Autumn and Winter

[Dawlish]

Actually your wrong Dawlish and Slinky is correct.

The word trend mean's a general direction in which something is developing or changing. When you consider the last two winter's we have seen a greater frequency of blocking compared to the atlantic driven winter's of previous years. So what Slinky mean's is he believe's last winter's synoptic trends will continue into this winter.

I suppose you could read it like that Eye. It could be a the missing possessive apostrophe that's got me thinking that Slinky meant last year's trend and not the last years' trend. Anyway, a two year trend doesn't really mean anything whatsoever either! :lol: There's a lot of straw-grasping ging on with this so-called trend!

Paul

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1940 The coldest month of any kind since 1895 (-1.4C CET), and eventually he second coldest January of the century (after 1963). On the 17th, the Thames was frozen over for the first time since 1880. The morning of the 21st gave the lowest temperature of the month: -23C was recorded at Rhayader (Wales), with many places continuously well beneath freezing (e.g. only -4C maximum at Boscombe Down, Wilts.). There were heavy snowfalls in Scotland, with many places cut off. Most remarkably, there was a great snow and Ice Storm during the 27-30th, peaking on the 28th, but continuing in parts into February. Mild air approaching behind warm fronts from the SW met the cold easterly all the way from Russia. There was heavy snow over the north; four feet of snow in Sheffield on the 26th, and 10' drifts reported in Bolton on the 29th. Further south the lower air was warming up and was too warm for snow, but the rain froze as it fell, coating everything with a thick layer of glaze. The effects of the freezing rain was one of the most extreme weather events of the century. The south was particularly badly affected. Everything was coated in a thick layer of ice: phone wires 1.5 mm thick were coated with a 300mm diameter sheath of ice - up to 15 times their weight. Many large tree trunks and power lines were brought down. The area affected by the glaze reached from Kent to Exmoor and the Cotswolds, and from Sussex to Cambridgeshire and the north Midlands. It was a week before all the ice thawed; some places had snow on top of the glaze, with both remaining until the 4th February. Heavy snow and a violent gale swept the southwest.

1941 Another very cold (0.5C CET), easterly War January - the third coldest January of the century. There were some severe frosts, especially in the north. The maximum at Eskdalemuir on the 4th was only -9C, then the minimum at Houghall (Durham) on the 5th was -20C. There was much snow midmonth: 40 cm lay at Birmingham on the 20th. Thaw and fog further south, as the snow moved into Scotland: 50 cm at Balmoral on the 22nd. Two consecutive nights of -17C at Eskdalemuir. It was also a very dull month, with only about 1 hour sunshine a day on average in the southeast.

1939 CET Jan 4.2, and Feb 5.6

1940 CET Jan -1.4, and Feb 2.6

1941 CET Jan 0.5, Feb 3.5

1942 CET Jan 0.9, Feb 0.1

Some may ask why I have posted the above. The reason is that these winters occurred when the arctic was at its warmest and WARMER than now with an equally if not steeper rise to warmth...indeed it rose from a much colder position than the starting point of the early 70s. The claim that the cold sources do not exist and that AGW is preventing the UK from getting cold is quite....well not supported shall I say. Indeed the synoptics over last 15 years plus have been rather unfavourable to say the least. Record cold in Europe last winter....if the draw stays stable and long enough without a doubt the bitter cold will arrive...note WILL :lol:

This winter...77/78 temps for me.

Paul no straw clutching just observation that a change has been noted since Feb 05. Whether it continues is another matter but only time will tell on that one.

BFTP

Edited September 28, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Dawlish]

1940 The coldest month of any kind since 1895 (-1.4C CET), and eventually he second coldest January of the century (after 1963). On the 17th, the Thames was frozen over for the first time since 1880. The morning of the 21st gave the lowest temperature of the month: -23C was recorded at Rhayader (Wales), with many places continuously well beneath freezing (e.g. only -4C maximum at Boscombe Down, Wilts.). There were heavy snowfalls in Scotland, with many places cut off. Most remarkably, there was a great snow and Ice Storm during the 27-30th, peaking on the 28th, but continuing in parts into February. Mild air approaching behind warm fronts from the SW met the cold easterly all the way from Russia. There was heavy snow over the north; four feet of snow in Sheffield on the 26th, and 10' drifts reported in Bolton on the 29th. Further south the lower air was warming up and was too warm for snow, but the rain froze as it fell, coating everything with a thick layer of glaze. The effects of the freezing rain was one of the most extreme weather events of the century. The south was particularly badly affected. Everything was coated in a thick layer of ice: phone wires 1.5 mm thick were coated with a 300mm diameter sheath of ice - up to 15 times their weight. Many large tree trunks and power lines were brought down. The area affected by the glaze reached from Kent to Exmoor and the Cotswolds, and from Sussex to Cambridgeshire and the north Midlands. It was a week before all the ice thawed; some places had snow on top of the glaze, with both remaining until the 4th February. Heavy snow and a violent gale swept the southwest.

1941 Another very cold (0.5C CET), easterly War January - the third coldest January of the century. There were some severe frosts, especially in the north. The maximum at Eskdalemuir on the 4th was only -9C, then the minimum at Houghall (Durham) on the 5th was -20C. There was much snow midmonth: 40 cm lay at Birmingham on the 20th. Thaw and fog further south, as the snow moved into Scotland: 50 cm at Balmoral on the 22nd. Two consecutive nights of -17C at Eskdalemuir. It was also a very dull month, with only about 1 hour sunshine a day on average in the southeast.

1939 CET Jan 4.2, and Feb 5.6

1940 CET Jan -1.4, and Feb 2.6

1941 CET Jan 0.5, Feb 3.5

1942 CET Jan 0.9, Feb 0.1

Some may ask why I have posted the above. The reason is that these winters occurred when the arctic was at its warmest and WARMER than now with an equally if not steeper rise to warmth...indeed it rose from a much colder position than the starting point of the early 70s. The claim that the cold sources do not exist and that AGW is preventing the UK from getting cold is quite....well not supported shall I say. Indeed the synoptics over last 15 years plus have been rather unfavourable to say the least. Record cold in Europe last winter....if the draw stays stable and long enough without a doubt the bitter cold will arrive...note WILL :lol:

This winter...77/78 temps for me.

Paul no straw clutching just observation that a change has been noted since Feb 05. Whether it continues is another matter but only time will tell on that one.

BFTP

I know and I respect your research and knowledge on this BFTP. You've said it before and I wouldn't contradict it. I accept all your figures and your observations. It makes very interesting reading. I don't have any idea, why those cold winters came at a time of a warmer Arctic and, like I've just said, on another thread, you cannot discount natural cycles (if that was, indeed, the cause) from the possibe causes of GW. All I can say is that now, with excellent, long-term (50 years long enough??) evidence, we have much-reduced summer Arctic ice at the same time as a verifiable (50 years?) Global Warming trend. I feel that coincidence is just too much to be produced by any other cause and it is therefore much more likely that the Arctic melting and the 25 year warming of the UK climate will continue - at the expense of the present likelihood of colder than average winters in the UK abou a 1 in 5 chance, in any one year, in my opinion.

Paul

Edited September 28, 2006 by Dawlish

[VillagePlank]

I agree that what you see is indeed possible; but the weight of (recent) evidence shows that the expectation of snow recedes dramatically as we stroll through the winter months - usually at an all time low when we're all nursing our New Year hangover. We can all go back to the past and say 'Look this has happened, before' but then that's an arbitrary trick designed to foreclose the less urrmm aware; as far as I know, and I admit that that's very little, I can find littel evidence that analagous forecasting actually produces significant results

I can go back 10k years and show the world how cold it can be, I can go back 4.5billion years and show a world that exists many times the level of boiling water. The argument, of course, is that there were very specific circumstances of why the climate was that way inclined in the periods mentioned (ice age, and creation of Earth) I agree that these are somewhat extreme examples, but if you wish to tackle that then you must be prepared to tell me what the boundaries to the norms for analogy actually are. ie exactly how far back am I allowed to go to present an analogy?

If you accept the notion that very specific events can cause exaggerated climatic changes (hey - I'm being politically aware, here!) then why is it so difficult to accept that there might be a forcing that we, as a species, have induced, whether or not it is temporary in nature.

As for my opinion of the weather this winter? I'm working on a method and hope to publish it here by the end of October

Edited September 28, 2006 by Wilson

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As for my opinion of the weather this winter? I'm working on a method and hope to publish it here by the end of October

Wilson

Looking forward to that. Sorry to cut off the rest but my position is known and I know others too and I am now getting into awaiting/looking forward to forecasts :lol: Not highlighting your post but as you added the last sentence that has grabbed me

BFTP

[Big Bear]

1940 The coldest month of any kind since 1895.......................

..................ics over last 15 years plus have been rather unfavourable to say the least. Record cold in Europe last winter....if the draw stays stable and long enough without a doubt the bitter cold will arrive...note WILL :lol:

This winter...77/78 temps for me.

Paul no straw clutching just observation that a change has been noted since Feb 05. Whether it continues is another matter but only time will tell on that one.

BFTP

in light of this great post, when was the last 15 year (or similar) mild run of years?

This will help me determine whether a cold winter is due soon and also aid in my winter LRF this year.

Thanks

1940 The coldest month of any kind since 1895.......................

..................ics over last 15 years plus have been rather unfavourable to say the least. Record cold in Europe last winter....if the draw stays stable and long enough without a doubt the bitter cold will arrive...note WILL

This winter...77/78 temps for me.

Paul no straw clutching just observation that a change has been noted since Feb 05. Whether it continues is another matter but only time will tell on that one.

BFTP

in light of this great post, when was the last 15 year (or similar) mild run of years?

This will help me determine whether a cold winter is due soon and also aid in my winter LRF this year.

Thanks

[Dawlish]

in light of this great post, when was the last 15 year (or similar) mild run of years?

This will help me determine whether a cold winter is due soon and also aid in my winter LRF this year.

Thanks :lol:

in light of this great post, when was the last 15 year (or similar) mild run of years?

This will help me determine whether a cold winter is due soon and also aid in my winter LRF this year.

Thanks

In the 367 years of the hadley series, BB, there has never been anything like the last 15 years. The closest was a run of 15 years in the late 1930s to 1940s, where 5 years were above 10C and 5 years above 9C, but the average temp is, really, nothing like as high as the last 15.

Does that help your judgement?

Paul

[Optimus Prime]

The average 6 year period for 2000-2005 is 10.3c

Probably the second warmest period is 1945-1950 where the average temperature was 9.88c.

That's only a difference of 0.42c....

[SMU]

A first & a nice chart to see-

The WHOLE of the uk on the northern side of the 552 Line........

A definate cool down next week- a few Sub zero temps springing up on the overnight charts-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1384.gif

Be nice to feel a nip in the air.........

S

[lesta_snow]

i crnt w8 2 feel the cold air hit my fce as i walk out the door!!! will be next week by the look of the chartz

[Bottesford]

Have to say it will be nice to feel a nip in the air. I do like that first sample of a cold night in Oct/Nov... Altho I'm loving these nice warm September days. Another 20.7C max here again today.

[kold weather]

Intresting chart there Steve, I can't help but keep noticing the trend for LP's to dive SE in the models from 120hrs onwards. Certainly a difference from recent years which had on average a jet stream that was to our north and heading ENE, instead there seems to be a certain split point where Lp's are splitting with the southern cell diving Se. Far too early to tell if this will continue into the winter but it might not be a bad pattern to start getting into, even if at first the temps don't really respond.

Certainly looking at the possible first frost of the year if the feed from behind that Lp at 144hrs is strong enough, though I don't think it'll have enough bite to get a frost past northern England mind you.

[Snowyowl9]

1940 The coldest month of any kind since 1895 (-1.4C CET), and eventually he second coldest January of the century (after 1963). On the 17th, the Thames was frozen over for the first time since 1880.

Indeed the synoptics over last 15 years plus have been rather unfavourable to say the least. Record cold in Europe last winter....if the draw stays stable and long enough without a doubt the bitter cold will arrive...note WILL

This winter...77/78 temps for me.

Paul no straw clutching just observation that a change has been noted since Feb 05. Whether it continues is another matter but only time will tell on that one.

BFTP

That sounds like a winter to look forward too :blink:

The only thing I remember about 1978 winter was a freezing rain event,roads were treacherous all that day,but snow was part every winter when I was a kid.

Of course there was the great SW blizzard...How far north did that come as it wouldn`t of effected here quite would it??

[Bottesford]

This time last year:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220050928.gif

Significantly more cold pooling then compared to today:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn062.png

This year is more like:

2004:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220040928.gif

2001:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220010928.gif

Not sure what bearing it'll have or even if there's any corelation with the rest of autumn/winter however...

[summer blizzard]

Yes, while we got a head start, cold pooling is fairly absent although it should be noted that the cold pool covers a greater are this year, it is also no suprise that we are on par with 2004, of nine August anologues, 2004 featured in five of them.

[kold weather]

Remember we've just had 3 ex-hurricanes pump lots of heat northwards from the tropics, while last year did have this as well the period of time you've picked out just so happens to be about 10 days after the last of those ex-hurricanes got into the jet...in other words the cool pooling was allowed to re-build in that time...you probably won't be able to compare like you are now for a good few weeks till we lose those tropical cyclones simply because TC's come up at different times, last year it was early September, this year its mid-late September.

This was what the same upper air temps wer elike when there was a similar set-up last year and note how much warmer the Greenland area is:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2005/...00220050916.png

Yes it is earlier in the month but that probably only accounts for 1-2C difference in upper air temps as we are only just starting to get into true Autumn.

(ps, a large reason why we had a head start this year was the lack of tropical cyclones in august...no heat was being pumped northwards so the cold could just keep building until heat from the south came up with the new wave of tropical cyclones.)

Edited September 28, 2006 by kold weather

[summer blizzard]

Yes, there were quite a few factors which contributed to the early buildup of cold which was unrivaled by any of the last six years, aside from no warm air being pumped north, we also had increased planetory albeado due to higher than average cloud cover and the late spring encouraging an earlier cold pool.

[Snowyowl9]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00219810928.gif

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn062.png

Spot many differences.

I`ll leave you decide.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Great to have kept an eye on the threads through the summer and good to be back as Autumn sets in too !Anyway,October is my least favourite month,getting too late for sustained heat and a tad too early for sustained cold.Nothing beats a cold clear November afternoon as the sun starts to drop against the background of bare trees,heralding the onset of my fav season.......Winter!!!!!!

[frozen_north]

I cant believe this, infact I can. Its only September and the charts happen to show some cold weather (well Average Autumn weather) and people are acting like its winter and its going to snow. Personally I cant wait for Autumn to set in but winter is still a bit away yet. Lets not get ahead of ourselves.

Edited September 28, 2006 by frozen_north

[lesta_snow]

lol ppl r thinking getting over excited there will probly only be a frost if that i do love winter but i think its a bit erly for it 2 snow

what does hpa mean ?? im new to this thing

[frozen_north]

lol ppl r thinking getting over excited there will probly only be a frost if that i do love winter but i think its a bit erly for it 2 snow

what does hpa mean ?? im new to this thing

what does hpa mean, it stands for hectopascals. Well put simply it is the pressure at which the charts are modelled at. At the surface the pressure is usually round about 1000hpa. So I presume you are talking about where it says 500hpa. Well 500hpa is around half way up the troposphere at about 18,000ft.

[lesta_snow]

what does hpa mean, it stands for hectopascals. Well put simply it is the pressure at which the charts are modelled at. At the surface the pressure is usually round about 1000hpa. So I presume you are talking about where it says 500hpa. Well 500hpa is around half way up the troposphere at about 18,000ft.

thx dude

[lesta_snow]

this isnt much to do with this disscution but ...

look at the metoffice forecast for the midlands apparently its going to be fairy cloudy

Friday

Bright spells but often fairy cloudy with showers, some heavy and thundery. Maximum temperature 19 deg C (66 deg F).

just thought i might say no one else is doing much lol oj

edited by tuggy ... watch the text peak please

[Ross B]

Lesta, can you talk in english and not text language please

The oldies cant understand it :blink: