Virtual storm chase

[Paul Sherman]

Over on Stormtrack, Charles Edwards and a few other have bagged the Mcclean Tornado and it was a Nice Fat Cone Tornado as well, and live reports of the Wheeler County just about to drop !! POTTY LAND QUICK

Also some of the cells up by Woodward look as if they may be rotating anti cyclonically

Paul Sherman

3 Confirmed Tornadoes for today atm

Paul S

[Gorky]

Yep.. very pleased with my position today Not sure if a tornado dropped near Wheeler, but I would have been in prime position if it had. Then again if I'd continued over to Mclean like I originally said this afternoon, I probably wouldn't have had to chase at all and I very likely would have bagged the tornado without moving a mile from my afternoon start point.

[Paul Sherman]

Pots

It is great to chase all day and then position yourself in a Hotel and await the all night Lightning show for Lightning pics, but if the area in under a Tornado watch we tend to watch the tv and a big red bleeping message keeps coming up on the bottom of the tv screen with tornado warning, we tend to have the laptop running in the Hotel room with the radar on watching for hooks etc. All fun though

Well done to Nathan for the positioning today and will be great to have him out there in 9 weeks time

Paul Sherman

Off to me bed

Edit

1st picture of the Mcclean Tornado

[Roger J Smith]

Looks like a big severe weather day tomorrow (Saturday that is) in eastern KS, eastern OK, northeast TX then into w MO and w AR-LA. Would position overnight near Tulsa for mobility in any direction but expecting best action between there and Muskogee, Fort Smith and possibly into se KS around Chanute as target areas, possible F3 tornadic cells with 110 knot winds at 500mb level indicated for 18z to 00z on progs.

[pottyprof]

Paul Sherman

Off to me bed

Lightweight..

Roger, Gorky.. You got any links to sites etc as i lost mine (3 years worth) when i reformatted.. completely forgot to backup the bookmarks.. Please..

Pretty please..

[Gorky]

I too have recently reformatted and forgot to save my favourites

I have been just googling key phrases since then to find some of the pages I used. I'll try and recompile a list and let you know them.

Out of interest. I've been following this through the night and there is one hell of a nasty lookig cell about to slam Dodge City - Kansas. Has had two confirmed tornadoes already and despite being almost over the radar site, it still looks tornadic at the moment. I hope to hell it isn't laing down a tornado at this hour.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Heres the radar image, looks interesting around Dodge City:

Think its time I went to bed now, night Gorky!

[Roger J Smith]

Most of the links you might find useful can be found on

weatherimages.org

or wximages.org

For the hourly map, go to aviation then hourly map in the upper right of the sub-menu.

For hourly data and state forecast discussions, go to "data by state" and click on the link top right on the submenu.

For doppler radars, try this site but also if the links don't work, try a basic google or yahoo type search using simply

name of site radar such as Kansas city radar

or state radar, you will probably get the choices available that way.

PM me if anything needs further explanations.

Best satellite imagery easily available is actually on weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca, same goes for maps especially upper air.

[Rustynailer]

Hi Russ,

Basically at the moment they only have 1 hour of daylight left over in the TX/OK Panhandles and the 3 storms that have fired are crapping out near to I40 (Interstate 40) But the Southern Most storm in Gray County has a TVS (Tornado Vortex Signature) which usually means it is about to produce the goods, other Convection is going up west of this system from the outflow boundaries of thses storms but these are expected to go Linear as the Jet overides the shear and moisture, basically not enough moisture was apparant and as the dryline advances eastwards the storms will line up and probably produce and overnight squall line, but thats just my take on it

Paul Sherman

sounds cool i an hooked already :lol:

I'll try a guess later today.

Russ

[pottyprof]

Cheers Roger.. :lol:

Gorky.. Someone should fill our cd drives with jam..

[Paul Sherman]

Another Moderate Risk for Today, and things should kick off earlier than yesterday, quite a complex picture, will post a target in a while but going to blow off the Moderate Risk box and go with the Slight area and target South East Kansas for the Cold Core Setup

Others please feel free to post targets for today, me and Gorky had a pretty good target area yesterday and Potty just landed his Helicopter before the light Faded yesterday

Paul Sherman

[Paul Sherman]

Okay todays Chase Target is Coffeyville (Home of the largest recorded Hailstone in US History) in Montgomery County, with Highway 160 a good east-west road and can also pick up the I44 In missouri or the I35 North-South as well.

Just woken up to pancakes with Maple syrup for breakfast

Paul Sherman

[pottyprof]

I'm going to be placing my butt in Chouteau in Mayes County, Oklahoma.. Not sure if I'm better positioned today.. Hope so..

[pottyprof]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 30

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

845 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ARKANSAS

MUCH OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA

PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA

NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 845 AM UNTIL

400 PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE

POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF

RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VERY INTENSE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 120KT MID LEVEL JET

MAX ROTATING EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS. WITH IMPRESSIVE RETURN OF GULF

MOISTURE UNDERWAY ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE

RATES...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF

TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. CURRENT INHIBITION WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN NEWD

ACROSS WATCH AREA WITH MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION.

TORNADO POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE

WATCH. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND

THERMODYNAMICS...DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BY

AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.

...HALES

latest radar..

[pottyprof]

I just remembered about the google earth experimental radar overlay if anyone wants it..

http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/geotiff/

[Roger J Smith]

Currently looks like far eastern OK and western AR as well as adjacent corners of ne TX and nw LA will be the strike zone, probably a set-up near or just west of Fort Smith on the OK-AR border would be wise at present time (which is 1050 CST) to await developments. Very good upper support, KS may get some too but triple point at present is in n.e. OK and the storm evolution suggests severe risk will translate east rather than northeast.

Already strong SW winds in the dry slot around OKC to DFW where dew points have fallen to -2 C range with temps 14-16 C, while ahead of the cold front the winds are S with typical temp/dp reports of 18/14. Blizzard conditions further west in eastern Colorado.

Energy peak with this event comes after dark around 01z when the strongest storms should be across central AR so actual damage reports may max there, but of course this is too late for video coverage especially with sunset fairly early in late Feb at about 22-23z in the central time zone. Best storm chase may turn out to be on or near the interstate between Fort Smith and Little Rock towards sunset though.

[Rustynailer]

I have just landed, at Russellville municipal airport and i have hired one of those huge American petrol guzzling SUV's.

Heading South East along highway 64.

Russell of deville.....

[kold weather]

Nice jet streak moving through the mod risk area right now according to the models cutting under a upper low. some relaly neat amount sof Helicity between 0-3kms however further south over the target area below 1.5kms it really does start to rapidly decrease and while it should be enough to get some cones down, I'm not sure if they'll be that strong IMO, though obviously any tornado can cause damage, I'd say a couple of tornadoes about if things can get going. my only concern when it comes to instalbity is that there really isn't an awful lot of cape present. It's quite minimal HOWEVER when you've got as much Helicity above 1.5kms as you have in this set-up (thanks to the frontal system Roger mentions) it becomes less of a issue and I suspec there will be supercells though tornadoes may end up being limited in terms of power. Still i don't think this will be a blockbuster by any means!

There is presently a weak cap in place over the possible target area but models indicate its weakening quite rapidly, which I suspect means that convection could become quite widespread and therefore I'd guess messy with it.

As for a target area, this time round I'm not going to mention one, because I've not looked at this set-up quite enough yet but I think the mod area from Paul's image looks about right, though personally I'd extend the mod a touch east as well.

[Gorky]

Dumas, which was hit by a tornado causing extensive damage earlier today has another very pronounced couplet bearing down on it. It could well be hit again as that couplet is as strong as the the previous one which passed through.

This is the radar as The earlier tornado hit:

And this is what is bearing down on the town now

[Paul Sherman]

Upgrade For Today to Moderate Risk and Another for tomorrow, hope its not all early again this year

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1020 AM CST WED FEB 28 2007

VALID 281630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN

AND CENTRAL MO... NRN AR AND SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST OK AND

SOUTHEAST KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND

OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY......

...SYNOPSIS...

DEEPENING COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN U.S. AS ADVERTISED

BY LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS WITH A POWERFUL 150KT POLAR JET MAX

CURRENTLY ACROSS AZ/NM DRIVING ACROSS SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. RAPID

DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW TX/OK PANHANDLE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON

WITH LOW THEN TRACKING ENEWD INTO WRN MO AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING UPPER

TROUGH BY 12Z THU.

STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY THRU THE

PERIOD WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD GULF MOISTURE NEWD. BY LATER THIS

AFTERNOON 60F DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE AS FAR N AS ERN OK/WRN AR WITH MID

50S TO SERN KS/SWRN MO. ELEVATED MIX LAYER HAS OVERSPREAD PLAINS

WHICH WILL DELAY INITIATION OF SURFACE CONVECTION UNTIL LATE

AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MID LEVEL

COOLING ARRIVE WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND EXIT REGION OF JET MAX.

...KS/OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

DRY LINE WILL SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO SERN KS DURING

AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG ERN OK. BY LATE

THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY

DEVELOP AS CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY

VICINITY KS/OK BORDER WITH STORMS THEN RAPIDLY EXPANDING ACROSS ERN

KS INTO SWRN MO. STORMS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO

SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL. IN

ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... TORNADOS WILL BE

POSSIBLE. SWD EXTENSION OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE THRU ERN OK

SHOULD OCCUR BUT IT COULD BE WELL AFTER DARK WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS

SUFFICIENTLY.

...ERN OK/MO/AR OVERNIGHT...

OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL CAP WILL ERODE MUCH OF THIS AREA E OF DRY LINE

AND AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES

TO INCREASE AND SPREAD EWD. EVEN WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO AMOUNT OF

INSTABILITY ...THE STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATICS AND VERY STRONG SHEAR

PROFILES SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING WINDS. THE IMPRESSIVE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS

POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOS OVERNIGHT.

...IL/KY/IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY

OVERNIGHT WITH GULF MOISTURE SURGING NEWD. MODEL SOUNDINGS AFTER

06Z SHOW SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF AT LEAST

LARGE HAIL ACROSS MID MS RIVER REGION. RISK COULD REACH TO WESTERN

IL/KY AND SWD TO WRN TN AND NRN MS BY 12Z

Going to Start somewhere in North East Oklahoma near to I44

Paul Sherman

[pottyprof]

I'm going not too far away in SW Missouri..

[Gorky]

I'll be parking myself on the North East side of Tulsa near Claremore hoping for some early daylight convection. If not I can follow I44 NE into Missourri for the evening light show although it may well be a case of dodging nocturnal tornadoes

[Paul Sherman]

Nathan, I think the I44 Will be a well trodden road by the US Chasers by the end of the day, and what better road taking you straight North Easterly with the Storm Motion all the way from Oklahoma to Misery!!

Potty wait for us at the Burger King on the I44 Exit and we will team up

Paul S

[pottyprof]

Does it have a helipad? Big mac?? Fries?? Did you eat all the pies??

[Paul Sherman]

Your not using that Damn Helicopter again Potty are you ??? Think of Global Warming and Carbon emissions, just jump in the 5 Litre Gas Guzzling SUV, Hell lets take 1 each and really screw our chances of Snow for Winter 07/08

Paul S