0&article=4

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well I prefer the NHC chart there. Accuweather is centred too far west. The track is now very much NW and I'm voting for a Port Arthur/ Sabine Pass hit.

Blimey! I think I just stuck my neck out and predicted the weather! :o

Smich

[rixxxgolf]

Had a stab at the Landfall area....

[kold weather]

Pressure has actually just dropped 1mb,I think this is all down to western side of the storm starting to get stronger again as as the dry air to the west decreases and shear is easing up a little,what this may well mean is its actually getting slightly stronger again and the risk of it gonig back upto cat-5 again must be ther eif recon finds deepening pressure again.

The other very bad thing,esp for LA and what I feared last night that this system is turning to the WNW faster then predicted moving at 300 degrees and wobbling to the Nw now,its gonig to be north of the forecasted point by a fair distance,and will likely miss the updated forecast map.The other thing this means is that NO will likely see some heavy rain from the outerbands,flooding once again in the city looks possible and in the NE quadrant of the storm a easterly surge straight into the lake and probably breeching the weakened flood defenses and probably tropical storm force gusts,maybe even sustained upto 50mph I reckon with gusts upto 65-70mph is my current reckoning at the least.I'll have a look at surface charts later to see what is causing the early shift,but I had a bad feeling this would happen,and puts LA once again firmly back into the danger zone again,as well as NO.

Watch the next advisory shift the forecast path eastwards once more as the northerly turn started earlier and getting slightly stronger again despite having structual changes and pressure at 915mbs,this is gonig to be a very intresting and probably scary night for those living in LA and eastern Texas,wit hthe risk now leaning towards western and maybe even central LA,pressure down to 903mbs winds upto 170mph again by the end of the night I fear.

rixxxgolf,looks good to me but maybe slightly to far east,but better then the NHC forecast at present I suspect.

Edited September 22, 2005 by kold weather

[Kiwi]

It's good that they are all leaving so early, but I'm getting increasingly wound up by the footage showing 4 lanes of gridlock and four lanes without a single car on them :blink:

Steve M oops I mean Smich (sorry Steve, force of habit!)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I hear what you're saying smich -- You begin to wonder if they could organise a p*** up in a brewery!! - how hard can it be to have 7 lanes out and one in!!!

Incidentally Frank the weather Guy on KPRC did a great synopsis on why Rita is doing what she is and where she might go - High pressure over Texas slipping east a low way up over the Great Lakes influencing the track etc etc -- talking about GFS models etc - A joy to listen to!! :o

Either the great American public are a lot more clued up re meteorology than the average Brit or he was getting too technical for them.

I hate to think how the new BBC weather graphics will present a major storm coming up the English channel!!!. A few blobs of blue and brown and a tiny arrow showing windspeed!!! :lol:

Edited September 22, 2005 by Kiwi

[smich]

Had a stab at the Landfall area....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is bang on, to my mind, rixxx

Happily, it's one of the most sparsely populated parts of the gulf coast.

Smich

[SnowBear]

slap bang between Cameron and Marsh Island, thats where rixx's prediction is :blink:

[smich]

I hear what you're saying smich -- You begin to wonder if they could organise a p*** up in a brewery!! - how hard can it be to have 7 lanes out and one in!!!

Incidentally Frank the weather Guy on KPRC  did a great synopsis on why Rita is doing what she is and where she might go - High pressure over Texas slipping east a low way up over the Great Lakes influencing the track etc etc -- talking about GFS models etc - A joy to listen to!! :lol:

Either the great American public are a lot more clued up re meteorology than the average Brit or he was getting too technical for them.

I hate to think how the new BBC weather graphics will present a major storm coming up the English channel!!!. A few blobs of blue and brown and a tiny arrow showing windspeed!!! :blink:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

kiwi, go anywhere in the states and there will be a cable channel devoted solely to the weather - we've never had a dedicated weather channel in the UK despite our preoccupation with the subject! I reckon a Netweather TV channel would go down a storm! (sorry) The advertising revenue during an event like this would be tremendous!

Smich

Edited September 22, 2005 by smich

[SnowBear]

There used to be The Weather Channel on analogue satellite some time ago in the UK.

[rixxxgolf]

I'm expecting the unexpected with Rita, and to me, a huge jolt NNw or even N is not too far away for my liking.

[SnowBear]

I think it could go close to the New Orleans area too, I am going to say Marsh Island, which is the Island below Lafayette LA.

[Roo]

My friend works for Shell in Houston and their entire Texas operation has been closed down for the foreseeable: all staff have been evacuated. She has spent the last 8 hours in a traffic jam, after having queued 2 hours for petrol, but is on her way up north now, thank goodness.

She was telling me that people in Houston have been told not to leave until tomorrow, and loads of people are staying put till then, particularly the poor as there are very few buses or trains. Where have we heard that before? :blink:

[Snow Queen one]

Mayor White is now saying that they have opened up contraflow lanes to ease traffic jams and has organised for fuel to be delivered to people who have run out of fule and bloked lanes.