April CET

[Gray-Wolf]

With this bit of 'wet' (if you got any) and these temps I'd expect the greenery to go bonkers!

Even if we had a poor summer this time (rain and grey) I bet it would be muggy still.

Still, I am so very surprised (even from a 'doomsayers' viewpoint) to see 11*C breached. How much higher can it go before the end of the month?

[johnholmes]

looking at the 1971-2000 data shows

Average min=4.0

average max=12.3

mean=8.1

previous highest avge max was 14.7 in 1997 with 14.4 in 1987

highest min 6.6 in 1999 and 5.8 in 1993

highest previous mean=10.5 in 1999, 9.8 in 1987 and 9.7 in 1997.

so currently my mean is 3.7 above the 1971-2000 average. (avge=8.1)

Looking further back the long term mean, 1943-now, less 1996 with no data was 8.3

[johnholmes]

some further information from my data

The number of times my mean monthly temperatures have been below average since January 2000

2007 nil

2006 March by0.4

2005 nil

2003 nil

2002 October by 0.8

2001 May by 0.7, April by 0.6, Sept by 0,3, Dec by 0.8

2000 July by 0.5 with April exactly on the average 1971-2000 data

A total of 7 out of 96 months in that period.

20 months in that period exceeded the 1971-2000 average by 2 degrees or more.

Long term change or short term ‘blip’? I leave to you but nowhere in the Finningley data of over 50 years can I find such a sustained period of above average temperatures.

Since 2002 only TWO months out of 63 months(including April 2007) have been below average.

[Bottesford]

Staggering stats there John - we're in a pretty serious warm period. What comes next I wonder...

My average is 12.2c or so my *in development* weather data display system says - take a peek at: http://bottesford.no-ip.org/weather/index.php

Still working on it though! Needs some graphs, historical data, etc. yet...

[johnholmes]

coming along nicely, keep at it.

Looking at your data presentation and others on this site reminds me that mine could do with a 'facelift' although I'm not sure if its possible with the set up I've got. Time to talk to my web site designer I think

Edited April 24, 2007 by johnholmes

[Bottesford]

coming along nicely, keep at it.

Looking at your data presentation and others on this site reminds me that mine could do with a 'facelift' although I'm not sure if its possible with the set up I've got. Time to talk to my web site designer I think

Cheers!

Presentation usually takes up 50% of development time when doing software/websites. Where you both need some creative and technical skills!

If anyones interested in the process of presenting the data (and since this is written from scratch - I may make it available for others to use for their weather data eventually)....

- Use FreeWX app to log data on my 24/7 server - writes logs every 15 mins

- Grab log data and upload to server (in my case the same machine)

- Parse logs, connect to db and insert data to mysql database. Once per 15 mins

- Additionally can parse old logs to import previously logged data.

- Perform various queries on data to get what you see on screen.

Anyway bit OT there!

[Stratos Ferric]

some further information from my data

The number of times my mean monthly temperatures have been below average since January 2000

2007 nil

2006 March by0.4

2005 nil

2003 nil

2002 October by 0.8

2001 May by 0.7, April by 0.6, Sept by 0,3, Dec by 0.8

2000 July by 0.5 with April exactly on the average 1971-2000 data

A total of 7 out of 96 months in that period.

20 months in that period exceeded the 1971-2000 average by 2 degrees or more.

Long term change or short term ‘blip’? I leave to you but nowhere in the Finningley data of over 50 years can I find such a sustained period of above average temperatures.

Since 2002 only TWO months out of 63 months(including April 2007) have been below average.

Good data John. It's almost becoming the case that "below average" in the short-term actually means

'less than 1C above the thirty year mean' in order to be differentiating.

[johnholmes]

yes its all a bit baffling really.

My stats are just one set from a very small part of the overall pattern, ie the UK, within the overall N hemisphere, itself within the whole globe.

Nevertheless I do wonder if my stats are very much different from anyone else in the Uk, or indeed N Europe, excluding Russia.

How that fits in with the rest I have no idea but it does seem to show that England, indeed the UK, for whatever reason, is experiencing a period of relatively unknown warmth through the year than it has for quite a long time.

Edited April 24, 2007 by johnholmes

[Weather-history]

Warmest March-April combination was in 1961 with 9.1

That record is by no means safe. An April CET of 11.1 and it falls.

I can't believe I'm saying this, its absolutely ridiculous!

[Somerset Squall]

Warmest March-April combination was in 1961 with 9.1

That record is by no means safe. An April CET of 11.1 and it falls.

I can't believe I'm saying this, its absolutely ridiculous!

Scary! And pretty likely.

[Stratos Ferric]

Warmest March-April combination was in 1961 with 9.1

That record is by no means safe. An April CET of 11.1 and it falls.

I can't believe I'm saying this, its absolutely ridiculous!

The other point to ponder is that as and when we get a downward correction we really won't have a sure way of knowing where the floor is anymore. As a "for example", I have previously postulated that the baseline for winters now might well be 1995/6. At the time, if one were to have said "we'll never get any colder than this again", you'd have been laughed out of sight, particularly by the "nothing but cold is acceptable / desireable / possible" community. The fact is that now, even that view is outmoded. Perhaps the new 1978/9 is 2002/3? As John's data show, and my follow up was designed to elaborate, even returning to a thirty year mean for any given month is, for the time being at least, all but absolutely improbable. Across meaningful periods the term "cold" is in danger of being struck out from the dictionary / glossary of UK weather.

[Optimus Prime]

Although the 1995/1996 wasn't a particularly cold winter overall 1996 as a whole was colder than average. A generally cool November and December 2005 led into the cool conditions remaining until May (April although not cool had temperatures overall close to average) with November and December 2005, February and March 2006 being comfortably below the 71-000 average.

The only way we can get a cooldown is if we get a decently below average month (-1.0c on the average) which would usualy start a string of cool to average months. I think August 2006 was just a blip and can always happen.

[Polar Continental]

My mean for Burton currently riding high at 10.6c and that’s with some cool nights with 11 ground frosts.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Are you sure that you do not mean to say that winter 2005-06 was not a particularly cold one because 1995-96 was, and yes 1996 was a cool year. I do not know what you mean when you now start discussing Nov / Dec 2005 relating it to 1995-96.

[summer blizzard]

Hadley CET: 10.6 (up to 22nd)

I think calls for 11.5C are a little extreme, especially from the likes of Strattos Ferric , though i do think a CET of around 11.1C-11.3C is likely.

[reef]

I think calls for 11.5C are a little extreme, especially from the likes of Strattos Ferric , though i do think a CET of around 11.1C-11.3C is likely.

Not at all. The CET has actually been pinned back by the average minima which is currently 4.8°C to the 22nd (Phillip Eden). Even ONE day in the CET zone with a minima at this late point in the month of 12°C would add 0.3°C to this value. Not forgetting we have several days like this, the CET will almost certainly rise rapidly.

[Stratos Ferric]

Not at all. The CET has actually been pinned back by the average minima which is currently 4.8°C to the 22nd (Phillip Eden). Even ONE day in the CET zone with a minima at this late point in the month of 12°C would add 0.3°C to this value. Not forgetting we have several days like this, the CET will almost certainly rise rapidly.

Have to agree with Reef, SB. The month to date has been moderated only by near normal nights. We're now looking like having a run of potentially (though not definitely) much warmer nights and still very warm days. Something like 22-12 over the w/e looks entirely possible and would give daily means of 17: that would be more than 6 degrees over where we are now, and equates to 0.2-0.25C per day on the rolling average. Even with night <10 we'll still climb smartly Fri-Mon, probably by 0.5-0.6C. I'd say 11.5C certainly cannot be glibly dismissed, and might be the least of where we end up.

[Bobby]

Well, looks a certainty now that we're going to have the warmest April ever recorded.

So, in last 12 months we've had:

Warmest ever 12 month period.

Warmest ever July

Warmest ever month

Warmest ever September

Warmest ever Autumn

Warmest ever April.

As well as an almost record June, summer and winter.

Quite a run. I wonder why we never see Mondy in threads such as these.

[Weather-history]

Driest Aprils on record for England and Wales (mm)

7.1 1938

7.9 1817

9.0 1912

9.7 1957

9.9 1893

10.1 1785

10.8 1984

14.1 1854

14.3 1974

14.3 1842

15.2 1783

16.1 1954

16.6 1844

17.5 1980

19.0 1976

19.9 1855

Touch and go whether it is going to be the driest April on record for England and Wales. Very good chance, it will be the driest month of the 2000s beating August 2003 (21.3mm). There hasn't been a sub 20mm month since January 1997 (16.5mm) and a sub 10mm month since August 1995 (9.1mm).

[North-Easterly Blast]

I think you have got it wrong that we got an almost record June, it was 15.9*C, over 2*C below the record and a full degree behind the warmest of the 1900s in 1976.

You also forgot to mention that we got the 4th warmest October on record, and the 5th warmest January on record.

5th warmest summer on record

Warmest autumn on record, by a whopping 0.8*C.

5th warmest winter on record

Warmest April on record, by even almost a full degree which looks likely.

What will ever trigger a trend to some cooler conditions for the UK, no I am not saying that a return to pre 1988 weather is likely to happen well not for many years anyway, as this does look highly unlikely given the patterns that have prevailed for the last ten years in particular, but at least what will trigger a trend for the warm synoptics of the last year to abate their grip?

[The PIT]

Well our driest was 1.8mm in 1957 next 9mm in 1984. We're on 2.8mm so far this year. may get more tomorrow according to this mornings forecast.

[reef]

According to Phillip Eden's site we are now equal to the April record with a none-rounded average of 10.6°C to the 23rd. The Hadley was also running a tenth of a degree higher than the Manley to the 22nd, meaning its quite likely it is at 10.7°C now.

After an exceptionally warm day yesterday and record minima in places, including here; theres no chance of any correction now. Temperatures only look like increasing so the record could fall by a huge amount.

[Lettucing Gutted]

My bet would be that the spring record, like last autumn, will be cleared by a fair margin.

Thanks a lot polluting world. We have lost winter, autumn and spring!

[Bobby]

We still have autumn, it used to be called "winter".

[SP1986]

Thanks a lot polluting world. We have lost winter, autumn and spring!

if only those seasons where governed by climate. In part they are, but season signs are more governed by vegetation and from what I've seen Spring, Winter and Autumn still exist, although the whole of the winter just gone, supported flowering plants, which isn't so common. I remember working out the mean January temperature here and with multiple occassions where the temperature reached 15/16 or even 17C that month, the mean month came out at 8.0 which is remarkable and I think directly 3.5C above average for this area.