Autumn and Winter

[Somerset Squall]

Have to say I'm baffled by you finding shorts & bare midriffs unpleasent! Well ok perhaps it depends who's providing the show...

Me & everyone I know is loving this extended summer - even my one & only winter fan mate. Since it's not too hot- not too cold, its mostly dry, it's sunny & nights are sleepable but not freezing.

It's certainly making the ever shortening days more bearable that's for sure.

Autumn will come soon and you'll get your 10-12c days (and 5-7c nights) and complain we all will as it'll be too cold/too warm depending on who you talk to!

I have to admit I'm liking this weather too. The humidity is fairly high down here but with temps maxing out at about 21C it doesn't feel too bad. The nights are lovely, 9C last night. Usually I'm hoping for the first signs of cooler weather by now but I certainly wouldn't mind if this continues- maybe even until the beginning of November

The only downfall is the excess amounts of moths and "daddy long legs" around at the moment, it's getting quite annoying!

Edited September 26, 2006 by AtmosFear

[TEITS]

I think it's more like AGW we are paying for. Whilst this will not cause an entirely linear progression to warmth, it's the main reason why I think this will be a very mild winter. Last winter was an example of the effects of AGW: even with all the right synoptics we only ended up with an average winter in most parts. This winter I expect nothing like such favourable synoptics for cold, so a very mild one is in the offing I think.

Glorious day today mind you. Was working outside in shirt sleeves and got sunburnt. Not everything about AGW always feels so bad! I'll be happy to get through to spring with lots of mild weather, but hopefully with plenty of rain to replenish the reservoirs.

Don't forget WIB on the 29th Dec 2005 the Max temp was only -4C in many area's including Peterborough which would of been considered very cold even in the good ol days.

GW may have moved the goalpost's somewhat but not as much as some suggest on here. May I also ask what is your reasoning for a very mild winter and what's the reasoning for unfavorable synoptic's?. Don't take this the wrong way but these past 5 month's you have been expecting endless HP and a quiet atlantic due to your preference of warm weather and it seem's odd now summer is at an end you expect HP to go AWOL. I hope your personal preference isn't clouding your judgement because let's face it neither of us have enough knowledge on LRF's to really make any kind of forecast for this winter.

[West is Best]

So both of you calling a mild/very mild winter???

S

I am Steve! All will be revealed (eventually!). Atlantic domination for the first half, but I'm more unsure about the second half. Still reckon it'll be very mild overall.

[VillagePlank]

Time for an idiot to ask a question (that's me, of course)

If El-Nino (and it's little cousin El-Nina?) modify the NAO to such a degree where we can expect our whether to be either blocked, or easterly, why do the MetO use North Atlantic SST's (in May?) for their winter forecast if we are, statistically speaking, expecting a below average percentage of our weather to actually come from, or travel over, the North Atlantic? Is it therefore the case, the NA SST's are not significant for short-term delivery, but rather affecting the Northern Hemisphere is some other undisclosed paradigm? I rather assumed that the reason May's SST's were measured was because of ocean/atmosphere thermo-coupling latency rates?

Remembering from some distant past that the SST method has a 60% chance of delivering the basics, is it the case, then, that W vs E'ly/blocked is divided by the same percentage? (Do the we'ly components of UK compose of 60% of our weather?)

Edited September 27, 2006 by Wilson

[Bottesford]

So you're saying the synoptics can occur to bring in cold weather and equally cold pools can form in the right place but these two together is the hard bit? By that logic though, these events are unrelated and we've simply been 'unlucky' (or lucky if you don't want it cold!) for them not to coincide. Who's to say that these events are not related? The cold pool develops and actually prevents those synoptics we 'want'? Or maybe the 'correct' synoptics prevent the cold pools forming in the 'right' places? Just a thought...

[BrickFielder]

Time for an idiot to ask a question (that's me, of course)

If El-Nino (and it's little cousin El-Nina?) modify the NAO to such a degree where we can expect our whether to be either blocked, or easterly, why do the MetO use North Atlantic SST's (in May?) for their winter forecast if we are, statistically speaking, expecting a below average percentage of our weather to actually come from, or travel over, the North Atlantic? Is it therefore the case, the NA SST's are not significant for short-term delivery, but rather affecting the Northern Hemisphere is some other undisclosed paradigm? I rather assumed that the reason May's SST's were measured was because of ocean/atmosphere thermo-coupling latency rates?

Remembering from some distant past that the SST method has a 60% chance of delivering the basics, is it the case, then, that W vs E'ly/blocked is divided by the same percentage? (Do the we'ly components of UK compose of 60% of our weather?)

Quite a good question and one you will probably get a number of different answers for.

My take on it, would be that the NAO is only half of a pattern and the real pattern is the AO (Artic oscillation). The NAO is the Atlantic half of the AO and the Pacific half of the AO is substantially affected by strong El-Nino conditions. A very strong pattern in either basin can override the signals in the other basin. In this respect a strong El-Nino is likely to bias the NAO towards the positive (less northern blocking) overiding any SST tripole signal for a negative NAO from the Atlantic.

Uk weather is traditonally Atlantic based, although a number of factors can combine to reduce weather from the Atlantic. I can not say that 60% of our weather is westerly ,but i would not be surprised. Of the reminaing 40% some may be northerlies or southerlies as well as easterlies. Equating easterly with a blocked pattern is a little dangerous as easterlies show high pressure to our north which can be short lived and non blocked. Sustained easterlies have been quite rare untill the last few years and these bring very cold continental air (often dry) over us.

[Dawlish]

Unless someone can prove that such simultaneous occurence is now impossible.

Tamara

I don't think anyone would wish to Snowp. I think you are tilting at an open windmill.

It is just that, with GWUK, the odds on a colder than average winter have lengthened significantly, over the last 25 years. No-one's saying it won't happen, as far as I can see, they are just saying that it is less likely - which it is.

Paul

[The Eagle]

Dawlish I think you & john are picking either of the 2 charts-

John is referring to the Easterly-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...cka20060122.gif

S

Oh yeah, I remember that now. This was the Easterly we were sure would come off. Alas it never did. Hopefully this time round we get a bit of luck

[VillagePlank]

Oh yeah, I remember that now. This was the Easterly we were sure would come off. Alas it never did. Hopefully this time round we get a bit of luck

Luck has nothing to do with it. Aren't you already dancing in the garden to ward of bad synoptics?

[TEITS]

Hi John

Even taking into account the possibility that the same depth of cold isn't around as once was, you are still quite right to say that it was indeed a close call. -15 850 temps would still be capable of delivering ice days and heavy snowfalls.

Any 'loss' of degree of cold is not sufficient (at least yet) to prevent noteworthy cold weather/snow potential to compare very respectably with yesteryear. The warming effects (in the here and now) are being overstated by some and still premature.

:blush:

Tamara

This is exactly it isn't SP we are not expecting another 62/63 or 47 but another 81/87/95/96 is quiet achieveable. I think some need to remember the CET during the last winter, Dec 05 4.4C which is 0.7C below the 71-00 average, Jan 06 4.3 +0.1C, Feb 3.8C -0.4C.

I admit the synoptics since 87 have made a very cold winter less likely but not significantly so as Dawlish suggest's. Beside's this these past 18 month's has seen a change in the synoptic patterns compared to recent year's and this IMO gives hope this winter. I think those who keep banging the GW drum are going to be in for a fall one of these day's because our climate hasn't changed significantly enough to prevent another cold spell like in those year's I mention.

[summer blizzard]

There are some very good points being made here and i agree that we can get both the bone chilling cold and the synoptics...

This is the chart from the February 2005 event which while producing a noteworthy snowy and cold spell in some places, had most people claiming that while we could get the synoptics, we could no longer get the cold source, however we then got this less than a year later...

This chart on the other hand had some people claiming that we could no longer get the synoptics.

As you can see, within the space of a year we had both the synoptics and the cold pool, the too just did not coincide however i see no reason why they cannot.

My other two points are that...

1) i do not think that some people realise the significance of the cold pool last January, that cold pool was not just a cold pool but a record breaking cold pool, Moscow has records dating back 300 years however January 2006 produced the longest spell with maxima colder than -30C on record

2) I appreciate the arguament of people such as West Is Best and Dawlish however i am noticing a disturbing pattern, while we can get a record breaking cold pool, it is gone by the end of February, which surely supports the warmer summer arguament extending into spring and Autumn, if this is the case, then we need the correct synoptics in early winter and not late otherwise we may be doomed to 'baby' events

[kold weather]

I must admit I've got a slight nagging doubt that would agree with West's ideas of a very mild winter and that would be the Scandi high being placed too far east, then instead of those easterlies we are left in a southerly flow from the Med, wouldn't mean a mild winter would be a certainty but it'd increase the chances of that occuring.

One intresting thing to note however is that the jet stream is still very far south on average for the time of year...don't let the recent northerly movement fool you into thinking its mving back north, because its most certainly not and this reecnt northerly movement is only because the hurricanes that have come up from the south. Also the southerly arm of the jet has evidently been stronger then recent years, because the number of tropical cyclones is only around average right now, which may not seem amazing but consider that we are on track for the 2nd quietiest Hurricane seasons for 10 seasons and has been much more like an old fashioned season rather then recent mega years.

[ribster]

This is exactly it isn't SP we are not expecting another 62/63 or 47 but another 81/87/95/96 is quiet achieveable. I think some need to remember the CET during the last winter, Dec 05 4.4C which is 0.7C below the 71-00 average, Jan 06 4.3 +0.1C, Feb 3.8C -0.4C.

87 will do for me, village I grew up in was cut off for 2 weeks. Even the bypass was shut with massive snow drifts.

[chilly milly]

Well going on these posts, I'm really hoping that we can have the cold pool and the synoptics together this year. It seems there is always light at the end of the tunnel and although another '63 is highly questionable, I'm happy to think we could still have another 1981 which is still clearly imprinted on my mind.

[summer blizzard]

Just to ramp things up a little, 1962 was a August anologue in two out of nine teleconnections...

But 1963 was an anologue in three.

2004 is the best anologue at this stage, with six out of nine teleconnection matches.

Ramping aside, the fact that 1962 even shows up as an anologue is encouraging.

[Scorcher]

I'd be delighted to see a record breaking mild winter this year. As I won't be in the UK I don't mind too much if it's a colder winter but I'd still like to see Barletts throughout the winter. One of the reasons I chose to study in Florida for a year was because of the lack of a winter. Does anyone know if there have been many winters that have been well above average temperature-wise with below average rainfall? For me there's no better sight in January than seeing 14C being forecast.

Edited September 27, 2006 by Scorcher

[Snowly does it]

I'd be delighted to see a record breaking mild winter this year. As I won't be in the UK I don't mind too much if it's a colder winter but I'd still like to see Barletts throughout the winter. One of the reasons I chose to study in Florida for a year was because of the lack of a winter. Does anyone know if there have been many winters that have been well above average temperature-wise with below average rainfall? For me there's no better sight in January than seeing 14C being forecast.

Hmmmm, not sure there, the warmer winters tend to be depression dominated from the SW I think...

I don't mind 14c forecasts, as long as they don't come off! :lol:

[Mammatus]

I'd be very happy with a mild winter, lack of frosts and no snow. There's nothing worse than getting up for work in the morning, walking out the front door (or the back) :lol: and shivering excessively losing feeling in every limb, grinding your teeth etc. The thought of cold and snow is vile :o Roll on the mildest winter on record yet with a stagnant Bartlett from Mid November through to the end of March

Mammatus

[Bottesford]

I'd be very happy with a mild winter, lack of frosts and no snow. There's nothing worse than getting up for work in the morning, walking out the front door (or the back) :lol: and shivering excessively losing feeling in every limb, grinding your teeth etc. The thought of cold and snow is vile :o Roll on the mildest winter on record yet with a stagnant Bartlett from Mid November through to the end of March

Mammatus

Think you should jump for cover! hehe

I'd be fine with a mild winter except mild often means dull. You really don't want weeks of not seeing the Sun. I remember a few week or so long periods last winter that were sunless (and cold to boot). Really drags your mood down. Mild & sunny yes- but its fairly unlikely as to be mild you need a S-SWly flow i.e. a damp one.

Another problem of the mild winter is it doesn't kill off the insects making next summer an infestation. I'd rather have mild overall (to keep my bills down/hands warm) with a very cold periods in mid Dec to late Jan. Gimme spring by Feb!

[ribster]

I'd be very happy with a mild winter, lack of frosts and no snow. There's nothing worse than getting up for work in the morning, walking out the front door (or the back) :lol: and shivering excessively losing feeling in every limb, grinding your teeth etc. The thought of cold and snow is vile :o Roll on the mildest winter on record yet with a stagnant Bartlett from Mid November through to the end of March

Mammatus

Dear oh dear, you'd last 5 minutes in the military, surely you are made of sterner stuff?

[Mammatus]

Think you should jump for cover! hehe

I'd be fine with a mild winter except mild often means dull. You really don't want weeks of not seeing the Sun. I remember a few week or so long periods last winter that were sunless (and cold to boot). Really drags your mood down. Mild & sunny yes- but its fairly unlikely as to be mild you need a S-SWly flow i.e. a damp one.

Another problem of the mild winter is it doesn't kill off the insects making next summer an infestation. I'd rather have mild overall (to keep my bills down/hands warm) with a very cold periods in mid Dec to late Jan. Gimme spring by Feb!

Completly agree, I dont mind a cold spell around christmas and in early January due to a slow down in work. But as I have 9 contracts with house builders, the cold effects my business, the guys can't work, it's an awful time on site.

Dear oh dear, you'd last 5 minutes in the military, surely you are made of sterner stuff?

:o If we have a cold, snowy winter, then my business suffers bud. I've done my time working out on site in sub zero temperatures, it's not pleasent my friend

Mammatus

P.s. I love cold and snow, but work commitments come first, and these two weather types are a definate no no :lol:

Edited September 27, 2006 by Mammatus

[skifreak]

If we have a cold, snowy winter, then my business suffers bud. I've done my time working out on site in sub zero temperatures, it's not pleasent my friend

If we dont have a cold snowy winter my business suffers bud.

If we have a mildest on record an entire industry could be down the pan by March...

[Slinky]

I do think that this winter will continue the trend of last years, i believe that we are now in a weather cycle where the "seasons" start becoming seasons again! This winter will be much like last years colder then the "GW even larger teapot" fanatics make out. Over the next few years i predict a cooling trend, this winter will be slightly colder then last years but nothing to go mad about, as to snow and the such, i will leave that to the experts..................lol

[Dawlish]

I do think that this winter will continue the trend of last years, i believe that we are now in a weather cycle where the "seasons" start becoming seasons again! This winter will be much like last years colder then the "GW even larger teapot" fanatics make out. Over the next few years i predict a cooling trend, this winter will be slightly colder then last years but nothing to go mad about, as to snow and the such, i will leave that to the experts..................lol

Slinky, you just can't have a one-year trend! Good odds on my "betting" thread if you think that will come true, though!

[TEITS]

Slinky, you just can't have a one-year trend! Good odds on my "betting" thread if you think that will come true, though! :lol:

Actually your wrong Dawlish and Slinky is correct.

The word trend mean's a general direction in which something is developing or changing. When you consider the last two winter's we have seen a greater frequency of blocking compared to the atlantic driven winter's of previous years. So what Slinky mean's is he believe's last winter's synoptic trends will continue into this winter.