The GFS 18hz Discussion Thread

[PersianPaladin]

I hope so P.P.

I'll be pleased as long as the blocking remains to the East.

and with it the potential for something better further down the line.

Hehehe, lets see if my crazy jinx mantra has worked.

(Heads back to watch Borat...)

Edited February 4, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[paul tall]

Nope, it hasn't.

It only stopped snowing in the North east when you started staying up for the 00z.

PP = Jonah.

[The Eagle]

Im caught in a bind here. Stay up or dont. Basically the 00z could send me to bed in a really bad mood and I dont want that..........

Ah to hell with it - Im up!

[grab my graupel]

You crazy lot aren't staying up for the 0Z are you

I would but I don't have enough cigarettes to last me through the night .

It's funny you should say that Dave.

I'd stopped smoking for about ten days and then started again when I came on here

[PersianPaladin]

It's funny you should say that Dave.

I'd stopped smoking for about ten days and then started again when I came on here

Not happy about that Brian.

[paul tall]

Thats nothing. I started peeling babies and rolling them in salt after viewing the models last month.

[PersianPaladin]

Thats nothing. I started peeling babies and rolling them in salt after viewing the models last month.

Ooohhkkkkaaaayyyy.....

[paul tall]

OK, it was a lie.

I didn't really.

[grab my graupel]

Not happy about that Brian.

It's suprising how hard it is to stop.

Stopping drinking no problem,

Changing diet no problem.

But smoking!

And on topic.

I wonder with those AO/NAO forecasts that TEITS posted we might start to see proper

hight rises to the North soon.

Given the weather we had in December/ January I feared that we might have been looking

at a P.V. dominated winter with L.P. in charge.

[wellington boot]

It's suprising how hard it is to stop.

You know apparently, a surpisingly high proportion of smokers who have strokes give up smoking because of a medical phenomenon which causes their brains to be 'rewired' somehow. Minor brain damage to a certain small part of the brain doesn't affect them in any noticeable way other than they completely lose the deisre to smoke. They describe that they simply 'forget' to smoke. Strange huh? Scientists are looking into ways to manually alter the relevant portion of the brain so that smokers can give up.

[grab my graupel]

Right I'm off to bed peeps.

I don't think I can take the pace thismorning.

Try not to ramp too much.

See you all later

Night all.

Brian

[PersianPaladin]

Right I'm off to bed peeps.

I don't think I can take the pace thismorning.

Try not to ramp too much.

See you all later

Night all.

Brian

Night night. Don't let the downgrade bugs bite.

[wellington boot]

Right I'm off to bed peeps.

I don't think I can take the pace thismorning.

Try not to ramp too much.

See you all later

Night all.

Brian

ah no dont go!

Your so close. Its almost here! Im going to go play a footy game with an amigo, to save me the pain of watching it real time.

[PersianPaladin]

Scandi-high 5mb weaker on this run, but still developing. Bit worried about the jet tho, gets a tad too close for comfort at T114.

This is as far out as I want to look. Not bad: -

http://212.100.247.145/gfsimages/gfs.20070...120/h500slp.png

Edited February 4, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[Simon SWales]

Scandi-high 5mb weaker on this run, but still developing. Bit worried about the jet tho, gets a tad too close for comfort at T114.

This is as far out as I want to look. Not bad: -

http://212.100.247.145/gfsimages/gfs.20070...120/h500slp.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1202.png

look at this, I think we're onto something...East!!!!!

If 6z shows anything like this, meltdown tomorrow.

Edited February 4, 2007 by Simon SWales

[PersianPaladin]

00z brings the break-down to T150 (end of next week); and looks pretty marginal - with anywhere south of the Humber likely getting rain and sleet; and places west of the pennines and low ground getting rain\sleet too.

Not good.

[wellington boot]

00z brings the break-down to T150 (end of next week); and looks pretty marginal - with anywhere south of the Humber likely getting rain and sleet; and places west of the pennines and low ground getting rain\sleet too.

Not good.

No, i would say the break down is later than that. From around 150, the atlantic starts to get a few waves in, but it makes no real progress; even out at 240, its not got far. Take a look at the pressure gradient, theres serious resistance there;

undefined

we have to realise that if this all turns out well, the models are not suddenly going to show it up today and then give us consistency into FI every run. Its still just a developing trend for the High to resist the LP from the atlantic. So to see it again is very reassuring. plenty of potential there. And PP, im sure you are aware of the closeness of FI at the moment. The models dont really have a grasp of whats going on at the moment.

[Roger J Smith]

That's quite true, the models may be having trouble with this very unusual polar high. Right now there is a 1050 mb high just about right over the north pole, perhaps 88N 90W although up there longitude means very little. A high over the pole is of course a whole different animal than a Greenland high, but the models tend to bring it towards northern Norway and leaking pressure like a typical pseudo-high washed out of Greenland, but I wonder if that may be too fast and a more robust high might show up in Norway in about 48-72 hours. In any case, a very cold northerly flow is now indicated for Monday-Tuesday and it could turn out colder than some forecasts would imply at present, then this very cold air is going to be quite difficult to scour out when the rather sluggish Atlantic finally wakes up and tries to move it. So my take on the 00z runs of various models would be to stress a fairly high probability of snow from Wednesday to Friday in eastern portions of England and southeast Scotland. Winds could be almost due east despite the southeast geostrophic flow, and the milder air is going to be heading due north more than east for most of Friday.

After that I would think the period from about 11th to 17th will be milder and stormy, but colder air could return with another Scandi high linking towards Iceland and Greenland later in the month.

[jam]

pmsl at u lot

Not a great contribution to the Forum and not a good start

Snow watch bekons mate

[nick sussex]

Morning all

The gfs and ukmo both agree on pressure building to the east and these two charts make interesting reading as we see a shortwave develop and run se towards france, the ukmo is the best as this develops this feature much more than the gfs, there could be some significant snow as this clears se wards.Where exactly depends on the track of this, we wont know till much nearer the time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

However we've seen so many changes over the last few days it would be premature to bank on this feature , where it tracks is still liable to change. The longer term sees a low try and get in from the atlantic but given the volatile nature of the models I wouldnt look any further than 96hrs.

But it was of course too good to be true to have good news all round, the ecm this morning shunts the atlantic in by 96hrs! pretty amazing differences at only 96hrs.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/...0400!!/

This morning its the gfs, ukmo, no gaps, gme against the ecm and gem! that ecm chart is a worry. Lets hope the ecm hast now picked up on another signal as the ecm is awful, we'll know what the ukmo think when they update their fax charts, the use the ecm ensembles to see how much support their operational run has, if the ukmo dont modify their data and stick with their own model that would be a good sign, all this model drama is getting too much for me, I'm suffering from nervous exhaustion! lol

Edited February 4, 2007 by nick sussex

[tinybill]

dont know if its me but is the gfs is saying there going to be a longer cold spell now to at least from 192 hr now to 386 at lest it was not saying that last night when i was looking at it

pps all eyes on the country file forcast later that well be very interesting this week

Edited February 4, 2007 by tinybill

[nick sussex]

Its a pretty amazing state of affairs when the models dont even agree at T-72hrs! the ecm disagrees with the ukmo from as early as 72hrs and I cant find a single ensemble member in the GEFS that backs the ecm at 96hrs! however we cant discount this run because its awful we're going to have to wait and see what happens later.

Just heard the radio 4 weather with Rob McElwee said colder mon and tue chance of snow from around midweek for wales central and southern england but highlighted the uncertainty, actually he sounded like the ukmo are as in the dark about this as us on here.

Edited February 4, 2007 by nick sussex

[MisfitDog3]

I think the present uncertainty across the models just goes to show the difficulty of getting snow events right. I really wouldn't like to call this one at all! Again, none of the model runs looks really convincing 72hrs +.....

[Polar Continental]

Its a pretty amazing state of affairs when the models dont even agree at T-72hrs! the ecm disagrees with the ukmo from as early as 72hrs and I cant find a single ensemble member in the GEFS that backs the ecm at 96hrs! however we cant discount this run because its awful we're going to have to wait and see what happens later.

Just heard the radio 4 weather with Rob McElwee said colder mon and tue chance of snow from around midweek for wales central and southern england but highlighted the uncertainty, actually he sounded like the ukmo are as in the dark about this as us on here.

Actually Nick, i am finding this rather more exciting than when the models are more tuned in and in agreement, this is like going back to the late 70’s with regards to uncertainty of what may happen, this could end up with the mother of all freeze up’s, The GFS is already showing temperatures as low as –6c for Tuesday and Wednesday quite widely, so I wouldn’t rule out a few –8c to –10c and with that projected deep low pushing in from the Atlantic by late Friday, there could be widespread severe blizzards as the warm Atlantic air comes up against the very cold pool of air over the country................

Well that’s my ramp over with for this morning.

Paul

[Matt Jones]

Actually Nick, i am finding this rather more exciting than when the models are more tuned in and in agreement, this is like going back to the late 70’s with regards to uncertainty of what may happen, this could end up with the mother of all freeze up’s, The GFS is already showing temperatures as low as –6c for Tuesday and Wednesday quite widely, so I wouldn’t rule out a few –8c to –10c and with that projected deep low pushing in from the Atlantic by late Friday, there could be widespread severe blizzards as the warm Atlantic air comes up against the very cold pool of air over the country................

Well that’s my ramp over with for this morning.

Paul

Yes and I'd say from the latest projections, eastern and northern areas are now looking cold and dry. Somewhere in the S and W look more likely for northern edge frontal snow midweek.