The GFS 18hz Discussion Thread

[Snowyowl9]

Where`s Steve Murr.

What a huge uprade in just one run.

This is going to be a battle now.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1201.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1321.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1501.png

I`d rather see this come off a very cold surface east/SE wind.

[The Eagle]

A definate improvement from the 18z

Maybe I will cancel my moan tonight ...................until tomorrow that is

You should. Great potential! Nite!

[grab my graupel]

A definate improvement from the 18z

Maybe I will cancel my moan tonight :lol: ...................until tomorrow that is :lol:

I'll forgive you for that last moan J.S.

If you forgive me for my ramping,

Nice run though I agree.

Even if it limits the snow in the short term it will certainly feel like winter,

and then who knows. It's all exciting stuff.

Edited February 3, 2007 by grab my graupels

[The PIT]

Where`s Steve Murr.

Passed out well it's the pub run. :lol: :lol:

Edited February 3, 2007 by The PIT

[Matty M]

Well the disagreement as early as 72hrs in the Ensembles is quite disturbing really!

From zonality breaking through to an easterly starting at 72hrs..

Only out to 84hrs atm

[Tim Bland]

A transitionary snow event is far less likely to deliver that an easterly - it's not only the east that sees snow from a decent easterly, history shows that... Long way to go though.

All of my memories of decent snow amounts have come from transitionary events. Easterly's will deliver days of flurries and the odd dusting Id rather a day of 6" of snow than a week of flurries. Cold is no god without snow IMO. Oh well the weather will do what it'll do regardless of what we prefer. should be an interesting few days model watching!

[TEITS]

Sorry I dont share the optimism. This run is a major downgrade for a rare large scale snow event midweek. As has already been said an Easterly will only bring snow to the extreem East. What the 12z and Fax etc show is a snow event over most of the country giving at least 5cm to most locations. Sorry but this is a disapointing run as far as im concerned. Anyway whinge over back to the beer :lol:

Personally I have never understood the excitement of a few hrs of snow followed by a thaw and then rain. Seems like a waste of time IMO.

If we could see a true E,ly bringing that mass of cold air over the continent this could bring joy to us all. Some people think all E,lys bring is snow showers on E coasts. :lol: . All the classic cold spells of the past bought snowfall for the whole country except Cork!.

Im getting a bit ahead of myself but what im trying to say is the 18Z maybe a downgrade for snowfall in the shortterm but in the longer term the 18Z has produced a fasinating scenario thats going to be alot of fun following over these next few days, I can't wait to view the ensembles.

[robert]

*passes cookies and hot chocolate around*

Great charts and many more upgrades to come ! :lol: :lol:

Robert

[Matty M]

Just seen one of the tastiest Ensembles every at 162hrs

Low pressure heading into southern Engerland High pressure over Scandy heavy snow for here heavy frontal snow!!

haha

must be said they arent all like that!

[Paul]

All of my memories of decent snow amounts have come from transitionary events. Easterly's will deliver days of flurries and the odd dusting Id rather a day of 6" of snow than a week of flurries. Cold is no god without snow IMO. Oh well the weather will do what it'll do regardless of what we prefer. should be an interesting few days model watching!

You may be right, but a transitionary event from a fairly weak northerly was never going to amount to a great deal. A transitionary event following a reasonable easterly could be much more interesting!!

[kippure]

Just seen one of the tastiest Ensembles every at 162hrs

Low pressure heading into southern Engerland High pressure over Scandy heavy snow for here heavy frontal snow!!

haha

must be said they arent all like that!

link me :lol:

[tom_f123]

i must make sure i dont miss countryfile forecast tommorow lol

[hot and cold]

Personally I have never understood the excitement of a few hrs of snow followed by a thaw and then rain. Seems like a waste of time IMO.

If we could see a true E,ly bringing that mass of cold air over the continent this could bring joy to us all. Some people think all E,lys bring is snow showers on E coasts. :lol: . All the classic cold spells of the past bought snowfall for the whole country except Cork!.

Im getting a bit ahead of myself but what im trying to say is the 18Z maybe a downgrade for snowfall in the shortterm but in the longer term the 18Z has produced a fasinating scenario thats going to be alot of fun following over these next few days, I can't wait to view the ensembles.

Yep, always was a real disappointment in the old days, and we always thought that this time would be the one where the snow didn't turn to rain.......but it mostly did, one or two times the Easterly hung on, let me tell you they were great times! :lol:

[Tim Bland]

This run may be an upgrade for cold but not for snow! If you look at percipitation its next to nothing. the easterly will be blowing from a very dry scandinvia sitting under a high pressure. If the 18z came off most of the country wouldn't see even 1cm of lying snow for the next week. If the 12z comes off most places will see between 5-15cm with kids (and me ) building snow men and sledging! Sorry a lower cet for the month doesn't realy do it for its not low temps its snow I want!

[BARRY]

*passes cookies and hot chocolate around*

Great charts and many more upgrades to come ! :lol: :lol:

Robert

is that programed into your replies, thats the same thing you said earlier

[cold snap]

Personally I have never understood the excitement of a few hrs of snow followed by a thaw and then rain. Seems like a waste of time IMO.

If we could see a true E,ly bringing that mass of cold air over the continent this could bring joy to us all. Some people think all E,lys bring is snow showers on E coasts. :lol: . All the classic cold spells of the past bought snowfall for the whole country except Cork!.

Im getting a bit ahead of myself but what im trying to say is the 18Z maybe a downgrade for snowfall in the shortterm but in the longer term the 18Z has produced a fasinating scenario thats going to be alot of fun following over these next few days, I can't wait to view the ensembles.

agree you took the words out off my mouth

[Matty M]

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-1-126.png?18

To bring back some good memories Kippure :lol:

[Matt Jones]

Yes, the longer the cold from the east the better, gives us a better shot down the line, hopefully!

Though the uncertainty remains as to just how long the HP can hold on.

[January Snowstorm]

All the classic cold spells of the past bought snowfall for the whole country except Cork!.

:lol:

Mods he's affecting my mental health :lol:

[Matty M]

:lol:

Mods he's affecting my mental health :lol:

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-1-126.png?18

Its alright ... heres a remedy

[Nick F]

T+96 and t+120 faxes have updated recently for 12z Weds and Thurs:

12z Weds: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3.gif

12z Thurs: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

From the 12z UKMO output - it is alot more progressive in introducing the frontal system from the SW on Thursday, though it appears to have the upper long-wave trough arriving more NW-SE alligned than GFS. The 18z GFS has the frontal system/upper trough way back West at 12z Thurs and more alligned N-S, due to the stronger high progged to the East:

[kippure]

http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-2-1-126.png?18

To bring back some good memories Kippure :lol:

Seen that before :lol:

Alittle boost too, coming off the irish sea.

[PB22]

The ensemble mean shows a deep low just to the west of the UK by T+168, so don't expect anything too exciting on the 850hPa ensembles when they appear later. With huge differences in the models at T+72 we could wake up to almost anything from the charts in the morning. I would tend to favour the cold as if it was a straight forward zonal situation, the models would not be all over the place like they currently are.

[grab my graupel]

Im getting a bit ahead of myself but what im trying to say is the 18Z maybe a downgrade for snowfall in the shortterm but in the longer term the 18Z has produced a fasinating scenario thats going to be alot of fun following over these next few days, I can't wait to view the ensembles.

I think you deserve a good ramp Dave!

Afterall you have conducted yourself in a very dignified manor as always :lol:

[Geordiesnow]

This run may be an upgrade for cold but not for snow! If you look at percipitation its next to nothing. the easterly will be blowing from a very dry scandinvia sitting under a high pressure. If the 18z came off most of the country wouldn't see even 1cm of lying snow for the next week. If the 12z comes off most places will see between 5-15cm with kids (and me ) building snow men and sledging! Sorry a lower cet for the month doesn't realy do it for its not low temps its snow I want!

Its also confusing me slightly why people are liking this run. Dry easterlys are useless and if this was to be the case then people will be getting bored waking up to frost every morning. However if its a easteley with loads precipitation, then there is room for excitment. Of corse you got to consider that this is only one run so anything is possible.