The GFS 18hz Discussion Thread

[nick sussex]

Just to highlight the uncertainty here are the 72hr charts for the big 3 models.

GFS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.html

ECM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.html

UKMO

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=072hr

Also the fax chart for the same time.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack2.gif

The key difference in the ukmo and gfs versus the ecm is the better build of pressure to the ne.

As I mentioned earlier about the radio 4 forecast at 7.55am I dont think I've ever heard Rob McElwee sound so uncertain regarding events from midweek. This is certainly turning into one of biggest model dramas ever seen on here, I'll be happy with either the gfs or ukmo to be right, fingers crossed that the ecm ditch their awful 00hrs run and get into the spirit of things this evening.

[tinybill]

Just to highlight the uncertainty here are the 72hr charts for the big 3 models.

GFS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.html

ECM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.html

UKMO

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?...&hour=072hr

Also the fax chart for the same time.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack2.gif

The key difference in the ukmo and gfs versus the ecm is the better build of pressure to the ne.

As I mentioned earlier about the radio 4 forecast at 7.55am I dont think I've ever heard Rob McElwee sound so uncertain regarding events from midweek. This is certainly turning into one of biggest model dramas ever seen on here, I'll be happy with either the gfs or ukmo to be right, fingers crossed that the ecm ditch their awful 00hrs run and get into the spirit of things this evening.

nick i posted last night it could go 2 ways uk get dumded by loads of snow as the batt;e rage/or be mild all eyes country file later i think

[Supacell]

Yes and I'd say from the latest projections, eastern and northern areas are now looking cold and dry. Somewhere in the S and W look more likely for northern edge frontal snow midweek.

Thats not so good for us wanting snow in the Midlands though

[Matt Jones]

Changes still bound to come though, as countryfile will show later today, forecasting snow this week for any given location will be virtually impossible. Although higher ground always more favourable.

[nick sussex]

Pity the poor forecaster doing the countryfile weather today! what are they supposed to say well the weather for the week ahead is cold till tuesday then the screen goes blank! The ukmo do run a 48hr model for 06hrs and 18hrs on top of their normally twice daily 144hrs runs so perhaps this may help them a little. And also might they pay more attention than normal to the gfs 06hrs run seeing as they'll be desperate not to look too confused for countryfile.

The only backing for the ecm this morning in terms of it being very progressive is the gem, all the other models do build stronger pressure to the east and ne, perhaps we might end up today with an ecm/ukmo/gfs combo with extra cheese and reliDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me

[stratty]

Certainly is anyones guess at the mo!

Although the cold does seem to want to hang on longer and longer.

Looking at the charts this morning it could go so many different ways!

[nick sussex]

The freebie ecm ensemble this morning is for the Isle of Man, the ecm is all over the place from as early as wednesday with a huge spread of ensemble members, however the ecm operational run looks like on the cold side of its members earlier and then one of the mildest options from late wednesday.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/d/sampler/ep...urope/page.html

John Hammond on bbc weather just now said much colder with a chance of snow later in the week, from the hints so far I think the latest fax charts arent going to back the ecm which would be a big relief.

Edited February 4, 2007 by nick sussex

[johnholmes]

I'll do another blog once I've seen the 06z output but by then nobody will be interested with most glued to whoever is 'duty BBC bod' for Countryfile!

[paul tall]

Yes and I'd say from the latest projections, eastern and northern areas are now looking cold and dry. Somewhere in the S and W look more likely for northern edge frontal snow midweek.

OH........what a surprise

[TEITS]

Wonderful to see the confusion has cleared this morning. At this rate the only thing we can do is use the very scienfitic method of looking out of the window :lol:

All eyes on the +132 fax chart to sort this one out for the time being. Worth considering though the UKMO +120 chart has IMO been the best performer so far this winter with some consistent accuracy.

Look how chilly it gets!

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U72-580.GIF

RAF Marham recorded -6C last night so not a bad start to the cold spell.

Edited February 4, 2007 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Globe]

Irish met have finally backtracked from the Friday forecast of being mild, wet and windy from this Tuesday. It now goes as far as Thurs and suggests very cold with rain, sleet or snow, oh and wind :lol: Encouraging!

http://www.met.ie/

[D KARLSON]

At this time of year these cold scenarios have a much better chance of coming off as cold air has had a chance to build over europe russia and scandinavia, so in escence what we are seeing is the models trying too handle how the cold pool over scandinavia will be shifted or whether high pressure builds over this area and pushes back the atlantic systems.

One thing to be pleased about is the timing, if we are to get a prolonged cold spell its coming at the right time so given the right synoptics many places could see snow and freezing temperatures, as opposed to last year when we had perfect synoptics that came towards the start of march, lets hope we have something severe this time

[tugmistress]

The 06z charts are starting to filter through, new discussion opened for you all to ride the winter roller coaster :lol: