Autumn and Winter

[WBSH]

Does anybody know where the March 12th snowfall threads are kept??????

I'm not too sure, maybe in the "weather reports" section?

I got a measly 0.5mm that month!

WBSH

[Peter Henderson]

In NI we had a hurricane last week (Gordon). I wonder if that has any significance for the seasons ahead ?

[acbrixton]

In NI we had a hurricane last week (Gordon). I wonder if that has any significance for the seasons ahead ?

No you did not; You were badly affected by winds gusting to 70mph associated with a hybrid of ex-tropical storm Gordon and a conventional mid-latitude depression.

Hurricanes are formed over and sustained by seas with SSTs of 26.5c and above and a minimum sustained wind speed of 74mph.

Regards

ACB

[kippure]

Im no expert or amatuer, i just like differant types of weather. What i would like to know from the experts on here is in a nut shell what do they see happening with the weather over the uk up to christmas. Have they spotted something in the data "GFS" eg. That raises there eyebrow, What are your gut feelings.

[Snowyowl9]

Personally, am not particulay bothered if my area were to miss out on such an event because looking at the data and listening to the reports from other people was almost as exiting as the event itself, taking March 12th as an example, while i only got 6cm of snow, listening to the reports from Glasgow and reveiwing my snow depth forecast for them was equally exiting.

Does anybody know where the March 12th snowfall threads are kept??????

No idea,but I`ll show you what I had on March the 12th 2005 instead,I know your referring to this year but I`ll save that for later

-0.7min A dusting that morning which thawed with a high of 6.0c then had very light rain,hail,sleet,snow showers(what a mix)

This should be on the -5 thread I suppose.

Edited September 25, 2006 by Snowyowl9

[stratty]

First signs in FI of cooler weather early October. 8c daytime temps!

[summer blizzard]

I just thought that i would let people know that the preliminary data for January has become available fore my teleconnections forecast, and points to a CET of around 2C, so to sum up my thoughts so far in terms of CET estimates...

December - around 5C

January - around 2C

February - around 1C

It looks as though the even larger teapot may lose the bttle this winter.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I just thought that i would let people know that the preliminary data for January has become available fore my teleconnections forecast, and points to a CET of around 2C, so to sum up my thoughts so far in terms of CET estimates...

December - around 5C

January - around 2C

February - around 1C

It looks as though the even larger teapot may lose the bttle this winter.

SB

Very very bold

BFTP

[Hiya]

I just thought that i would let people know that the preliminary data for January has become available fore my teleconnections forecast, and points to a CET of around 2C, so to sum up my thoughts so far in terms of CET estimates...

December - around 5C

January - around 2C

February - around 1C

It looks as though the even larger teapot may lose the bttle this winter.

indeed very bold. I am very much looking forward to your winter forcast to see the reasoning behind it. If your wrong, there will be a lot of dissapointed people here.

[Dawlish]

I just thought that i would let people know that the preliminary data for January has become available fore my teleconnections forecast, and points to a CET of around 2C, so to sum up my thoughts so far in terms of CET estimates...

December - around 5C

January - around 2C

February - around 1C

It looks as though the even larger teapot may lose the bttle this winter.

Nice one summer! It doesn't actually "look" like anything at this distance, apart from it looks like you are forecasting a cold winter. I do hope the "even larger teapot" doesn't have a mild rebuke in its tail for you, for hoping for something so cold!!

Paul

HI Kippure; my thoughts on the possibilities for the winter are below.

Paul

[Joneseye]

indeed very bold. I am very much looking forward to your winter forcast to see the reasoning behind it. If your wrong, there will be a lot of dissapointed people here.

I am sorry but I just don't get it. Why would there be a lot of dissapointed people if a forecast is wrong from this far out? Surely people would be more dissapointed in how the weather turns out as opposed to how the forecast turns out. (I write this as it is still September and for me far too early to talk about being upset about something over 10 weeks away)

If the CET forecast is right from this far out then I really would take my hat off and bow down to SB. What the CET forecast isn't giving us is any indication of the amount/type of precipitation. Last winter had low enough temperatures just not enough precipitation, this winter could be the same depending on the location of any blocking.

[Hiya]

you take my meaning a little too far.

If he posts thats its gonna be cold, thousands of people on this website who know next to nothing about the weather and only care if its gonna snow will read it and get excited, thus if it is wrong then they will be disspointed.

i don't want a debate, if u disagree leave it at that.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

i don't want a debate, if u disagree leave it at that.

That's kind of what the forum's for though!

[coldfingers]

you take my meaning a little too far.

If he posts thats its gonna be cold, thousands of people on this website who know next to nothing about the weather and only care if its gonna snow will read it and get excited, thus if it is wrong then they will be disspointed.

i don't want a debate, if u disagree leave it at that.

Will it snow in Bognor?

I love cold and snow, I know next to nothing, I am entertaining hopes of snow this winter, but then I always do even when the LRF is for mild. I found the idea of a low CET very interesting but wont get disappointed if it doesn't come off. I promise there will be no recriminations from me.

Anyway it's well known all we get here is sunshine

Edited September 26, 2006 by coldfingers

[TEITS]

I am entertaining hopes of snow this winter, but then I always do even when the LRF is for mild. I found the idea of a low CET very interesting but wont get disappointed if it doesn't come off. I promise there will be no recriminations from me.

I think many of us on here deep down expect another mild disappointment but there is always that slight chance another 78/81/87/95/96 could happen. It is this that keep's us all addicted to the model's throughout the winter month's. I know for a fact come November 1st my excitement start's building

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

I just thought that i would let people know that the preliminary data for January has become available fore my teleconnections forecast, and points to a CET of around 2C, so to sum up my thoughts so far in terms of CET estimates...

December - around 5C

January - around 2C

February - around 1C

It looks as though the even larger teapot may lose the bttle this winter.

2 significant months below CET - I doubt it, there were forecasts like this last year only to go pear shaped, although there is always a possibility of a colder than average winter the likelyhood of a 1 & 2 C CET month in the 'even larger teapot' of the last 10 years is unlikely to put it 'mildly'.

[Joneseye]

you take my meaning a little too far.

If he posts thats its gonna be cold, thousands of people on this website who know next to nothing about the weather and only care if its gonna snow will read it and get excited, thus if it is wrong then they will be disspointed.

i don't want a debate, if u disagree leave it at that.

Firstly, let me make it clear that I am not trying to get on your back.

I would hope that most people that visit a weather site, particularly the forum area, would have enough of an interest/knowledge in weather to know not to get too excited about a prediction this far out. That is the point I am trying to make.

I read a lot more than I post on here, mainly because there are a lot of people with vast knowledge about the weather that is greater than mine (I am not putting myself down here). What I do know is that it is a very complex subject (stating the obvious) and if SB's predictions come true then fair play for predicting at this long range. In the mean time I would take things with a rather large pinch of salt until we are staring down the barrel of a full blown channel low at T - 72 hours..

Edited September 26, 2006 by Joneseye

[shuggee]

Weather Eye this morning discusses the El Nino and the forthcoming winter:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=789345

[Snowly does it]

Weather Eye this morning discusses the El Nino and the forthcoming winter:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=789345

Interesting, although I do not see any talk of February or March in the MetO forecast (certainly not March as it is a spring month!), just 'later winter', and indeed there is no real talk of mild at the onset of winter either, other than by implication.

[The Eagle]

I think many of us on here deep down expect another mild disappointment but there is always that slight chance another 78/81/87/95/96 could happen. It is this that keep's us all addicted to the model's throughout the winter month's. I know for a fact come November 1st my excitement start's building

Or even 2001 which was a good winter too.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Or even 2001 which was a good winter too.

In regards to modern winters 2001 wan't bad but it cannot be related to any of the other mentioned ones!

Edited September 26, 2006 by Timmy H

[The Eagle]

In regards to modern winters 2001 wan't bad but it cannot be related to any of the other mentioned ones!

Well, no, your right but for Western parts it was a fantastic winter!!!

[Snowyowl9]

Well, no, your right but for Western parts it was a fantastic winter!!!

If you include March I`ll agree,that`s when the biggest snowfall of the winter came, but that`s the start of spring,but it all counts to me anyway,it was a great winter for recent years.

I actually recorded the lowest temperature on this night for that month a max/min thermometer then -7c.

Edited September 26, 2006 by Snowyowl9

[coldfingers]

Interesting, although I do not see any talk of February or March in the MetO forecast (certainly not March as it is a spring month!), just 'later winter', and indeed there is no real talk of mild at the onset of winter either, other than by implication.

March may be a Spring month but you would be surprised how often March bring snow showers, they are not unknown in April either.

Also I am not too sure where the term 'even larger teapot' originated. I have more than fifty years of watching winter to my credit and yes this new century has been a bit of a disappointment but don't go away with the idea that last century was without it's warmer spells.

Edited September 26, 2006 by coldfingers

[Snowly does it]

March may be a Spring month but you would be surprised how often March bring snow showers, they are not unknown in April either.

No argument there, March can be very snowy, I was merely saying the MetO winter forcast will cover Dec, Jan and Feb, so I am unsure where the Times gets 'march' from.