Wilma Watching

[crimsone]

No matter about the front just yet - she's pretty much over water again <_<

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/...=-1&duration=10

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Looks lke half of her eyewall is off the land - but the land is rounded to the same rough shape as the eyewall, and it happens to be sitting quite centrally on it. The picture could be decieving in that even though half the eyewall is over the sea, much of the eye could still be over land I think. Still, it shouldn't be that way for more than an hour or two.

Edited October 22, 2005 by crimsone

[Mondy]

The 12z GFDL model still has Wilma picking up Alpha: <_<

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi...&hour=Animation

[crimsone]

The 12z GFDL model still has Wilma picking up Alpha: <_<

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi...&hour=Animation

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The 12z model has Alpha a lot weaker than the 6z too. It's probably more accurate, but 12z is not quite as exciting <_<

Edited October 22, 2005 by crimsone

[Mondy]

As an aside the 12z UKM picks up on next weeks stormy trends for the UK

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation

Edited October 22, 2005 by Mondy

[kold weather]

There is definatly a front there,although I wouldn't say its major its definatly there,the latest wind profiles seem to prove that idea.Currently about 150 mile soff-shore from the gulf coast and just clearing the panhandle.As SF once told me,just because ther eis a trough or front doesn't mean there will be any precip with it,a front simply is the boundary between one airmass and another.

Anyway GFDL 12z is intresting,it has Wilma moving rapidly ENE and reaching cat-3,with winds at 950mbs upto 120kts.Would cause alot of mess if it came in at that,esp as many are only prepared for a cat-1,lower cat-2 sort of winds.I think GFDL may well be close to the actual strength of Wilma at the time,as I think the NHC maybe under-estimating the system a little.

Looks like it may take another hour or so before the eye itslef leaves land but considering what its been through its done very well and even now still has its inner core intact with the eyewall still there and the eye while completely cloud covered is still present.Sometimes it can take a large system like this abit of time to get itslef together again but I think it'll handle itslef okay considering its still got a cracking circulation and its inner core is still impressive it should have no problem getting stronger again until shear starts to play its part,at least its forecast to by the global models.

(ps,another TD there Mondy according to the models,impressive low indeed for the UK,almost looks like a hurricane itslef!!!)

Edited October 22, 2005 by kold weather

[crimsone]

Another TD? where!? Are you talking about Alpha, or something completely different?

Could be exciting!!! are you talking about at t+144 on the model above just at the bottom of the carribean?

Edited October 22, 2005 by crimsone

[kold weather]

If that came off and it was a tropical depression,then it would be TD-26.With so many wave features still hovering about there is certainly the possiblty I'd have thought for TD-26 before October's out,will have to watch to see if any wave features getting favorable areas,certainly the seas are warm enough for us to get Tropical storm Beta but thats still in the future and a maybe.

(yes thats the system crimsone,to the south of the Carribean)

Edited October 22, 2005 by kold weather

[Mondy]

Video feed

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/h...3085231.wmvfile

Edit: It's pretty crap - but NHC have a live update broadcast at 10pm our time (i think)!

Edited October 22, 2005 by Mondy

[I can't believe it's not better]

As an aside the 12z UKM picks up on next weeks stormy trends for the UK

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=Animation

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Nice aside. Can't imagine many trees will get blown over that weren't blown over 15 years ago - perhaps some Barrsatts tree planting at best. Maybe some suv's might be blown over a bridge, or blown into the other carriadgeway - have to wait and see...

[crimsone]

Good to see the threat to Florida being taken very seriously. Nice link Mondy. <_<

Edited October 22, 2005 by crimsone

[crimsone]

Good to see the threat to Florida being taken very seriously. Nice link Mondy. <_<

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Advisory 30...

...WILMA ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF YUCATAN...

...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE

WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE

EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...

INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST

COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY NORTHWARD TO

STEINHATCHEE RIVER... AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM

NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM

WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING

FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR

DEL RIO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF

YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF

MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO

PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.  A

HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN

THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST... ABOUT 25 MILES... 40

KM NORTHWEST OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 405 MILES... 650 KM...

WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR.  A GRADUAL

TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY THREE STATUS DURING THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE

HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... WILL

CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN

YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10

TO 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS

APPROACHING 50 INCHES.  RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING

THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH

ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE

EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS

OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE

FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...21.4 N... 87.1 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  2 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...100 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM

CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

$$

and so it "begins".

This is where we get the better idea of where she's going, when, and how intese. stay tuned folks!

Edited October 22, 2005 by crimsone

[crimsone]

BBC News is reporting on the devastation in Mexico as a major story now. I smile not for the devatstation, but for the fact that the media are taking notice and telling it how it is, even if the reports are shorter than I would like. <_<

As expected, we'ew looking at total devestation if what we already know about is anything to go by. The reports so far are just the tip of the iceberg I fear <_<

(please, no climate change jokes at this point... lol)

Edited October 22, 2005 by crimsone

[Roo]

BBC News is reporting on the devastation in Mexico as a major story now. I smile not for the devatstation, but for the fact that the media are taking notice and telling it how it is, even if the reports are shorter than I would like.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No-one seems to be mentioning the fact that 14 people have already died in Haiti and Jamaica. US gets hit, the world stops...poor caribbean islands, oh well.... <_<

EDIT: By 'no-one' I mean the media...sorry wasn't being clear! <_<

Edited October 22, 2005 by Roo

[crimsone]

No-one seems to be mentioning the fact that 14 people have already died in Haiti and Jamaica. US gets hit, the world stops...poor caribbean islands, oh well.... <_<

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It has been mentioned a few times, but not as a story in it's own right - just as passing support in descriptions of how strong the storm is. <_<

[I can't believe it's not better]

BBC News is reporting on the devastation in Mexico as a major story now. I smile not for the devatstation, but for the fact that the media are taking notice and telling it how it is, even if the reports are shorter than I would like. <_<

As expected, we'ew looking at total devestation if what we already know about is anything to go by. The reports so far are just the tip of the iceberg I fear <_<

(please, no climate change jokes at this point... lol)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I was thinking earlier about 20' waves hitting hotels. Hotels don't strike me as well built buildings. Maybe I haven't been to the right hotels.

[Roo]

I was thinking earlier about 20' waves hitting hotels.  Hotels don't strike me as well built buildings.  Maybe I haven't been to the right hotels.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If it's anything like when I used to go out there they will have moved everyone well inland.

The best buildings to be in are the churches as they're all built like the proverbial outbuilding. That's why they tend to be used as shelters all the time...most of them have stood up to hundreds of years of hurricanes <_<

[Mondy]

CANCUN, Mexico, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Hurricane Wilma blasted through Mexico's luxury Caribbean resorts on Saturday, smashing homes and killing at least two people in a slow-moving, rain-swelled rampage across the Yucatan peninsula.

Howling hurricane winds tore off roofs and uprooted trees for a third day and kept thousands of panicky foreign tourists packed into sweltering shelters.

The long spit of white sand that draws planeloads of tourists to Cancun was completely under water and the luxury hotels along it were flooded up to the knee and littered with debris after the normally tranquil sea charged inland. Sheets of rain continued falling on Saturday.

Wilma by midday had lost some punch, its winds slowing to 110 mph (175 kmh), down from 115-mile-an-hour (185-kph), and was downgraded to a Category 2 hurricane on the five-stage Saffir-Simpson scale.

With roads blocked by downed trees and tangles of fallen power cables, only a few locals ventured out as the calmer eye of the storm hovered over Cancun's devastated center.

"It's a complete disaster. The city is totally destroyed," said restaurant worker Pablo Resendiz, picking his way through flooded streets, looking for two friends.

Nearby a car lay crushed with a fallen wall on top. Buildings in the town center had their fronts torn off.

"We are looking for food. I don't know where we'll find any," said Pedro Hernandez, 32, walking through the debris. He said the roof was ripped off his home.

Further south, at the resort town of Playa del Carmen, two people died when a gas tank exploded, the state governor said.

Half a dozen flimsy homes were knocked down in the town, which is popular with Europeans, and many streets flooded.

The Yucatan peninsula, famous for its turquoise seas, white sand and Mayan ruins, has been lashed by Wilma since Thursday.

A man died in the west of the state when a large branch blew off and crushed him, local emergency officials said.

Florida was next in line for a battering. Authorities there were taking no risks after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans, and ordered mandatory evacuations, starting with 80,000 residents of the vulnerable Florida Keys.

"Take this seriously. There will be flooding," Key West spokesman Michael Haskins told local radio.

Still, the longer it lingers in Mexico the weaker Wilma will be when it heads north toward Florida, likely on Sunday.

It was still strong enough to cause severe damage, however, as it continued to pound the Cancun area throughout Saturday.

ANOTHER NIGHT IN SHELTERS

Resort island Cozumel, popular with scuba divers, took the brunt of the storm on Friday and most communications were cut. President Vicente Fox will visit the battered area on Sunday.

In one shelter 40 migrant workers huddled in a small, damp room. They had only eaten half a can of tuna each in 24 hours.

"We need water, food and clothes," pleaded Carlos Vaca, a construction worker from the state of Tabasco.

"I have lived through three hurricanes and this is the worst," said Alberto Pat, head of Playa del Carmen's tourist police force, which was patrolling to prevent looting.

Store fronts were ripped away, a bus station roof had collapsed, and cars lay crushed by fallen trees. Five prisoners escaped from a jail into the jungle after a fence blew down.

"Never in history have we seen something like this," Felix Gonzalez, the governor of the state of Quintana Roo, told CNN.

Some 23 inches (59 cm) of rain was dumped on tiny Isla Mujeres off Cancun, an unprecedented downpour for Mexico.

"We are talking about a record hurricane as far as rain is concerned," said meteorologist Alberto Hernandez. Wilma is also unusually big with a diameter of 500 miles (800 km).

Thousands of stranded tourists prepared for another night huddled in dank, sweaty gymnasiums, hotels and schools but many were relieved they had evacuated, especially those who had stayed in flimsy wooden beach cabins.

"We are very fortunate to be here. We were in a palm hut. I bet there is nothing left. I cannot wait for this to be over," said Scott Whitcher, 38, from San Francisco. He was bathing in rain on a hotel balcony after two days without running water.

In one Cancun hotel, tourists nailed up tables to keep out the rain after the windows blew in with a huge explosion.

Some 1,600 tourists in a gymnasium were moved to safer locations just before the roof blew off, a city official said.

Mudslides caused by Wilma killed 10 people in Haiti this week and Cuba, which evacuated 559,000 people, was hit by drenching rains and tornadoes in the west of the island. More rain was forecast in Cuba as Wilma moves northeast.

Wilma was expected to head into the Gulf of Mexico late on Saturday evening and could hit southern Florida on Monday.

This hurricane season has spawned three of the most intense storms on record. Experts say the Atlantic has entered a period of heightened storm activity that could last 20 more years. (Additional reporting by Greg Brosnan in Playa del Carmen, Monica Medel in Mexico City, Michael Christie in Miami, Laura Myers in Key West and Anthony Boadle in Cuba)

[conor123]

Hurricane Wilma is dying fast now.

It may strengthen again though

[Kain]

You think? I thought it has lasted very well so far..

Kain

[Mondy]

Eye earlier

Eye now over water:

[conor123]

You think? I thought it has lasted very well so far..

Kain

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It has but since it's lost it's eye again,

it's weakened rapidly

However the eye is starting to appear again

Edited October 22, 2005 by conor123

[Gray-Wolf]

Cheers Mondy for the NWS Front 'views'

The 'current' map that K.W. put up (6:22pm) has quite a 'convex' shape to the front yet the NHC's version kinda' buckles and is flattened. Compare the two of them. I'd go for the NHC version of the 'current' position myself though it does pose the question (to me at least!) is Wilma affecting the 'deployment' of the front across the northern G.O.M.?

[Kain]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

You can clearly see it now move NE

Kain

[Mondy]

For all it's been on land for god knows how long, the eye is still remarkably strong looking as it enters the GoM..

Convection on the NE side (nearest Florida) looks like it's bubbling away nicely <_<

Edited October 22, 2005 by Mondy

[Brrr]

Here's some good videos from Reuters...the videos show some of the devastation... scroll down middle left hand side....

reuters link

Edited October 22, 2005 by Brrr