Autumn and Winter

[lesta_snow]

lks pretty cold towards the end of winter hopefully they can forecast that far into the future quite acurattly how ever u spell it lol!!

[frozen_north]

I still dont see this winter being as cold as some of the people on this board are making out. Yes it may be cold in relation to a even larger teapot but could turn out to be average by the 1961-1990 average. What will make or break this winter much like everyother winter is the amount of snow we get. It may be cold but what good is that.

[summer blizzard]

I think that people are placing too much weight on the forecasts at this stage, in regards to mine, only December has been verified, January is based on very preliminary data and February is based on pattern matching.

[coldfingers]

Can anyone give me any hope that this prolonged warm spell will go away soon. Temp 25.9C here today and people still walking around in shorts and bare midriffs. Please can it end soon! I have had enough

[ribster]

Can anyone give me any hope that this prolonged warm spell will go away soon. Temp 25.9C here today and people still walking around in shorts and bare midriffs. Please can it end soon! I have had enough

Well we were rather spoilt by the cold extending well in to April this year, so I guess we have to pay for that

I'm sure it will turn cold soon enough, still only September yet.

[coldfingers]

Well we were rather spoilt by the cold extending well in to April this year, so I guess we have to pay for that

I'm sure it will turn cold soon enough, still only September yet.

Yeh you're right. Overeager It's just that I remember one year on Oct 1 when the frost persisted until lunchtime and that was in the new Forest and you don't get much further South.

Edited September 26, 2006 by coldfingers

[Dawlish]

Can anyone give me any hope that this prolonged warm spell will go away soon. Temp 25.9C here today and people still walking around in shorts and bare midriffs. Please can it end soon! I have had enough

If you recorded 25.9C, ribster, maybe you need to check your recording equipment! It is highly unlikely it was quite that warm. The Met office has the top temp today as 22C at Great Malvern. I can't think you were nearly 3C above that! Just think; it was cooler than you thought and you didn't even know it! We had about 21C down here. Long may it last. Winter will come, with short, damp days, soon enough. Enjoy the unexpected Autumn sunshine and warmth!

Paul

[West is Best]

Well we were rather spoilt by the cold extending well in to April this year, so I guess we have to pay for that

I think it's more like AGW we are paying for. Whilst this will not cause an entirely linear progression to warmth, it's the main reason why I think this will be a very mild winter. Last winter was an example of the effects of AGW: even with all the right synoptics we only ended up with an average winter in most parts. This winter I expect nothing like such favourable synoptics for cold, so a very mild one is in the offing I think.

Glorious day today mind you. Was working outside in shirt sleeves and got sunburnt. Not everything about AGW always feels so bad! I'll be happy to get through to spring with lots of mild weather, but hopefully with plenty of rain to replenish the reservoirs.

[Les Penniston]

August was only a few weeks ago so no suprise about the warm weather still around.

[Dawlish]

I think it's more like AGW we are paying for. Whilst this will not cause an entirely linear progression to warmth, it's the main reason why I think this will be a very mild winter. Last winter was an example of the effects of AGW: even with all the right synoptics we only ended up with an average winter in most parts. This winter I expect nothing like such favourable synoptics for cold, so a very mild one is in the offing I think.

Glorious day today mind you. Was working outside in shirt sleeves and got sunburnt. Not everything about AGW always feels so bad! I'll be happy to get through to spring with lots of mild weather, but hopefully with plenty of rain to replenish the reservoirs.

Evening West,

I agree with everything you say, but only 1/3 on the "A" out of AGW!

Paul

[coldfingers]

If you recorded 25.9C, ribster, maybe you need to check your recording equipment! It is highly unlikely it was quite that warm. The Met office has the top temp today as 22C at Great Malvern. I can't think you were nearly 3C above that! Just think; it was cooler than you thought and you didn't even know it! We had about 21C down here. Long may it last. Winter will come, with short, damp days, soon enough. Enjoy the unexpected Autumn sunshine and warmth!

Paul

Actually it was me coldfingers that recorded that temp in my garden. We had a sweltering sunny day all day long and my son fishing on the pier got sunburnt. It was recorded with a cheap (Lidl) weather station but the two min/max thermometers on both sides of the shed recorded the same temp. Perhaps it could be the wood of the shed warming in the sun and giving a false reading but one side of the shed was in the shade all day and didn't feel warm. Sunday the local TV reckoned Bognor was the warmest in the country but I was in Southampton

[Dawlish]

Actually it was me coldfingers that recorded that temp in my garden. We had a sweltering sunny day all day long and my son fishing on the pier got sunburnt. It was recorded with a cheap (Lidl) weather station but the two min/max thermometers on both sides of the shed recorded the same temp. Perhaps it could be the wood of the shed warming in the sun and giving a false reading but one side of the shed was in the shade all day and didn't feel warm. Sunday the local TV reckoned Bognor was the warmest in the country but I was in Southampton

Sorry Coldfingers. Didn't read the poster! Could be what you say, A Stevenson screen would always be useful. Not much more above 21C recorded in the Met Office sites on the South coast, but it really was a terrific day!

Paul

[Bottesford]

Can anyone give me any hope that this prolonged warm spell will go away soon. Temp 25.9C here today and people still walking around in shorts and bare midriffs. Please can it end soon! I have had enough

Have to say I'm baffled by you finding shorts & bare midriffs unpleasent! Well ok perhaps it depends who's providing the show...

Me & everyone I know is loving this extended summer - even my one & only winter fan mate. Since it's not too hot- not too cold, its mostly dry, it's sunny & nights are sleepable but not freezing.

It's certainly making the ever shortening days more bearable that's for sure.

Autumn will come soon and you'll get your 10-12c days (and 5-7c nights) and complain we all will as it'll be too cold/too warm depending on who you talk to!

[SMU]

Evening West,

I agree with everything you say, but only 1/3 on the "A" out of AGW!

Paul

WIB

Last winter was an example of the effects of AGW: even with all the right synoptics we only ended up with an average winter in most parts. This winter I expect nothing like such favourable synoptics for cold, so a very mild one is in the offing I think.

Hum slightly wide of the mark there- as there was nothing to spectacular through last winter so 'all the right synoptics' is a bit of a sweeping statement-

If we had all the right synoptics then it would have certainly been a hell of a lot colder-

Case in point: the true bitter air ( sub -15 850's) never quite make it-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...cka20060122.gif

Interestingly the best chart arrived on the last day of winter-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...cka20060228.gif

So both of you calling a mild/very mild winter???

S

Edited September 26, 2006 by Steve Murr

[coldfingers]

Sorry Coldfingers. Didn't read the poster! Could be what you say, A Stevenson screen would always be useful. Not much more above 21C recorded in the Met Office sites on the South coast, but it really was a terrific day!

Paul

Anyone know how to make one? can't afford a real one.

[Snowyowl9]

Can anyone give me any hope that this prolonged warm spell will go away soon. Temp 25.9C here today and people still walking around in shorts and bare midriffs. Please can it end soon! I have had enough

It`ll come as a shock to the system when it does arrive as we`ve been so use to warm days,as it takes a while for us to adjust to the colder winds this time of year, when they arrive in october.

It`ll cool down soon.

[Ross B]

Anyone know how to make one? can't afford a real one.

Try here.

[dapick2002]

hi everyone, just wondering if any of you can shed a bit of light on something for me...i have read on met offices, and in the times today that they are changing their winter forecast from a predicted ild one, to an average one with it getting colder from february...the cause being "el nino".....could someone please explain to me what el nino is...it would be much appreciated! cheers.

[SMU]

hi everyone, just wondering if any of you can shed a bit of light on something for me...i have read on met offices, and in the times today that they are changing their winter forecast from a predicted ild one, to an average one with it getting colder from february...the cause being "el nino".....could someone please explain to me what el nino is...it would be much appreciated! cheers.

Plenty of bedtime reading..........

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o

In terms of relating this to a Winter forecast the severity of El nino or La nina ( the opposite) need to be established, ranging from weak > moderate> Intense All 3 have varying degrees of effect on the Atmospheric circulation patterns- with a big infleunce over the NAO- we DONT want an intense/Strong El nino- these are strongly correlated with +NAO Years- However weak & even moderate are better from our perspective-

As you can see the current El Nino isnt nearly as bad as the historic events gone by-

S

Edited September 26, 2006 by Steve Murr

[John Cox]

Hum slightly wide of the mark there- as there was nothing to spectacular through last winter so 'all the right synoptics' is a bit of a sweeping statement-

If we had all the right synoptics then it would have certainly been a hell of a lot colder-

Case in point: the true bitter air ( sub -15 850's) never quite make it-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...cka20060122.gif

Interestingly the best chart arrived on the last day of winter-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...cka20060228.gif

So both of you calling a mild/very mild winter???

S

Hi Steve,

I remember that chart well.

It was a close call , so near and yet so far.

One of these near years, we (especially you in the SE of the UK) would not know what would hit us.

Just bought a camcorder today in preperation for the snow this winter.

Edited September 26, 2006 by John Cox

[dapick2002]

Plenty of bedtime reading..........

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o

S

thanks!

[SMU]

Hi Steve,

I remember that chart well.

It was a close call , so near and yet so far.

One of these near years, we (especially you in the SE of the UK) would not know what would hit us.

Just bought a camcorder today in preperation for the snow this winter.

Lets hope it gets plenty of use.......... ( For snow purposes that is........)

S

[Dawlish]

Hi Steve,

I remember that chart well.

It was a close call , so near and yet so far.

One of these near years, we (especially you in the SE of the UK) would not know what would hit us.

Just bought a camcorder today in preperation for the snow this winter.

It wasn't a "close call" John, that chart actually happened. The trouble is, that with GWUK, Northerlies are just not what they used to be. My argument is that, 30 years ago, that chart would have produced very different weather. Even on the 28th Feb, that would not have been described as "so near and yet so far" and snow would have been widespread. It happened John; that is a real chart - it just didn't deliver what the cold-hopers would have liked it to. It didn't deliver, because our climate has changed and the probabilities of that chart delivering what you and many others, would hope for, has diminished.

Paul

Edited September 26, 2006 by Dawlish

[Polar Continental]

Anyone know how to make one? can't afford a real one.

Hi CF,

There you go mate, if i can do it, you can i give a more a bit more detail further down in that thread.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...st&p=783735

Regards

Paul

[SMU]

It wasn't a "close call" John, that chart actually happened. The trouble is, that with GWUK, Northerlies are just not what they used to be. My argument is that, 30 years ago, that chart would have produced very different weather. Even on the 28th Feb, that would not have been described as "so near and yet so far" and snow would have been widespread. It happened John; that is a real chart - it just didn't deliver what the cold-hopers would have liked it to. It didn't deliver, because our climate has changed and the probabilities of that chart delivering what you and many others, would hope for, has diminished.

Paul

Dawlish I think you & john are picking either of the 2 charts-

John is referring to the Easterly-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...cka20060122.gif

Where as I think your referring to the Northerly-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2006/...cka20060228.gif

If we cast our minds back to the Start of this March some areas of scotland recorded over 30cms of snow- it was also the Coldest March for 10 years & the latest date 15C had been recorded for 26 Years.....

March. Cold and wet. Northerly winds in the first week, prolonged easterlies in the middle, but a mild end with southerly winds in the final week brought the average temperature. A cold start with snow showers in the east. The minimum at Altnaharra on the 2nd was -16.4C. Several places remained beneath freezing for more than 24 hours in the first four days and midmonth. The maximum at Fylingdales (North Yorks.) on the 4th was only -1.3C. More heavy snow in central Scotland on the 11th and 12th. The winds turned more SW and it became more mild from the 24th. The highest temperature of the month was 17.8C on the 25th. Indeed, this was the first time 15C was exceeded this year - the latest date this has happened since 1980. The final week was particularly wet: 240 mm of rain fell at Capel Curig in the final week of the month alone. It was quite dull in the north. The CET was the coldest since 1996.

Britweather years........

We do have to make a distinction between the consequences in terms of Temps from GW & the consequences on Synoptics from GW-

Both arguments had good weighting up until 2 years ago- however the arguement for GW= even larger teapot = no Northerly blocking is beginning to crumble- however the last 2 winters could just be anomalies-

As for GW= Slightly warmer CET's Availble especially in Winter- Yes I agree the goalposts have moved especially as the Pole is warming at a rate significantly quickler than locales closer to the equator- & the depth of the cold available looks to be weaker than those winters of Yesteryear-

S

Edited September 26, 2006 by Steve Murr