April CET

[summer blizzard]

Have just had a look at the figures and done some calculations..

By my calculations, the Manley CET will come out at 11.3C.

By my calculations, rainfall will definitely be 10mm<, though we may just miss the record.

By my calculations, sunshine will be 220>, so we should beat the record.

[Nick H]

Touch and go whether it is going to be the driest April on record for England and Wales. Very good chance, it will be the driest month of the 2000s beating August 2003 (21.3mm). There hasn't been a sub 20mm month since January 1997 (16.5mm) and a sub 10mm month since August 1995 (9.1mm).

It's looking very close at the moment. I think it was 5.3mm up to the 23rd, but a lot of places in the west of the CET zone have seen 2-3mm in the past 24 hrs. Hardly a spot of rain in the forecast for the remainder of the month, it just depends how far north the rain band progress in the early hours of tomorrow. Atm, it's not looking like it will be going much further than a diagonal from Sussex, then north London to north Suffolk.

[suffolkboy_]

It's looking very close at the moment. I think it was 5.3mm up to the 23rd, but a lot of places in the west of the CET zone have seen 2-3mm in the past 24 hrs. Hardly a spot of rain in the forecast for the remainder of the month, it just depends how far north the rain band progress in the early hours of tomorrow. Atm, it's not looking like it will be going much further than a diagonal from Sussex, then north London to north Suffolk.

I have only seen a few spots this month, and I mean a few spots, had one tiny shower the other morning, not even enough to wet the ground or even worthy of putting windscreen wipers on. I have still seen 0mm this month, maybe 1mm tomorrow morning? All I can hope for then is thunderstorms untill the end of the month.

[acbrixton]

The spring CET is 8.6 rounded up (Hadley UKMO average 1971-2000).

Hadley and Manley are both provisionally on 10.6 for April. Assuming 11.2 for April we would be at 9.2 for March/April exactly 2.0 above normal. An average May would give 9.9 for spring whilst a May as warm as last year (12.2) would give 10.2 for spring i.e. 1.6 above normal.

Regards

ACB

[Nick H]

I know that spring 1961 had a CET of 9.73C. Have I missed out the warmest? If so, does anyone know the warmest spring on UK record? The only other two springs that come to mind from recent memory are 1989 and 1990 but I know these were both slightly cooler than 1961.

EDIT I can answer my own question actually, 10.2C is the answer, I wasn't looking hard enough as I've just spotted it on Mr Data's Historic Weather thread! 1893 the year. Assuming a conservative estimate for this month of 11.3C, May would only need to come in at 12.3C to establish a new seasonal record.

Edited April 25, 2007 by Nick H

[Weather-history]

It's looking very close at the moment. I think it was 5.3mm up to the 23rd, but a lot of places in the west of the CET zone have seen 2-3mm in the past 24 hrs. Hardly a spot of rain in the forecast for the remainder of the month, it just depends how far north the rain band progress in the early hours of tomorrow. Atm, it's not looking like it will be going much further than a diagonal from Sussex, then north London to north Suffolk.

According to Philip's data, its not going to be the driest April on record

CET: (Apr 1-25): 10.9°C (+2.9 degC)

E&W Rain: (Apr 1-25): 11.7mm ( 23 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Apr 1-25): 180.3hr (142 per cent)

[Nick H]

According to Philip's data, its not going to be the driest April on record

CET: (Apr 1-25): 10.9°C (+2.9 degC)

E&W Rain: (Apr 1-25): 11.7mm ( 23 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Apr 1-25): 180.3hr (142 per cent)

Amazing isn't it.. I would hardly call the last three days in the CET zone wet, most of have seen just a few spots of rain. Yet the rainfall total has rocketed up from 3 per cent to 23 per cent.

[noggin]

As a CET dweller, I can confirm that we had quite a lot of rain on Monday and Tuesday. Quite a relief as I had just planted some plants.

[Weather-history]

As a CET dweller, I can confirm that we had quite a lot of rain on Monday and Tuesday. Quite a relief as I had just planted some plants.

Same in Manchester, we did get a good useful fall of rain here

Driest Aprils on record for England and Wales (mm)

7.1 1938

7.9 1817

9.0 1912

9.7 1957

9.9 1893

10.1 1785

10.8 1984

11.7 2007

14.1 1854

14.3 1974

14.3 1842

15.2 1783

16.1 1954

16.6 1844

17.5 1980

19.0 1976

19.9 1855

[Weather-history]

It will be interesting to see where this April ends up on the scale as compared to past May CETs. Taking that 10.9 value by Philip, there have been 129 Mays cooler than this

[Nick H]

It will be interesting to see where this April ends up on the scale as compared to past May CETs. Taking that 10.9 value by Philip, there have been 129 Mays cooler than this

Dear old Philip had a bit of a schocker in the CET prediction. He actually forecast a below-average month.

[Optimus Prime]

The next 4 days have an average temperature of 15.8c. So by the 30th the average temperature should be around 11.6c.

That makes it an ENORMOUS 3.7c above the 61-90 normal. Considering the last warmest April ever was just 2.6c above normal it makes at absolutely extraordinary.

[Nick H]

That makes it an ENORMOUS 3.7c above the 61-90 normal. Considering the last warmest April ever was just 2.6c above normal it makes at absolutely extraordinary.

Can't really add anything to that. Quite remarkable.

[The PIT]

If it keeps on this way I wonder how many 100F we'll record this summer.

[Anti-Mild]

If it keeps on this way I wonder how many 100F we'll record this summer.

Perhaps none!

It may be a bit unscientific but I'm sure that this unprecedented period of above average temperatures cannot last forever and there may be a cooler flip side to it and perhaps it'll happen during the summer months.

Hope not though!

[noggin]

The next 4 days have an average temperature of 15.8c. So by the 30th the average temperature should be around 11.6c.

That makes it an ENORMOUS 3.7c above the 61-90 normal. Considering the last warmest April ever was just 2.6c above normal it makes at absolutely extraordinary.

How would that compare to the 91-06 "norm"?

[damianslaw]

All i want to say is how i can't wait for April to end and for us to concentrate on the May CET watching the AprilCERT climb and climb has been very painful

[Snowly does it]

How would that compare to the 91-06 "norm"?

the ten year mean is 8.8

It will be an extraordinary finishing figure, but it actually looks more an 11.2 or 11.3 to me now.

If it keeps on this way I wonder how many 100F we'll record this summer.

Doesn't necessarily follow though - the extended warmth is exceptional but the daily records have been rare - same pattern in summer might see day after day in the 30s but nothing of the 100f ilk.

Edited April 26, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Calrissian]

If it keeps on this way I wonder how many 100F we'll record this summer.

I'd guess this will maybe occur (in the South east part of the UK) 2 or 3 times this summer, with one of those occasions producing a freak high of 105f.

If that happens, then I suggest you proceed to DEFCON 2.

Calrissian: stuck in online gaming mood.

[Gray-Wolf]

Perhaps none!

It may be a bit unscientific but I'm sure that this unprecedented period of above average temperatures cannot last forever and there may be a cooler flip side to it and perhaps it'll happen during the summer months.

Hope not though!

In the world of my childhood your observations on a 'cold to balance the warm' would've been right but in my memory of 40 years worth of weather the last 15 have been hedging ever closer to worrying conjunction with the gist of global warming. As 'warmth' moves north (average yearly isotherm) so weather 'influences' change in intensity and different patterns emerge (which were once 'freak patterns').

I believed 1976 was the summer of all summers (I was 13yrs old and was led to believe it could be the summer of a lifetime) but since the 80's ended we've had a run of summers with goodly portions that were like 76' ,and now a few summers that were better than 76'.

I have exhausted the 'it's got to flip back' hope and now grimly accept we are entering 'virgin climate territory' where we, and not sun, tilt,continental positioning, distance from sun, increased volcanism or snow field albedo are a big contributor. We know where our climate can stray (from ice age to Mediterranean in our latitude) but not how fast under these novel forcings.

You watch, sub 10*c Aug this year!!!LOL

Edited April 26, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Stu_London]

In the world of my childhood your observations on a 'cold to balance the warm' would've been right but in my memory of 40 years worth of weather the last 15 have been hedging ever closer to worrying conjunction with the gist of global warming. As 'warmth' moves north (average yearly isotherm) so weather 'influences' change in intensity and different patterns emerge (which were once 'freak patterns').

I believed 1976 was the summer of all summers (I was 13yrs old and was led to believe it could be the summer of a lifetime) but since the 80's ended we've had a run of summers with goodly portions that were like 76' ,and now a few summers that were better than 76'.

I have exhausted the 'it's got to flip back' hope and now grimly accept we are entering 'virgin climate territory' where we, and not sun, tilt,continental positioning, distance from sun, increased volcanism or snow field albedo are a big contributor. We know where our climate can stray (from ice age to Mediterranean in our latitude) but not how fast under these novel forcings.

You watch, sub 10*c Aug this year!!!LOL

Which summer was better than 76?

I know last year was on course but didn't August scupper that.

There have been hotter months than those in 76 but not all three together if I recall correctly?

[Gray-Wolf]

Which summer was better than 76?

I know last year was on course but didn't August scupper that.

There have been hotter months than those in 76 but not all three together if I recall correctly?

For me 2003 was a long hot summer (longer than 76' in my area) and last years was also a corker when you consider the long ,undisturbed spells of hot sun. I remember a few other 'portions' of summers that also matched 76'. And of course we have this coming summer.......but more of that in sept!!!LOL

[noggin]

Which summer was better than 76?

I know last year was on course but didn't August scupper that.

There have been hotter months than those in 76 but not all three together if I recall correctly?

Remember it well. My arm was in plaster....very uncomfortable! Was not 75 also a corker? Mind you, man-made global warming had not been invented back then....we were all to busy prophesying some other gloom and doom. Can't for the life of me remember what it was though....... B)

[Kentish Man]

Remember it well. My arm was in plaster....very uncomfortable! Was not 75 also a corker? Mind you, man-made global warming had not been invented back then....we were all to busy prophesying some other gloom and doom. Can't for the life of me remember what it was though....... B)

Probably nuclear obliteration or some such. Anyway Philip Eden's April CET still 10.9C (1st - 26th)

[jemtom]

Back on topic - looks to me as if rather persistent low cloud both today and across the weekend may keep the CET a little lower than predicted.