The GFS 18hz Discussion Thread

[mackerel sky]

Some intruging late night watching coming up i'd imagine, but I need to spend some time with my wife. Sleeping.

Keep the good work up PP and others...

[grab my graupel]

Well, I shall be staying up for the 00z (again). As long as I work evenings weekly, then I will be able to do this - and there is no evidence of me jinxing it either; after the last couple of runs were quite decent.

Yes, well done P.P. I thought that you might.

Just got in from an evening out and read every post since the 18z. Wow! Edge of the seat stuff. I just want a repeat of Feb '96 for as many people as possible. 24 hours of snow, big snowmen, sledging, snowball fights, memorable indeed. It could happen. Hanging on every run now.

Now that is what I call a ramp

[MAF]

So how long before we see you relaying what the 00z has to offer then PP?

[Geordiesnow]

These are interesting times. We haven't had synoptics like these for several years.

Again the whinging and whining sets in, in some quarters.

What must the weather and models do to keep people happy?

I won't be going off on one tonight, in fact i'm going to bed.

I'm sorry if people thought i was whinging about tonights models but i was just confused in why people were so happy. I've learnt now that this could produce something better than fronttal snowfall.

[mackerel sky]

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/ *

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Theres a ramp.

Damn you text editor.

Now i look a fool.

Edited February 4, 2007 by mackerel sky

[kippure]

Heres one

[mackerel sky]

I'm sorry if people thought i was whinging about tonights models but i was just confused in why people were so happy. I've learnt now that this could produce something better than fronttal snowfall.

General comment, not related to you whatsoever.

I am now going to bed before I dig somemore holes.

Heres one

Nice ramp.

[Cloud 10]

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Theres a ramp.

Damn you text editor.

Now i look a fool.

try this one for size!

[mackerel sky]

try this one for size!

Thats a beauty!

Night all!

[kippure]

try this one for size!

Thats big. must be some serious cold on the way.....

[PersianPaladin]

STOP IT!!!!

STOP RAMPING!

[MAF]

the posts are getting desperate waiting for the next lot of models i see :lol:

[grab my graupel]

try this one for size!

That's Awesome :lol: What a whopper!

[PersianPaladin]

But I guess its Saturday evening, the 18z has been for a few pints, its got rat arsed and so is everybody else. You'll all wake up with a horrid hang over tommorow morning, and so will the GFS - with an erased memory of tonights fantasy.

[guitarnutter]

can someone just give the facts??

[Optimus Prime]

Well cloud 10 has just been revealed as the MasterRamper :lol:

BFTP, nothing is set in stone. A remember those SSTS are still significantly higher then normal and we've just had a record breaking 2/3 of a winter.

can someone just give the facts??

The Pub Run has lived up to it's reputation.

[PersianPaladin]

can someone just give the facts??

Read through the last pages of the thread....there are quite a few posts giving some useful information. John Holmes blogs will also be required reading too.

Edited February 4, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[grab my graupel]

But I guess its Saturday evening, the 18z has been for a few pints, its got rat arsed and so is everybody else. You'll all wake up with a horrid hang over tommorow morning, and so will the GFS - with an erased memory of tonights fantasy.

I think we ought to try to change the tone a little P.P.

I think we are turning it into a bit of a banter thread again! :lol:

Any serious thoughts?

[johnholmes]

for anyone interested my blog 5 weather update is out.

An interesting time for sure.

John

[PersianPaladin]

I think we ought to try to change the tone a little P.P.

I think we are turning it into a bit of a banter thread again! :lol:

Any serious thoughts?

I posted some thoughts earlier, but they have been buried now under the ramping - lol.

All I can say is that this is still a very fragile situation; with a large amount of factors at play here; including the subtropical high and its orientation south-west of the jet-streak (influencing its axis), the modelling of the PV south and west of Greenland and its eventual dissipation or reformation depending on continued height rises over Scandi and how much continued forcing we get from the jet. Will the jet overcome the high? I really don't know.

More runs needed.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Only on this thread could there be people moaning after the best day of runs this winter!!!

Anyway, ensembles are complete, not much sign of what the GFS has come up with on them, which is unusual.

Looking east, perhaps increasing agreement of height rises though..

I agree; can't see much grounds for pessimism at the moment, the trend at the moment is very much towards a progressive delay in the onset of the westerlies, and a strengthening of high pressure over Scandinavia prolonging the battleground period. Who knows, it's even possible that the Scandinavian High could exert its influence westwards, with a southerly tracking jet undercutting the High and a cold east to north-east flow setting in; an outside bet IMO, but I had to ramp at some point during this year, so ramp I have done. I still believe that the jet will ultimately overcome the block but have to say that my confidence on that happening has lowered further to 65%.

I take Paul Tall's point from unusually snow-starved Newton Aycliffe, but it has to be said, a straightforward win for the Atlantic is riddled with at least as much chance for a non-event as a prolonged battleground. The Atlantic coming straight in would not guarantee snow as it depends on how rapidly the mild air moves with the precipitation- it might deliver a few hours of light sleet/wet snow, or even freezing rain- and then that's it. Even in that worst-case scenario of the battleground possibilities for snow lovers with the Atlantic fronts out to the W and the easterlies to the E, we would be on the cold side of the block- compare with January 2006 when we were always on the mild side of it.

[johnholmes]

I posted some thoughts earlier, but they have been buried now under the ramping - lol.

All I can say is that this is still a very fragile situation; with a large amount of factors at play here; including the subtropical high and its orientation south-west of the jet-streak (influencing its axis), the modelling of the PV south and west of Greenland and its eventual dissipation or reformation depending on continued height rises over Scandi and how much continued forcing we get from the jet. Will the jet overcome the high? I really don't know.

More runs needed.

you do realise of course that the high, the jet, the pva etc etc are all totally linked. They each depend on one another and cannot be separated.

[PersianPaladin]

you do realise of course that the high, the jet, the pva etc etc are all totally linked. They each depend on one another and cannot be separated.

Ahh....the joy of feedback loops eh?

There are some who subscribe to the over-riding SST rule and "hail the power of the jet" or low-level temp gradient as the over-riding force. Of course, it is inter-related; but sometimes certain factors can be more important than others.

Edited February 4, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[Cloud 10]

Sorry if i scared anyone with the size of my ramp :lol:

The fax chart for monday shows a couple of troughs heading for northern and eastern scotland,so i would think some heavy snow showers to come there.

What a great run the 18z was,hopefully the trend will continue.

[PersianPaladin]

All we need is Steve.

He has been enjoying the nice and sunny (but very cold) Icelandic weather at the mo.

Or maybe not? Seems to have been some flurries around in the last 24 hrs.

Edited February 4, 2007 by PersianPaladin