Solar and Aurora Activity Chat

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 129.8

Adjusted Flux Density  125.6 = medium

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 126.2

Adjusted Flux Density  122.1 = medium

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 131.6

Adjusted Flux Density  127.3 = medium

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 131.7

Adjusted Flux Density  127.4 = medium

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 122.0

Adjusted Flux Density  118.0 = medium

perhaps dropping off a little

[Don]

2 hours ago, JeffC said:

Observed Flux Density 122.0

Adjusted Flux Density  118.0 = medium

perhaps dropping off a little

We need it to continue dropping off!

[JeffC]

3 hours ago, Don said:

We need it to continue dropping off!

Indeed

[mountain shadow]

9 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Indeed

Why so? When solar activity was low we didn't get a cold spell.

Also, the Western Pacific Coastal area has received near record cold yet they have the same climatic as ourselves. 

Are we really saying that the increase in solar activity is good for them but bad for us? 

[JeffC]

19 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Why so? When solar activity was low we didn't get a cold spell.

Also, the Western Pacific Coastal area has received near record cold yet they have the same climatic as ourselves. 

Are we really saying that the increase in solar activity is good for them but bad for us? 

No, but what we're saying is a quieter sun tends to result in a cooler earth generally, out with the normal variations in weather...

[mountain shadow]

32 minutes ago, JeffC said:

No, but what we're saying is a quieter sun tends to result in a cooler earth generally, out with the normal variations in weather...

But that's a long term thing.

Allegedly, the uptick in solar activity immediately invigorates the jet stream, decreasing the chance of Northerly blocking, however, that hasn't stopped a huge Pacific ridge into the Arctic. 

Edited December 28, 2021 by mountain shadow

[booferking]

4 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

But that's a long term thing.

Allegedly, the uptick in solar activity immediately invigorates the jet stream, decreasing the chance of Northerly blocking, however, that hasn't stopped a huge Pacific ridge into the Arctic. 

But solar activity only effect our side of the hemisphere sillythey like to tell yea .

[booferking]

4 hours ago, JeffC said:

No, but what we're saying is a quieter sun tends to result in a cooler earth generally, out with the normal variations in weather...

How come the colder variation never happens here there's other players, and not one person on this forum can explain why we are stuck in the middle of nothing when every weather driver points to colder blocked weather for ourselves and we get diddly-squat everytime fax.

[swfc]

13 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

But that's a long term thing.

Allegedly, the uptick in solar activity immediately invigorates the jet stream, decreasing the chance of Northerly blocking, however, that hasn't stopped a huge Pacific ridge into the Arctic. 

High mountain shadow. I'm trying to learn in regard to solar activity and its effects on the jet etc. How does the change during a quick uptick in activity affect the weather so quickly, tia 

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, swfc said:

High mountain shadow. I'm trying to learn in regard to solar activity and its effects on the jet etc. How does the change during a quick uptick in activity affect the weather so quickly, tia 

That's the million dollar question swfc. 

There is no doubt solar flares result in increased energy hitting the planet. Does that increase in energy suddenly boost the jet stream giving more zonal conditions?

If it does,  why has it only impacted on the Atlantic and not the Pacific?

[swfc]

57 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That's the million dollar question swfc. 

There is no doubt solar flares result in increased energy hitting the planet. Does that increase in energy suddenly boost the jet stream giving more zonal conditions?

If it does,  why has it only impacted on the Atlantic and not the Pacific?

Thanks

Think I've got a new hobby away from the models for a while. Il delve a bit more

[JeffC]

@booferking fair points you and @mountain shadow make, the point is many on here would like to see prolonged low levels of solar activity as a true solar minimum, the increased activity as indicated by SF and SS figures.

While I would agree there is a low likelihood of immediate isolated impacts, the reduction in SF which correlates with solar activity is generally welcomed by those who would like to see another proper minimum along the lines of the Dalton and Maunder minima.

Good luck @swfc with your studies!

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 112.4

Adjusted Flux Density  108.7 = medium

[Don]

18 hours ago, JeffC said:

Observed Flux Density 112.4

Adjusted Flux Density  108.7 = medium

A further drop then.

[JeffC]

6 hours ago, Don said:

A further drop then.

Aye...and another...

Edited December 30, 2021 by JeffC

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 102.4

Adjusted Flux Density  99.0 = low

Yay, back below 100...hopefully to remain so!

[Don]

23 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Observed Flux Density 102.4

Adjusted Flux Density  99.0 = low

Yay, back below 100...hopefully to remain so!

Good, hopefully it's had its fun and games for now?! 

Edited December 30, 2021 by Don

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 101.5

Adjusted Flux Density  98.2 = low

[Katrine Basso]

FIRST AURORAS OF THE NEW YEAR: Northern Finland rang in the New Year with a display of auroras. "They spread across the whole sky," says Eduard Masana, who sends this picture from the Puljo Wilderness:

[JeffC]

Observed Flux Density 93.9

Adjusted Flux Density  90.8 = low

Now stay down!!!

[swfc]

1 minute ago, JeffC said:

Observed Flux Density 93.9

Adjusted Flux Density  90.8 = low

Now stay down!!!

Hi. Bit new to this but does it bottom out. Tia