Hurricane Rita.

[MediaHype]

Some interesting data about the stations in the path of Rita

Have a look at the fixed stations that may not be there come Saturday!!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf.shtml

[Snow Queen one]

not me saying it! there's a high pressure which could stall it and give tropical storm status to it if it heads back down to houston. Something about it being trapped by two high pressures. But then you guys know i am no forcaster so info may be a bit sketchy

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Am I finding faces in clouds or is this star-shaped? Anyone know what causes it?

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~gumley/modis_gal...55.143.250m.jpg

[Kain]

Wow! What a stunning image.

Kain

[Snow Queen one]

hey textmum hows your friend in louisianna? Is she alright? I bet she can't believe whats going on now.

Edited September 22, 2005 by Snow Queen one

[Mondy]

not me saying it!  there's a high pressure which could stall it and give tropical storm status to it if it heads back down to houston.  Something about it being trapped by two high pressures.  But then you guys know i am no forcaster so info may be a bit sketchy

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hi snowqueen

This has been mentioned once or twice today on this thread. One high is weakening, the other is strengthening thus giving Rita thought for choice.

The Texas high, to my mind, is still blocking her intended route(due north) although other forecasts suggest the other high(the weakening one) is helping her move quicker, therefore her pressure yet again drops to almost sub 900..

It's all still a mess to be honest..

Atlantic... superb image...i guess that was when she was recycling her eye?

Edited September 22, 2005 by Mondy

[Snow Queen one]

thanks for clearing that up Mondy

[Kain]

At least Hurricanes think of the planet by recycling eyes, It's more than what GW does...

Kain

[Portland Paul]

Hi snowqueen

This has been mentioned once or twice today on this thread. One high is weakening, the other is strengthening thus giving Rita thought for choice.

The Texas high, to my mind, is still blocking her intended route(due north) although other forecasts suggest the other high(the weakening one) is helping her move quicker, therefore her pressure yet again drops to almost sub 900..

It's all still a mess to be honest..

Atlantic... superb image...i guess that was when she was recycling her eye?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Any ideas of the minimum pressure likely to be achieved in the 'eye', if the eye reasserts itself?

[textmum]

Hi Snow Queen,

she is ok, very very tired as she has only had one day off since Katrina hit! She was living in her office until about 8 days ago. She is busy with vaccinations, they don't appear to be concerned about Rita but that was 8 hours ago!!

[Snow Queen one]

Well night all me n my muddled fingers are going to bed. lol will see what comes tomorrow.

[AmericanIceman]

I found out that one of my friends was with his brother and heading more North to get away from the storm (since it was supposed to go in South of Houston)...And now the storm looks to be hitting more north. :/ I'm scared they might get stuck in the worst part...on the road.

[Weatherwatcher]

294

URNT12 KNHC 222219

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 22/22:11:00Z

B. 25 deg 58 min N

089 deg 39 min W

C. 700 mb 2326 m

D. NA kt

E. NA deg nm

F. 054 deg 124 kt

G. 312 deg 019 nm

H. 913 mb

I. 9 C/ 3065 m

J. 19 C/ 3049 m

K. 15 C/ NA

L. OPEN E

M. CO14/35

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 11

MAX FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 21:24:10 Z

Just two hours ago it was C018-48

The outer eyewall seems to be contracting fairly rapidly.

Edited September 22, 2005 by Weatherwatcher

[AmericanIceman]

294

URNT12 KNHC 222219

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 22/22:11:00Z

B. 25 deg 58 min N

089 deg 39 min W

C. 700 mb 2326 m

D. NA kt

E. NA deg nm

F. 054 deg 124 kt

G. 312 deg 019 nm

H. 913 mb

I. 9 C/ 3065 m

J. 19 C/ 3049 m

K. 15 C/ NA

L. OPEN E

M. CO14/35

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 11

MAX FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 21:24:10 Z

Just two hours ago it was C018-48

The outer eyewall seems to be contracting fairly rapidly.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Don't hate me, but is that good or bad?!

[Weatherwatcher]

Well once the outer eyewall reaches the inner eyewall it should overcome it and the EWR cycle will then be complete. Then Rita will have time to restrengthen before landfall. It's bad news if you're in Louisiana I'd suggest.

[roberthines]

000

WTNT33 KNHC 222049

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 21

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

4 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA GRADUALLY HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST

LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN

CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO

COMPLETION.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR

NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE

PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE

PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE

SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF

THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND

LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT

MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL

STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STROM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT

MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF

MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES...

650 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 390 MILES... 630

KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A

GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE

SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANYTROPICAL STROM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW

ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS

ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS. AT 3 PM CDT...A NOAA BUOY

REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 89 MPH...143 KM/HR WITH A GUST

TO 112 MPH...180 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS

913 MB...26.96 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE

LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY

KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE

ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE

COASTAL FLOODING.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15

INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS

AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. BASED ON THE

FORECAST TRACK...TOTALS ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE

POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. IN

ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER

SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...25.8 N... 89.5 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM

CDT.

[AmericanIceman]

Well once the outer eyewall reaches the inner eyewall it should overcome it and the EWR cycle will then be complete. Then Rita will have time to restrengthen before landfall. It's bad news if you're in Louisiana I'd suggest.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Damnit, What's the chances of another EWR before landfall?

[Weatherwatcher]

Damnit,  What's the chances of another EWR before landfall?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Anyone's guess

[AmericanIceman]

Anyone's guess  :o

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This thing has me scared #$&(%less for the people I know over there. :huh: :unsure: <_<

Edited September 22, 2005 by AmericanIceman

[matmilne]

I've been watching the vis for the atlantic and both rita and phil's centres are moving roughly parallell north to one another. i think rx is right, there's deffinately some sort of tethering process going on.

if she continues to curve there's no doubt she'll hit the louisianna side of the border

Interesting to note; the hole in phil is roughly rita sized.

Edited September 22, 2005 by matmilne

[Mondy]

This loop now proves she's passed eyewall replacement http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Eyewall was clouded over, now crystal clear..

[matmilne]

This loop now proves she's passed eyewall replacement http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Eyewall was clouded over, now crystal clear..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

scratch my last prediction, course change possible, the eye appears to be looping around. Deffinately wobbling

Edited September 23, 2005 by matmilne

[MAF]

AmericanIceman, whats the latest TV news saying about Rita's route?

[MAF]

and if anyone is interested, here's something from the BBC

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4270640.stm

[AmericanIceman]

AmericanIceman, whats the latest TV news saying about Rita's route?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not really sure. Not been watching the news about this one. Quite strange since i'm normally glued to the TV for these things.