Nw Pacific Activity

[Typhoon Hunter]

A new tropical storm has formed in the NW Pacific off the coast of the Phillipines. This is T0615 and has been assigned the name Xangsane (no idea how to pronounce that - I think Laos may have provided it.) Here's the latest JMA advisory:

T0615 (XANGSANE)

Issued at 03:00 UTC 26 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE (0615)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 260300UTC 11.9N 127.3E FAIR

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

30KT 120NM

FORECAST

24HF 270300UTC 13.2N 125.7E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

45HF 280000UTC 14.4N 124.3E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 045KT

Looking quite tidy on latest vis saetllite (courtesy of NRL Monterey TC Homepage):

The latest ECMWF chart has this exploding once it enters the South China Sea. I'll very very interested to see what happens.

Edited September 26, 2006 by Typhoon Hunter

[Typhoon Hunter]

Wow....Xangsane has exploded and become a typhoon before making landfall on the Phillipines. JMA have winds at 70kts, here's their latest advisory:

Issued at 03:00 UTC 27 Sep 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) UPGRADED FROM STS

ANALYSIS

PSTN 270300UTC 12.7N 125.1E GOOD

MOVE WNW 09KT

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 070KT

50KT 70NM

30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 280300UTC 14.0N 122.5E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 07KT

PRES 955HPA

MXWD 075KT

45HF 290000UTC 14.9N 119.3E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW 09KT

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 070KT

69HF 300000UTC 15.6N 115.3E 220NM 70%

MOVE W 09KT

PRES 955HPA

MXWD 075KT

The latest JTWC tracking chart has Xangsane crossing the Phillipines and strengthening into a howler in the South China Sea. Here's their latest chart:

And here's the latest vis satellite, courtesy of NRL Monterey TC Homepage. As you can see the eye is very clear!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Phillipines about to get an absolute hammering, gonna be serious trouble there.

TY Cimaron has absolutely exploded overnight, dropped 65HPA in 24 hours, it's now at 910HPA. Forecast to make landfall with winds up to 130kts (JTWC forecast.)

Here's the latest vis satellite image...it is absolutely stunning:

[Somerset Squall]

Looks beautiful on the satellite image. Shame it's going to cause so much trouble.

[Somerset Squall]

Looks beautiful on the satellite image. Shame it's going to cause so much trouble.

Now a cat 5 on the saffir simpson scale now. This is going to be a disaster

[parmenides3]

Now a cat 5 on the saffir simpson scale now. This is going to be a disaster

Made landfall at 161 MPH at 0900 local time. Reuters Alertnet report & link to another good site:

http://www.alertnet.org/thefacts/reliefres...200622W_22W.htm

This looks like a bad one.

PS: Not including Cimaron, the NW pacific ACE score for 2006 so far is 247.8; 19 named systems, 11 hurricane force storms, 7 extreme force (now and 12 separate landfall events. Does anyone know what the ACE average is for a year/season?

:)P

[Paranoid]

The last time i checked this storm it was only at 975mbar, and it was heading towards Japan (from which i have just returned). I hope the damage in the Phillipines isn't too bad.

[Somerset Squall]

Made landfall at 161 MPH at 0900 local time. Reuters Alertnet report & link to another good site:

http://www.alertnet.org/thefacts/reliefres...200622W_22W.htm

This looks like a bad one.

PS: Not including Cimaron, the NW pacific ACE score for 2006 so far is 247.8; 19 named systems, 11 hurricane force storms, 7 extreme force (now and 12 separate landfall events. Does anyone know what the ACE average is for a year/season?

P

305 is the average according to this, give or take 98 most years

ace average

The best of luck to the philippines

[parmenides3]

Thanks for that, SS. This system will probably bring the numbers up to around the seasonal average, by the look of it.

INQ7 reports that four provinces in Luzon are on alert level 4; schools were closed this morning, and most people were told to stay at home and not go to work. Apparently, there's a high risk of flash floods and landslides. Damage may well be severe; let's just hope that loss of life is minimalised. :(P

[Andy H]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/6096606.stm