Wilma Watching

[SnowBear]

http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml

Damage UPDATE (5PM CDT) 

From: "Kevin Alexander Murcko" <cancunkev at hotmail.com>

Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2005 17:13:23 -0600 

[crimsone]

Fair play to the man - He's certainly commited!

[crimsone]

BBC video report - top right of page on a grey buttom marked "video" - on this page... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4362076.stm#

[SMU]

This thing is all but stalled at the moment-

Hows this for unlucky-( and a bit worrying)

My X-Girlfriend is currently in Cancun with her friend from wk- on her friends honeymoon as she split up with her other half-

Havent heard from her in 3 days- Nor has her sister-

Lets hope the direction changes soon as....

S

[hotflyer882]

Nice Pic.

[I can't believe it's not better]

This thing is all but stalled at the moment-

Hows this for unlucky-( and a bit worrying)

My X-Girlfriend is currently in Cancun with her friend from wk- on her friends honeymoon as she split up with her other half-

Havent heard from her in 3 days-  Nor has her sister- 

Lets hope the direction changes soon as....

S

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I imagine they're busy evacuating.

[SnowBear]

Steve, keep us posted please, many have evacuated to shelters, and I know the wait for info is gonna be heck all nasty.

Few places to keep a look out on, or post to for info maybe if needed

[nwlink=http://www.canMr Burnsravelonline.com/forum/index.php' target='_blank]http://www.canMr Burnsravelonline.com/forum/index.php[/nwlink]

http://help.stormcarib.com/list.php?5

http://help.stormcarib.com/list.php?2

Hope all are found safe and well!

Edit: Darn it, forum wont let me post the first one cos of a bad word in the URL string...it should read //cancun travelonline.com//...no space

[Hurricane Debby]

Nice Pic.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is truly awesome

[SnowBear]

I'm off for the night folks

An interesting day, and another tomorrow I think. And as Steve has just said above, lets hope Wilma dont stall for too long, those folks there sure dont need it.

night !

[Hurricane Debby]

Night all xxx

[crimsone]

Night DJM.

I'm off myself now Good night

[Hurricane Debby]

Thing is I don't want to go to bed !!

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 4:45 pm EDT, October 21, 2005

COZUMEL INSIDE THE INCREDIBLE EYE OF WILMA- CONDITIONS THERE MOSTLY UNKNOWN RIGHT NOW- FLORIDA STILL WAITING

This hurricane season will be remembered for many things, today, a satellite photo showing Cozumel fimrly inside the eye of hurricane Wilma will be one of the most memorable photos of the season. Still, the hurricane is moving slowly and bringing hurricane conditions to a good deal of the northeast tip of the peninsula. It will be another day before Wilma finally moves away. Then- the countdown to Florida will begin. The latest word from the NHC suggests that landfall in Florida will be sometime on Monday near Naples. This can change as we all know and it is vitally important for people in SW and SE Florida to keep close tabs on Wilma this weekend. Continue the preparations and be patient- this is taking a long time and that prolongs the anxiety which I know can get out of hand at times. I just want people to be ready for what ever Wilma throws at Florida- hopefully it will not be much!

I have spent the day in Collier County working on scouting out locations for various weather gear and the remote cameras. I also went on an air-boat tour of the incredible Everglades. It is amazing to see such a unique ecosystem and know that it cares little about Wilma and its next move. This was in stark contrast to the hustle and bustle of Naples and surrounding areas as people continue to get ready. I will upload some video of the air-boat tour later on just to give you an idea of what that was like. Hey, there is not much to do while waiting for this slow moving hurricane- might as well have made the best of it. I will post more info here around 11pm ET.

Courtesy hurricane track

[D KARLSON]

em, the one's posted on the links thread are crap tbh..

Now Wilma's probably heading to Florida a lot more will become available.

I've still kept all the Katrina TV feeds in me' files, but as yet, not a lot happening with the Florida feeds (they all tend to integrate with one another)..

EDIT: http://eyenet.wm.llnwd.net/eyenet_livenews1 (nothing yet, but bookmark all the same) 

EDIT2: This is easier (windows media player btw)

mms://eyenet.wm.llnwd.net/eyenet_livenews1  -------you'll need to copy and paste that url though..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Once again cheers mondy!!!!!!

[smich]

Morning everyone

Here's the most recent advisory (27A)

000

WTNT34 KNHC 220539

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...LARGE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA OVER PLAYA DEL

CARMEN ON THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...RELENTESSLY POUNDING

CANCUN AND COZUMEL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM

WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA

HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF

YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE

PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE

ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD

CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OVER PLAYA DEL

CARMEN YUCATAN OR ABOUT 25 MILES...45 KM...SOUTHWESTOF CANCUN

MEXICO.

WILMA HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS FORECAST

TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR TODAY. ON

THIS TRACK...THE CORE WILMA WILL BE AFFECTING THE EXTREME

NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ALL DAY SATURDAY.

SINCE THE EYE IS ALREADY INLAND...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE

PROBABLY DECREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

WILMA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. SOME ADDIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS

WHILE THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 200 MILES...325 KM. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED IN

ISLA MUJERES HAS BEEN REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE

DURING THE PAST 10 TO 12 HOURS WITH A MAXIMUM WIND GUST TO 108

MPH...173 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG ON THE

NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH

SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL

CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY THE

KEYS... PRODUCING 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE

SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERN

GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...20.8 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT...

MEANDERING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL

PRESSURE... 935 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The eye has lost integrity now and NW eyewall has collapsed, but she may even now still be packing 135mph+ winds.

Hardly moved since yesterday...

Smich

[kold weather]

yeah the eye has completely collapsed and its still moving westwards at the moment so the trough clearly hasn't gotten far enoug heast t ostart t osend the system more northwards.Looks like it's gonig to be spending alot of time over land,probably 12-18hrs I suspect,I reckon it'll only slowly weaken though as it still has a very good inner core ad is going to be slow to weaken and so may stil lbe a lower end cat-3 when it come soff,or at least a strong cat-2.

Future for this system is to be taken north-eastwards quite rapidly and will be sheared and under cooler waters it'll stil llikely be a cat-2 when it makes landfall,however with it moving very fast it'll probably be more like a cat-3 in the southern quadrant.

[Hurricane Debby]

Morning all. Its quiet on here !

[Mondy]

5 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THE EYE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN AND IS BECOMING

LESS DISCERNIBLE ON IR IMAGES....BUT IT REMAINS CLEARLY DEFINED ON

CANCUN RADAR. VERY USEFUL DATA HAS BEEN RECEIVED FROM SEVERAL

MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC COASTAL STATIONS AROUND YUCATAN. THE

STATION LOCATED IN ISLA MUJERES LOCATED OFFSHORE NEAR THE

NORTHEATERN TIP OF YUCATAN HAS BEEN MEASURING MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 90 KNOTS FOR MORE THAN 9 HOURS. LATEST MAXIMUM WIND AT 06z WAS 88 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE EYE IS INLAND THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KNOTS. SOME ADDITIONAL

WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE THE EYE IS

MOVING OVER YUCATAN. A MODEST STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR ONCE THE

HURRICANE MOVES BACK OVER WATER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO

LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BEYOND 48 HOURS

SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WILMA

IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC AFTER

CROSSING FLORIDA. THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING

FLORIDA IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH KEEP AN INTENSE

HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 115 KNOTS AND THE SHIPS MODEL THAT RAPIDLY

WEAKENS THE CYCLONE.

WILMA HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A GRADUAL

NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

THEREAFTER...A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS

FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND FORCE WILMA TO MOVE ON A NORTHEAST TRACK

WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL

MODELS ARE IN A BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT MAKING THE OFFICIAL TRACK

FORECAST MORE CERTAIN. IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE DEFINITE THAT

HURRICANE WILMA WILL CROSS FLORIDA IN A HURRY ON MONDAY. THE LONGER

THAT WILMA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...THE CHANCES BECOME GREATER

FOR A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS INDICATED BY SOME GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN

AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE A CATEGORY ONE OR

TWO AT LANDFALL. WILMA'S WIND FIELD WILL PROBABLY EXPAND AS IT

CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA.

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM

FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY

BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND

THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 20.9N 87.2W 110 KT

12HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 87.3W 90 KT...INLAND

24HR VT 23/0600Z 22.0N 87.0W 100 KT...OVER WATER

36HR VT 23/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 100 KT

48HR VT 24/0600Z 24.5N 83.5W 95 KT

72HR VT 25/0600Z 32.0N 74.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 26/0600Z 41.0N 64.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 27/0600Z 46.0N 54.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Gray-Wolf]

Wilma and Yukatan are taking a beating at present, Yukatan will survive. Should Wilma manage to survive this encounter she would need time to 're-assert' herself' but the forcast doesn't give her this time.

Nobody is 'deserving' of her attentions but in some ways it is the U.S. Govt. who needed this beating to enable them to 'grasp the nettle' so far as their unwillingness to appreciate the impact that our climate can have on people and their possible part in the climates degradation.

Moan over.

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 11:00 pm EDT, October 21, 2005

NHC INDICATES STRONGER WILMA AS IT HEADS FOR FLORIDA

While the Yucatan Peninsula is dealing with ferocious hurricane Wilma tonight, the attention will soon shift more to Florida and where/how strong the hurricane will be when it gets there. The 11pm information suggests that Wilma will not weaken as much as previously indicated. This means that Florida could see a stronger hurricane. It is still too soon to know for sure- and I think we all realize that. However, waiting around to see how strong it is, or is not, does not make good sense. Continue to prepare and do all you can to prepare for this hurricane. This means people on the SW coast and as well people on the SE coast. Remember- the NWS website for your local area will have excellent local information.

As far as the Yucatan and places like Cozumel and Cancun, we are hearing reports of damage, injuries and even a couple of births. It will be interesting to see what reports come out tomorrow when daylight arrives once again. We certainly will be hoping for some good news- although it is hard to imagine what people have had to endure there all day today.

Courtesy Hurricane Track

[Mondy]

edited - the url is not displaying the forum pages - even when i copy and paste it :lol:

"http://canMr Burnsravelonline.com/" try that in your browser - i think the site has been hi-jacked

it should be - C-A-N-C-U-N-T-R-A-V-E-L.COM, but that's not what i'm getting when i paste it!!! :lol:

edited again - it's the bloody net weather swear filter :lol: :lol: :work it out :lol:

try http://cancun.travelonline.com, but drop the full stop between n and t :lol:

once into the side scroll down to cancun forum and wilma pages are in there

[Thundersquall]

I have read a book recently called "Florida's Hurricane History", detailing Florida's hurricanes up to 1995. It mentioned Florida's residents are always on the lookout for the "Big One" - that is a really major Category 5 hurricane.

Although Wilma will weaken considerably (or maybe only slightly - it probably won't be over land for long and parts of the eastern flank may well remain over the sea judging by the Natioanl Hurricane Centre maps) it will increase markedly in strength as it pushes NE towards the southern counties of Florida.

Remember it deepened by 70 millibars in 9 hours a few days ago, attaining a record low for the Atlantic of 884 mb?

So it's definitely one to watch, not only for Florida, but maybe the British Isles as well, if the remnants head our way as an extra-tropical depression.

[Snow Queen one]

Been downgraded now to cat 3 still moving slowly and expected to hit Florida as a cat 1. Some time on Monday morn

[johnholmes]

see the other thread on next weekend and also have a look at the 06Z GFS T+180 and subsequent. Yes she will 'hit' the UK, details will change as we get nearer but she is going to be here next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.html

is from the 06Z run; for Saturday 18Z

regards

John

[Mondy]

From that cancun forum

"We have some very troubling information coming from our team in Cancun. Police and military are reporting the following:

The Boulevard Kukulcan where all of the hotels are located is no longer visible. The Caribbean Sea has crossed over and met the Lagoon and the waters are rising. All hotels in the hotel zone are flooded and taking water.

The Hyatt Hotel (not sure whether it is Regency or Cancun Caribe) has suffered "extensive structural damage". If you remember earlier images in the thread there were some photos from Televisa of the Hyatt Hotel taken from The Mall Forum by the Sea.

The Hurricane has provoked tornados in the region as well as in Cuba where 4 tornados caused some destruction there.

80% of Cancun is flooded with 3 to nearly 5 feet of water.

The Mayor of Cancun and the Committee for Hurricanes made a tactical decision about 2 hours ago to evacuate some of the areas as well as some of the shelters that are in danger of flooding. The governor of Quintana Roo said in a press release just an hour ago that Cancun and the Riviera Maya has received unprecidented damage and the worst is yet to come.

We do not know what areas yet or whether they are locals or tourists.

Again the downtown area is flooded as well and Gaby is reporting that our friends from Televisa are trapped in a hotel downtown and are awaiting rescue from military staff.

There has still only been one reported death in Cancun and the 9 injured in Playa Del Carmen so far.

Susana Lopez is reporting that they are not able to leave the hotel where they are in downtown called the Handel Hotel because of high water and currents passing the hotel.

Military Troops have arrived from Veracruz and Tabasco with Boats and equipment prepared to move in and evacuate or rescue after the storm has died down.

State Police reported just a short while ago that the area of the Hilton Cancun and the Marriott is "out of control". We don't know what that means as communication in Cancun is minimal.

More coming in :lol: