Autumn and Winter

[TEITS]

Those charts not only show how different the synoptics generally are in the 'even larger teapot', but also show the marked difference of temperatures in the Arctic. The 16th February 1979 chart shows 850hPa temperatures in the Arctic circle below -25°C over a huge area:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00219790216.gif

Compare that to charts we get these days and it shows a marked difference:

2006: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220060216.gif

2005: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220050216.gif

2004: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220040216.gif

2003: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220030216.gif

2002: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220020216.gif

2001: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00220010216.gif

Now obviously this is just one day during an entire winter, but the absence of pinks and purples compared to 'older' charts only makes the likelihood of the UK getting a proper cold and snowy spell all the less. If an airmass at the source is 5°C warmer, then after moderation it will be 5°C warmer over the UK aswell. Such differences in temperatures can make the difference between rain and snow in some cases. The big question though is whether a warmer Arctic is a result of synoptics pumping warmer air up there, or whether the airmass temperatures are a result of a warming world, which in turn drives these synoptics.

Hang on though PIT if you going to post archive charts with recent one's then you have to post like with like.

Look at the 500hpa link's below for 79/05 on 16th Feb.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120050216.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119790216.gif

Completely different synoptics and I bet if I looked at the archive chart's I could find simliar 850 temps to those of recent years. I hate the term even larger teapot because to me if we get the combination of right synoptics with cold pooling then winter's of the past can still occur. Last winter was a good example because Russia had a spell of intense cold and if synoptics could of bought that cold pooling our way then a big freeze would of occured. Too many people just assume that if an E,ly come's our way then ice day's are a certainity and if they don't then GW is to blame without looking at the larger picture. The synoptics over Europe are equally important as the synoptics that bring our cold spells. For example if Europe had experienced a spell of SW,lys and then we have an E,ly this isn't going to be as cold than if Europe had experienced a spell of N,lys. This is why I never understand why people get excited at cold pooling occuring over Europe in November because being a continent the different airmasses can bring an abrupt change in temperature and this can swing very quickly from mild to very cold. The problem recently is whenever we have had an E,ly the conditions in Europe weren't ideal for a very cold spell due to the synoptics prior to our E,ly. Let's hope this winter we can get the combination of cold pooling and then the synoptics.

Just remembered that last Dec we had a max temp of only -4C which would of been classed as very cold in even the good ol days.

[kold weather]

You really can't talk too much about cold pools in September and October as they can be very fickle indeed, because things such as teleconnections changign and also forced changes like tropical cycloes tends to have the ability to destroy a cold pool in the matter of a week.

As for 1979 that winter did appear very intresting as Mr.Data says it was very wet as well. Like March 1947 it was dominanted by the jet stream being very close to the UK but usually just to the south of the UK. Also that huge cold pool over the Artic did probably also help to increase the thermal gradiants and push the jet further south then normal. I'd be intrested to see where the jet sat on average through that winter, could well have been one of the furtherest southerly jet winter in the 20th century.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I think that the Jan 1987 / Feb 1991 easterlies were so cold because high pressure had developed over Scandy a week earlier and pulled some exceptionally cold air out of Russia. The Feb 2005 easterly still saw day temps above freezing as if you look at the synoptics that led to it, air of a cold source never flowed across eastern Europe before the easterlies set in. An Atlantic High quickly toppled over Scandy and a low pressure sank south so there was no build up of cold air over Europe. I also believe that the synoptics for Feb 1986 were set in late January but the easterly winds were not especially cold (day temps above freezing) until around the 5th / 6th Feb as it was then before intense cold had dug in over Europe.

[kold weather]

The thing with the 1987 set-up is that we pulled in some very cold air, in fact the HP postion and previous movement was very nearly perfect for bringing in the coldest air possible, i'd venture a guess and say we couldn't get any colder air at 850hpa down to this part of the world, i'd say 1987 was the bottom limit unless you get another mini-ice age.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119870108.gif

It stalled over eastern Russia and picked up some very cold air around its circulation then moved WSW dragging all that super cold air that pooled with it over E.Russia.

[lesta_snow]

looks like its going to be very foggy tonight !! :unsure: nice start to autumn

[Hodgheg]

all this talk of cold winters gone by makes me wish i was alive to see them

i wish the gulfstream would slow down just enough to make our winters as cold as they used to be.

lets all face it this winter will probably be a horrible warm one with us all hopeing that a cold spell will come soon but before you know it spring on its way. :unsure:

Edited September 15, 2006 by john2006

[Snowly does it]

all this talk off cold winters gone by makes me wish i was alive to see them

i wish the gulfstream would slow down just enough to make our winters as cold as they used to.

lets all face it this winter will probably be a horrible warm one with us all hopeing that a cold spell will come soon but before you know it spring on its way. :unsure:

The gulfstream slowing down/stopping would bring economic ruin and death on a wide scale to this poorly prepared little island in all likelihood, and to be fair, depending on the severity would bring winters totally unlike anyone has ever expereinced here.

I would prefer the occasional blistering winter and in the others, come what may with the occasional snow for fun and games.

Its getting close to the time that I will summon up the eyes of newt and make my preliminary old wives forecast. Looking...... confusing and straw clutchy at the moment!

[Polar Continental]

The thing with the 1987 set-up is that we pulled in some very cold air, in fact the HP postion and previous movement was very nearly perfect for bringing in the coldest air possible, i'd venture a guess and say we couldn't get any colder air at 850hpa down to this part of the world, i'd say 1987 was the bottom limit unless you get another mini-ice age.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119870108.gif

It stalled over eastern Russia and picked up some very cold air around its circulation then moved WSW dragging all that super cold air that pooled with it over E.Russia.

Yes indeed kold, and all i need is the slightest excuse to link this amazing chart which soon followed. :unsure:

Paul

[Snowyowl9]

Yes indeed kold, and all i need is the slightest excuse to link this amazing chart which soon followed. :unsure:

Paul

Nice one paul :blink: :lol:

That`s the ultimate one.

S9

[Polar Continental]

Nice one paul :blink: :lol:

That`s the ultimate one.

S9

Hi Snowyowl,

Yes I can remember that day so well, almost 20 years ago now, unfortunately I had to go to work, but it became so cold in the brewery where I work, the beer froze solid in the barrels which were stored outside, production also had to stop because the road tankers became stranded as the diesel froze solid in the tanks.

The maximum temperature that amazing day didn’t get any higher than –8c with a near gale force easterly wind, it was incredible. :unsure:

Shortly afterwards around the weekend I took my nephew who was only 4, sledging on our nearby hills, he still remembers to this day me jumping into a huge drift which came up to my neck.

If only..... That was the last time he remembers seeing real snow.

Regards

Paul

Edited September 15, 2006 by Paul Carfoot

[andy_leics22]

Tell you what, seeing that 1987 chart has made me remember that famous chart again! i wasn't born in 1987 but i remember seeing posts of that chart last winter and the winter before and boy is that the daddy of all easterlys!!!!!! i dont think we will ever see one like that again, i live in hope though, if we did i would make the most of it :unsure:

[nanu]

Actually we had a repeat down here in 91 but not as cold.. but i remember it snowing all day tho :unsure: .. cant remember the actuall date :blink:

But the actual dates that we all want it to snow on is xmas eve and xmas day, for me that would just bring a huge sparkle into xmas :lol:

Edited September 16, 2006 by nanu

[Dawlish]

Actually we had a repeat down here in 91 but not as cold.. but i remember it snowing all day tho :unsure: .. cant remember the actuall date :blink:

But the actual dates that we all want it to snow on is xmas eve and xmas day, for me that would just bring a huge sparkle into xmas :lol:

Last year, nanu, in Dawlish, it did exactly that. The ONLY snowball depth snow of the winter, here (about 1/2"), fell at precisely 3.00pm, for 30 minutes, in the middle of Christmas lunch! Of course we all abandoned lunch, went out, frolicking in the snow for half an hour and building silly, 5" high, snowmen on the cars and then microwaved the remains of our lunch! Like you say, magical sparkle; memorable.

The other plus was that I was busily winning £50 at the same time, as I'd bet on no snow in Birmingham, on the same day. £200 @ 1/4 paid for the Christmas turkey, Champagne and pud, quite nicely!

A Christmas day with extra sparkle - marvellous!

Paul

Edited September 16, 2006 by Dawlish

[Snowly does it]

Actually we had a repeat down here in 91 but not as cold.. but i remember it snowing all day tho :unsure: .. cant remember the actuall date :blink:

But the actual dates that we all want it to snow on is xmas eve and xmas day, for me that would just bring a huge sparkle into xmas :lol:

Feb 7th - I had the same memory lapse! There is a thread on it in historic weather which has the chart.

I spent 5 hours trying to get from the south coast to West London on a train in the 91 Easterly, and the snow was very deep and very satisfying!

Similar set-ups are still of course possible (the very same type of cold pools still exist), but they always were a rare beast. We'll get one again at some point, when however is a very different matter!

[North-Easterly Blast]

Recent years have seen September develop a trend for as equally repetitive warm weather patterns as many winters since 1988 have seen. The question to be raised is that recent Octobers have often been dominated by low pressures over the UK and close to average temperatures. There have only been two above average temperature Octobers in the last ten years. It remains a puzzling fact that since 1997 September has almost always been the warm month, whereas October has almost always been the wet month and rarely much above average temperaturewise. One would think that it would have varied more with either of the two being the warm month. I tell you, if only we could get a September resembling many October's weather patterns of the past ten years, and an October resembling many recent Septembers, I am sure the winters would become different to many of the mild winters of recent years too.

In recent years the typical weather patterns of various months are:

January: A tendency for mild SW'lies; little significant N'ly or E'ly spells.

February: Until recently a tendency for very mild weather; last 3/4 years seen a little more variability, often bringing a cold snap later in the month.

March: A general trend for mild weather, occasional colder Marches have occurred.

April: No consistency until 2002, then a trend for relatively warm weather.

May: A trend for warm weather, rainfall variable.

June: A warming since 2003.

July: Shown little consistency over recent years.

August: Relatively warm over recent years, rainfall no consistency.

September: Very repetitive with warm and often dry weather.

October: Often very wet with average temps.

November: A tendency for mild SW'lies, or mild dry Azores Highs over the UK.

December: No bias towards cold, average or mild conditions. All have occurred.

So, from my conclusion, the most repetitive trend at present, is the warm / dry September ; average / wet October combination and if anything this pattern has now become more repetitive than any other months of the year. Will it ever end? We are now looking at breaking the record for the longest run of consecutive Septembers with CETs over 14*C; previous records have been four in a row. Sep 2006 will make five in a row, so will be a record. If this month, Sep 2006 has a CET over 15*C, then it will be another record gone and the only instance of two successive Septembers over 15*C.

[Nick H]

January: A tendency for mild SW'lies; little significant N'ly or E'ly spells.

February: Until recently a tendency for very mild weather; last 3/4 years seen a little more variability, often bringing a cold snap later in the month.

March: A general trend for mild weather, occasional colder Marches have occurred.

April: No consistency until 2002, then a trend for relatively warm weather.

May: A trend for warm weather, rainfall variable.

June: A warming since 2003.

July: Shown little consistency over recent years.

August: Relatively warm over recent years, rainfall no consistency.

September: Very repetitive with warm and often dry weather.

October: Often very wet with average temps.

November: A tendency for mild SW'lies, or mild dry Azores Highs over the UK.

December: No bias towards cold, average or mild conditions. All have occurred.

Interesting analysis of the various months' recent trend, and I'd agree with all but one, viz. December: we have had only one mild December since 1988 (1994), most have been cold or slightly below average.

Also, I think I'm right in saying that June and September have been the two months which have shown the largest warming trend in the very recent past (10 years or so). This is interesting because it is these very two months which showed the least warming between the 1961-90 and 1971-00 CET.

Edited September 16, 2006 by Nick H

[North-Easterly Blast]

Although the frequency of colder weather / colder synoptic types in the UK declined around 1988, the general weather pattern we see today was set back in early 1997.

The facts are that all years but one since 1997 have seen annual CETs well above 10*C, and no more than 20 calendar months since 1997 have returned a below average CET, and it is now at least ten years since a notably cold month with a deviation of 2*C from the average occurred in any season. Whereas in the period 1988-1996 some years still had sub 10*C annual CETs, some colder than average months still occurred although not always in the winter, and these years showed more variability over most of the year in terms of the overall weather pattern.

My main view is that until we see a return at least to annual CETs below 10*C we will never see a truly cold winter, and that a winter like 2000-01 or 2005-06 will be the best we shall get unless our weather at least reverts back to any pre 1997 type of weather patterns.

[Dawlish]

Although the frequency of colder weather / colder synoptic types in the UK declined around 1988, the general weather pattern we see today was set back in early 1997.

The facts are that all years but one since 1997 have seen annual CETs well above 10*C, and no more than 20 calendar months since 1997 have returned a below average CET, and it is now at least ten years since a notably cold month with a deviation of 2*C from the average occurred in any season. Whereas in the period 1988-1996 some years still had sub 10*C annual CETs, some colder than average months still occurred although not always in the winter, and these years showed more variability over most of the year in terms of the overall weather pattern.

My main view is that until we see a return at least to annual CETs below 10*C we will never see a truly cold winter, and that a winter like 2000-01 or 2005-06 will be the best we shall get unless our weather at least reverts back to any pre 1997 type of weather patterns.

Hi NEB,

Now that is a view with which I agree completely!

Paul

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It is reverting, and what odds will you give me that as early as 2012 it will be 'obvious' that we are cooling...indeed the signs are there for me now and have been for a while. Don't run away with what our CET is because longterm synoptic setup has THE influence over the UK as our climate/weather is not static or set in stone. There still is no major Atlantic influence, the general pattern even over the last few months has been of easterly setup...just ask the aviation authority on why Gatwick etc have had to change their flight patterns...it has been going on for sometime now and looks set to continue and that is from the horses mouth.

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

Yes, winds have often come from an easterly quater this year, which is quite interesting although it could just be a normal charecteristic of the current solar minimum.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes, winds have often come from an easterly quater this year, which is quite interesting although it could just be a normal charecteristic of the current solar minimum.

SB

I have lived in Redhill since 1992 and I have very very rarely been on the flight path...god the increase has been amazing...I fully believe the longterm pattern change has occurred

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

As I continue to think about a winter forecast, there are indications of an unusually strong jet stream developing across the Atlantic this winter, which would probably be associated with more mild than cold weather, but also a high index for blocking over Scandinavia, so perhaps the 1987 scenario may try to repeat in January.

Many things about the circulation are quite different at this stage of 2006 than last year. For example, the hurricane season has been quieter and more focused on the central Atlantic. Cold air has made an earlier appearance over North America and Greenland with massive outflow into the western Atlantic. This has the effect of forcing a trough near 30 W but as the season progresses and the jet stream moves further south, it will naturally take up a position near the thermocline which should be stronger than last year. So instead of the weak, semi-permanent ridge in the upper flow near 10-20 W which brought so much boring, bland anticyclonic weather and teased you (us vicariously speaking) with its flirtations with the blocking high, this winter could be dominated more by strong low pressure systems that will tend to split into two streams, one running far north due to a warm SST anomaly near Svalbard, and the other running ESE across Europe to avoid the developing Russian blocking high, a feature I expect to be as strong as last year's but appearing two to three weeks earlier in terms of retrograde movement.

Put this all together and I think this could be a very active winter with more stormy episodes than you've had for quite a few years -- after all, a correction to the recent run of rather boring winters is bound to come, and I like what I'm seeing of September so far -- the fact that the U.K. is still in a warm, dry pattern is to be expected given all these other factors. It could stay rather mild right through December in the kind of pattern evolution I'm talking about here, then become highly variable.

[summer blizzard]

I am not sure, the eleven year sunspot cycle alone would suggest a return to mild conditions very soon however the 22 year magnetic cyle would suggest a cold cycle beggining in 2002, from which temperatures have been declining.

Rodger J Smith, very interesting thoughts and you may be right, to me it sounds like the 1977 anologue which has been talked about in the El Nino thread, personally, i expect a rather average December and January, followed by a very cold February.

Edited September 16, 2006 by summer blizzard

[lesta_snow]

quitteee misty all day 2 day very misty now! nice calm autumn night no wind at all

[blitzen]

There are so many conflicting opinions around this coming Winter, all with reasonable explanations. One thing for sure, every season of every year always seems to have a story/event worth discussing and I don't think that this Winter will be any different. In fact I think I will see if Dawlish will give me odds that this winter will also have a notable event attached to it whether it be Mild, cold, wet, dry there will be a tale to tell!