Wilma Watching

[Mondy]

And look how much Invest 99L (possibly Alpha) has improved..deep convection that area now. I say a tropical depression by the end of the night.

EDIT: The NHC are now confirming what we were saying (we're good, eh?!! :blink: )

WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS

OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS

FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE

FORMING... AND SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE

DEVELOPING CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM

COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Edited October 21, 2005 by Mondy

[Andy Bown]

On Mondy's 16.33 post of the radar, is that blue in the eye the sea showing through ? Whatever, that's an incredible image !

[Mondy]

AB

If you look back at the image, the rainbow scale at the bottom suggests to me that it is, as you would expect, dead calm and tranquil (eerie). Light rain, that'll be about it. Around the eyewall MUST be almighty frightening right now.

[January Snowstorm]

Strange how the beeb haven't really picked up much on the story yet?

I guess the damage that the beast is causing wont be known for a while!

[crimsone]

I don't think it's that. If it was Florida, the beeb would have reporters all over and they'd make it the top story 4 hours or more even before TS winds started.

But this is Mexico, and so in the mind of the beeb, it's news, butthe fact that two tory leadership candidates now have 6 weeks to campaign is bigger news. It's no different from the oil comment really. It may be a hash thing to hear, but that is unfortunately just how the world is.

Edited October 21, 2005 by crimsone

[Mondy]

I think the eye is now breaking up - check all the loops out. With land interaction, could be quite a messy looking system in the next 6-12 hours..

[kold weather]

Western eyewall looks quite weak now actually,still the islands of Cozumel must have had aright smashing by the western eyewall,winds must have been at least 115kts there althoug hthe strongest winds is in the north-east quandrant at present.Certainly the eastern side is stil lvery potent and the eye still looks clear enough.

Although at the moment they are probably in the eye itslef and so winds will likely be rapidly decreasing,as well as the pressure.Some impressive meso-vorticies in the eye at the moment as well,if anyone does loo kat the eye from the there,it must be a impressive sight...

The turn more to the north I'd have thought is due in the next 18hrs as the second shortwave trough digs down from the west and sends the system turning more to thje north and east which should cause the ssytem to push of back into the gulf probably as a cat-3.

Seas's aren't that cool really on its expected track and are certainly condusive to a strong cat-3,although there may be some shear induced of which is the basis of the NHC forecast weakenig the system down to a boderline cat-1/2 at landfall,then again they also went with that with Charley last year just 24hrs out and it actually came in at a strong cat-4 and so these things need to be watched,esp if it arrives after finishing a eyewlal replacement cycle.

Edited October 21, 2005 by kold weather

[shuggee]

News24 is live in Cancoon (sp?) in the next hour. The swell out to sea looks impressive.

[Hurricane Debby]

Just caught a brief article on News 24 about Wilma. The lady reporting from Cancun can't report again for another few hours because she has had to go to the one of the shelters for protection !

[Hurricane Debby]

Just seen this posted on the site Roo mentioned earlier

Wind driven rain about 3" in the house since my last post. Rain coming into our house from the upstairs units!

Neighbors whose house is blowing through can't get back over here because in the last 10 minutes the wind has doubled!

Post again if i can. We are ok. Mike

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Mondy]

Eye now over Cozumel - will be nice and sunny at the moment :blink:

[crimsone]

Still not sure about these rgb images...

is it the case that the yellowish colour is low level cloud, and the white/blue is high/mid level?

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks Snowbear and Roo.

I guess I have to face the facts that I won't be going. My missus is giving my loads of grief for being a weather enthusiast and not being able to pick a suitable time to go on holiday  :blink:   I am sure others have experienced similar grief when they get weather things wrong...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I know it's an a**e but don't cancel, let the Travel Agency/ Tour operator call the shots (i.e. don't take any initiative for they will not be liable for your losses.......even if it means turning up at the airport at the appointed time!!! unless it isn't a finacial concern of course). If the airports/hotels are shut then i think they have to make good ,if you cancel you may have to bear some of the losses.

[Mondy]

New thread up "waiting for alpha" :blink:

here

(saves messing the Wilma thread up)

[Brrr]

I don't think it's that. If it was Florida, the beeb would have reporters all over and they'd make it the top story 4 hours or more even before TS winds started.

But this is Mexico, and so in the mind of the beeb, it's news, butthe fact that two tory leadership candidates now have 6 weeks to campaign is bigger news. It's no different from the oil comment really. It may be a hash thing to hear, but that is unfortunately just how the world is.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I was saying that a few posts back.. we (as in media) seem to ignore the weather/catastrophic events more or less depending on where they are in the world - to some degree anywhere not in the main part of Europe or North America gets largely ignored - imagine if Wilma had landed anywhere in the U.S., we'd have every reporter and camera pointing in that direction!.

Edited October 21, 2005 by Brrr

[Joneseye]

I know it's an a**e but don't cancel, let the Travel Agency/ Tour operator call the shots (i.e. don't take any initiative for they will not be liable for your losses.......even if it means turning up at the airport at the appointed time!!! unless it isn't a finacial concern of course). If the airports/hotels are shut then i think they have to make good ,if you cancel you may have to bear some of the losses.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for all the advice peeps!

I think I will wait for things to calm down a bit before making any kind of contact just to be sure of what I am facing.

[smich]

Evening all

definate turn NNE on the latest loop, possibly only "half of a landfall" ....

...a "half-fall"? :blink:

Smich

[SnowBear]

URNT12 KNHC 211801

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 21/17:44:00Z

B. 20 deg 19 min N

086 deg 43 min W

C. 700 mb 2461 m

D. NA kt

E. NA deg nm

F. 101 deg 116 kt

G. 010 deg 035 nm

H. 926 mb

I. 7 C/ 3048 m

J. 20 C/ 3042 m

K. 12 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C30

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.03 / 1 nm

P. AF305 1524A WILMA OB 08

MAX FL WIND 116 KT N QUAD 17:24:50 Z

[Mondy]

On the close up loop she is now moving NNW - turn has started!

[smich]

On the close up loop she is now moving NNW - turn has started!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Mondy, do you not read ANY previous posts?! I announced this half an hour a go!

(attempting a corny and VERY funny play on words at the same time :blink: )

Smich

[Mondy]

Sorry!

You did say NNE though

:blink:

Edit: Actually, it's probably due north at the mo: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Edited October 21, 2005 by Mondy

[*Stormforce~beka*]

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/wilma.htm

anyone seen this good link??

[kold weather]

The island of Cozumel is now completely in the large eye,its western eyewall has recovred a little since earlier this eveing and the latest adviorsary has the winds at 140mph whic hseems to have been backed up by the latest report from recon suggesting 120kts winds roughly in the eyewall and so its still likely a proper cat-4 at landfall,gusts must be upto 170mph.

In terms of track in the short term,I can't really see a NNW movement to be honest mondy at least on IR and visables can be a little hard to follow when high cloud and vorticies start to cover the eye,for tracking at least a cloudy eye,IR would be better at least in this type of set-up,so still looks NW to me.I'll put up the latest upper atmopshere charts in a few minutes but it should show the trough that was responsible for the tug to the north passing to the east of the TC,however there is a second trough now digging down and this should be the one that sends Wilma to do the turn towards Florida,probably emerging into the gulf at 120mph hurricane.

Edited October 21, 2005 by kold weather

[smich]

Sorry!

You did say NNE though

Edit: Actually, it's probably due north at the mo: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Er...I meant she was turning in a NNEastwardly direction! :blink:

Smich

[Mondy]

:lol:

Back on topic, good post Kw..

Hate to image what Cozumel will look like in the coming hours...devastation is the only word i can think off