Invest 91l

[Mondy]

It(Debby) really is bobbing along[at pace} right now.

Gonna enter warmer water soon the way it's continuing.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.gif

[parmenides3]

Thought I'd put this here cause I can't think where else to put it.

NOAA CONTINUES TO PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL HURRICANE SEASON

With the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season upon us, experts from NOAA are reiterating their prediction for an above-normal number of storms. NOAA scientists warn this year's relatively quiet start is not an indication of what the remainder of the season has in store. "This year's three named storms may pale in comparison to the record nine storms that formed through early August 2005, but conditions will be favorable for above-normal activity for the rest of this season—so we are not off the hook by any means," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. For the entire 2006 season, which ends November 30, NOAA is projecting a total of 12 to 15 named storms of which seven to nine will intensify to hurricanes, including three or four becoming major hurricanes—rated at Category 3 or higher.

Source: NOAA

[wolves78]

Storm prediction trimmed, but we're ``not off the hook''

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/15224633.htm

or try my forum http://wolves78.forumco.com/topic~TOPIC_ID~5.asp

Edited August 9, 2006 by wolves78

[Gray-Wolf]

Well 91L is still kinda there but I can see no circulation today just convection (which may be masking a small amount of circulation). It will be entering both warmer waters and a more favourable shear environmemt today so we'll see what we will see!

[kold weather]

I agree I'm having a hard time finding west winds on the southern section of the system even on hi-resolution satelite, which suggests that the LLC has died away overnight, which is definatly the reason why they probably haven't upgraded the system. The system still has a lot of convection though which still gives this system a fair shot if it does decide to re-form a new LLC but chances of development aren't as high as they were yesterday night.

[SnowBear]

Hmmmm

Kinda think the circulation is shrouded from view at the moment, looking at the Dvorak... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-bd.html

Mass of white blooms into the centre under all the cloud etc. (Note the little system a short distance to the east too, on the left of the loop)

Water Vapour loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

My guess is the circulation died while a shift/transfer slightly north took place, which is now not visible due to all the convection....

Loop for Caribbean JSL, I-91L shows nicely http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-jsl.html

And also Funktop loop shows that jolt NW http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ft.html

Be interesting to see what happens today!

B)

[crimsone]

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD

ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWER AND

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS

MORNING...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL

REACH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION OR STORM HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE

DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH

GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE

LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST

10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAD BEEN ASSOCIATED

WITH THIS WAVE. THE LOW CENTER HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING ONLY AN

OPEN TROPICAL WAVE. THE POSSIBILITIES OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DEVELOPING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ARE BECOMING FEWER WITH TIME.

THE WAVE STILL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ACROSS SOME AREAS

OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. NUMEROUS

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 14N

BETWEEN 55W AND 57W.

[Gray-Wolf]

Well it looks like they weren't wrong about the t. Storms as it's bubblin' up nicely again today. I cannot discern any circulation either so an open wave it is! Debs will just have to wait!!!

EDIT: 1 hell of an isolated storm though!!

Edited August 9, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[Kain]

Is it me, or on the latest loop does it look like its starting to get a little circulation going?

Kain

[crimsone]

StormFloater 2

Dvorak loop - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-bd.html

IR Loop - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Visible - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Visible Isn't working at this time due to a java file not found exception on my machine. Is it just my machine, or is the file missing from their server? It appears the applet loaded ok for me.

[Gray-Wolf]

The upper level outflow looks to have some movement but is that just shear? The RAMSDIS image shows a heck of a lot of convection going up so the islands are going to get wet this p.m.!

[kold weather]

Yeah a very good flare-up once again, its got good convection as I said this morning that will work in its favor. Still got some shear but that doesn't seem to be enough to stop it organising.The smple fact is if it had a LLC this would be a TD for sure, even with a shout at a TS. However the outflow is improving and there is a lot of convection. prehaps even more importantly there is a hint of circulation as Kain said a little while ago, not sure whether its surface based or higher up but it could well be re-forming its center, which would come as no suprise given the size and depth of the recent convective burst.

Also worth noting recon is going to investigate this system later on today, will be intresting to see whether they can close of a low or not, its definatly structurly strong enough to be upgraded, just lavcking that final part,a closed circulation.

[crimsone]

Well, the visible is back. It appears to be above the eastern windward island by now. Is it me, or is the whole thing starting to turn?

Edited August 9, 2006 by crimsone

[SnowBear]

Seems to be spinning abit from the loops I am watching for sure...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-jsl.html JSL

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ft.html Funktop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-bd.html Dvorak

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the southern half of it has 'turned' as you would expect it to but the mass of convection that is the North of it hides any hint of movement from me. The convection is now running in front of the main system (from the 16:15 image) so I'm wondering if this is an indication of pressure falling away allowing the convection to 'spread out' further. Any thoughts anyone?

EDIT: Is the top half taking off on its own (to the NW) ?

EDIT: EDIT: I'll ramble on some more!!!! The indent in the clouds (at 3 O'clock) seems to be inflow feeding the convection to the front. This indent has now caused some movement as it 'hoovers' into the main body of cloud, it almost looks as though it will be the southern portion that will form the centre if a low is developing. Need input guys!!!

Edited August 9, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[stormmanic]

Is it me, or is it experiencing shear on the RF quadrant? The outflow seems to be being blown back eastwards.

Am still learning so I could be wrong!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Gray-Wolf]

Now this looks interesting for an 'open wave' doncha think?

(Ta RAMSDIS Online)

[SnowBear]

Been watching this system most of the day, I think there has been circulation there all day personally at low level, just its been obscured from view. When you look on some of the loops you can see low level cloud being drawn in and anti-clockwise.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

Last frame on that loop....be interesting to see what it does now....we await recon!

Edited August 9, 2006 by SnowBear

[Somerset Squall]

Now this looks interesting for an 'open wave' doncha think?

(Ta RAMSDIS Online)

Surely that's got to be a tropical depression!

[Gray-Wolf]

Last frame on that loop....be interesting to see what it does now....we await recon!

You betcha! And I bet they turn them around and send them right back out! I've been waiting for an update but I think recon will have missed the last 90mins development so will come back to sat. images that give more information (maybe at least) than their flight.

Do we think that over the next 8 weeks we may see something 'special' in the way of rapid formation/intensification of systems (as was seen last year on a couple of occasions when systems moved over 'warm loops')? NOAA's refusal to adapt their forcast for their season (even with a 'normal to poor' start to the season) would suggest that the 'Frequency' of storms now has to be quite high to meet their tally's.

EDIT: Hi Atmosfear! I've got the image on my veiwer and if you pull right in on it it looks a stage on from that!!!

Edited August 9, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[crimsone]

I sure hope that mass of cloud on the NW quadrant doesn't wrap around and smother the system! I don't know what the chances of that happening are, but it certainly seems possible to my mind from that image.

If it did wrap back into the system without smothering it though, I'm pretty sure we'd have a ready-made and well structured TS :lol: lol

I think recon will have missed the last 90mins development

I wonder how much fuel those hurricane hunters carry? Do you think they'd be able to act on any message to stay out and watch it?

As an aside, that poor little eastern Windward Island is going to take an absolute battering given the convective storms about to pass over it I'm sure! It's like some kind of david and goliath analogy! lol

Edited August 9, 2006 by crimsone

[Somerset Squall]

EDIT: Hi Atmosfear! I've got the image on my veiwer and if you pull right in on it it looks a stage on from that!!!

Indeed, interesting stuff! Certainly developing quickly it seems.

[Paranoid]

That earlier picture seems to have a better structure than Alberto did at his peak. I would have thought it was a tropical storm if i didn't know better. Then again, i don't know better. The system looks like it's heading for the Carribean islands (not sure if they're the Antilles or Windward islands) Not sure if they're going to interfere with any development of Invest 91l.

Anyhoo, when's the next update on this system?

Edited August 9, 2006 by Paranoid

[Gray-Wolf]

I sure hope that mass of cloud on the NW quadrant doesn't wrap around and smother the system! I don't know what the chances of that happening are, but it certainly seems possible to my mind from that image.

If it did wrap back into the system without smothering it though, I'm pretty sure we'd have a ready-made and well structured TS :lol: lol

I wonder how much fuel those hurricane hunters carry? Do you think they'd be able to act on any message to stay out and watch it?

As an aside, that poor little eastern Windward Island is going to take an absolute battering given the convective storms about to pass over it I'm sure! It's like some kind of david and goliath analogy! lol

I was more wondering if it could beef up it's convection on its E. , N.E. side!! :lol: The shadow on the edge of that mass of cloud, where the L.P. centre looks to be, looks like a deep well.......

EDIT: Well recon got there early it would seem (or there really isn't a closed circulation down there..........my abcdefg!!!) The 'Special Statement' is on the NOAA boards but I think they'll need an update... poor Blake/Knabb, should have done the later shift guys!!

Edited August 9, 2006 by Gray-Wolf

[crimsone]

LOL. many would kill me for saying this, so before I do I should mention that I know darned well that it isn't, but that "deep well" you speak of looks to me almost like the eye of an established hurricane! :lol:

You may be right GW, but from seeing where it's been and where it appears to be going, I'm of an opinion that it may not be possible for a similar mass of convection to form spontaneously on the East side due to the velocity at which it's being blown along eastward. That said, you've more experience that I have, so my view probably isn't one that you should put too much stock in compared to your own

(I almost said "sheer speed" instead of velocity, but I didn't want to confuse matters for anybody. lol. I wasn't referring to upper level shear, just a great speed. :lol: )

Edited August 9, 2006 by crimsone