April CET

[Roger J Smith]

I accept that temperatures have warmed significantly in Eurasia, so I wouldn't advise anyone to waste too much of their valuable time trying to explain this fact to me. My only objection is that I don't think it is primarily due to greenhouse gases, but rather it is a natural variation in progress.

The objection to my illustration of 1916-1921 in eastern North America is somewhat obscure to me -- what was happening in Europe matters only as much as what is happening now in North America relative to your current warming. What is happening here and now is that highly variable regimes of above and normal temperatures are continuing much as before with the constant claim of temperatures edging upwards, but that strikes me as contrived since we are not breaking any unusual numbers of daily records at long-term stations. I have always suspected that some of the data in the "ever-increasing" global grid are subject to local nocturnal warming in turn due to expansion of urban heat islands. I know that the local benchmark, YVR, is subject to that, but daytime temperatures there are probably much as they were in the most untouched years early in the period of record.

But in any case, I have a strong suspicion that the warming now underway in Eurasia correlates very well with the recent drift of the North Magnetic Pole to a position further north and west than in previous decades. I realize that my developing theory is not widely accepted, but one of the main points within that theory is that the hemispheric circulations are distorted by the magnetic field so that the meteorological north pole will be found close to the NMP. If that feature drifts northwest well away from Europe, then the mean flow across Europe should lift in a northwesterly direction so that what was normally experienced in southern France would migrate towards southern England. And that seems to be what's going on since about 1990 or so, in irregular bursts.

Since the NMP is apparently drifting rather quickly now, and given that there has been no definitive update of its position since early 2005, the evolution of this over time may well be a prolonged warming (and drying) of the European climate but an eventual cooling of eastern Asia. The wild card in that theoretical approach is the intensity of the magnetic field, which is widely believed to be decreasing. As I have no reliable data for periods of much weaker magnetic fields, but the general theory in the field is for irregular climate variations, I don't really have a clear idea what a very weak magnetic field might produce in terms of regional anomalies. I would assume the flow would become more circumpolar and this would probably not vastly change the warming achieved since 1990 if it were to be the next phase.

So, somewhat frustrating given the overall debate, my theoretical perspective also predicts a long warming trend that has no particular end in sight unless the NMP accelerates past the pole and arrives in the vicinity of northeastern Europe in 20-30 years, which seems unlikely but not impossible. In that case, I would predict a shift to a more northwesterly mean upper flow and a significant cooling of Europe. But that is more likely to be 100-200 years from now in this analysis, than 20-30 years from now.

But I do suspect also that embedded in this long-term warming is a more robust short-term warming that is now peaking and should therefore yield to a short-term cooling back to some lower values as I speculated earlier. I think we have all agreed that nobody can say for certain, and I don't even claim to have much assurance about it at all, but from a statistical point of view I would think the chances are probably 50-50 of significant cooling from these levels some time between early 2008 and late 2009. When people say here that we must accept it will now always be warm like it has been in the past twelve months, that strikes me as almost self-negating on logical grounds alone, as it was not anywhere near this warm for the twelve months before these twelve months, and nothing dramatic has happened between the two "years" in question. It makes no more sense to me than if a blackjack player said, "I just got a blackjack, now I am going to get nothing but as long as I stay here."

Of course, that is why players "stay there."

[Stratos Ferric]

Yes, you're quite right; I misquoted you. Sorry. I'm sure I read it and I'm sure it was you, but you know what, I can't find it anywhere now. Serves me right, I guess.

I do not quite suscribe to the lack of similarity between the weather and the markets; I think, although what you say is true, it misguides the reader to believing they are not the same in many respects. In fact their fundamental nature is non-linear; they can both be analysed using the same techniques; predictability falls dramatically as time rolls on by.

BTW What immutable laws of physics bind the weather? I thought that at it lowest level (quantum mechanics) the description of physics was statistical in nature. Many years ago, those who were into statistics, were called statists, as this particular branch of mathematics was derived from the notion that, following Newton's incredible success in deterministically describing the universe, a lot of people thought that they called do the same with society, and the state This branch of mathematics eventually prescribed and influenced Adam Smith in his seminal work 'The Wealth of Nations' which describes society under the mechanics of a market economy - it was all derived from the (misguided) wish to irreducibly break the rules of society into the some deterministic scientific fashion.

Sorry for the History 101.

I'm generalising, but meteorology is in essence fluid dynamics. All other things being equal if all the inputs in one situation were the same as in another the outcomes would be the same. The fact that this never happens is simply down to incalculable complexity meaning that the inputs NEVER are all the same. In markets the same inputs would not lead to the same outputs, because behaviour comes into it, and this latter is never constant.

I agree with what I assume to be your general point, however, regarding the use of past performance to indicate the future. Stats stands us in reasonable stead in making forward projections in the weather, but no more than that. Lurches from hot to cold and v.v. are not at all unusual. The thing that I'd argue legislates against it at present is that the fundamentals make it highly unlikely. Too many of the big inputs in the system are pointed at warm just now, irrespective of the behaviour of the myriad little ones that we don't fully understand or cannot fully compute.

[VillagePlank]

I'm generalising, but meteorology is in essence fluid dynamics. All other things being equal if all the inputs in one situation were the same as in another the outcomes would be the same. The fact that this never happens is simply down to incalculable complexity meaning that the inputs NEVER are all the same. In markets the same inputs would not lead to the same outputs, because behaviour comes into it, and this latter is never constant.

I am aware of the principles of chaos theory (sounds like a cliche, though, these days!) We can talk about sampling rates, we can talk about combinatorics, we can talk about the problem being NP complete; but I suspect this would bore the pants of many readers of this thread (being a light-hearted CET guess thread) so by reason of brevity, the notion of systematically solving the worlds weather (the current approach) cannot (as you say) be solved deterministically because it is governed by non-deterministic polynomial time. But, I believe, it can be solved heuristically (so approaching O(n) time); that is we can anneal the data in such a fashion that we get a good result, say 98% good, but not necessarily the best result - but still good enough. Statistics is a part of that, but it's not the sole indicator (you'd certainly average gradients over different sample sizes, for instance)

I agree with what I assume to be your general point, however, regarding the use of past performance to indicate the future. Stats stands us in reasonable stead in making forward projections in the weather, but no more than that. Lurches from hot to cold and v.v. are not at all unusual. The thing that I'd argue legislates against it at present is that the fundamentals make it highly unlikely. Too many of the big inputs in the system are pointed at warm just now, irrespective of the behaviour of the myriad little ones that we don't fully understand or cannot fully compute.

Carrying on the market analogy: yes, the fundamentals do make it unlikely, but I think it is worth applying a little technical analysis magic to this, too. When one looks at a chart - say the CET chart the complete sum of whatever that chart is saying is before you. I've used this approach - not the heuristic approach described above, but simple technical analysis, with my CET guesswork, and I don't think I've done too bad. I think I've certainly been on the right side of the median, I think. I must admit to applying a little GW factor (which shall remain a secret, of course) but apart from that my guesses are derived solely from the data (I realised I was a given f(x) away from the actual so solved f(x) to find the 'GW' factor - it might not even be a GW factor, but it is certainly a factor that my technique is clearly 'out' by)

I suppose the proof is in the pudding, so my reasonable 3 months this year will probably turn out to be a good 3 months, and a terrible 9 months!! I guess we shall just wait and see.

Edited April 23, 2007 by VillagePlank

[Joneseye]

I must admit to applying a little GW factor (which shall remain a secret, of course) but apart from that my guesses are derived solely from the data (I realised I was a given f(x) away from the actual so solved f(x) to find the 'GW' factor - it might not even be a GW factor, but it is certainly a factor that my technique is clearly 'out' by)

I suppose the proof is in the pudding, so my reasonable 3 months this year will probably turn out to be a good 3 months, and a terrible 9 months!! I guess we shall just wait and see.

Some really fascinating debate on this thread, particularly today.

I have been applying a little of that GW factor in my guesses this year and they have worked out ok (ish). Alas, this month I should have added nearly 3 times as much GW factor! This really is turning into a remarkable month.

[The PIT]

Well my April CET is wrong becuase I looked at the wrong month. Doh. Then it was too late to correct it.

Edited April 23, 2007 by The PIT

[Paul]

Back before Xmas we were experimenting with a CFS based CET prediction system (which we hope to have running properly sometime this year) and it came out with a forecast CET of 11.76 for April. I wonder how close to the mark that will be!

[Don]

Back before Xmas we were experimenting with a CFS based CET prediction system (which we hope to have running properly sometime this year) and it came out with a forecast CET of 11.76 for April. I wonder how close to the mark that will be!

I don't think it will be far off the mark!

[Bobby]

The thing is, did you (I know plenty of people that did), said the same thing 'if we have another...' in 2003.

Its 2007, our spring has been off the scale.

I just keep seeing this 'if we have another' comments a lot lately. We've had a strong 15+ year increase in temps for the UK, how many more do you need to convince you? 5, 10 , 50 ? Anyway, thats for a seperate topic I guess, over in environmental.

Calrissian: every time he has another...an angel gets their wings.

As I said, I don't deny the Earth is warming and people are the cause, just don't believe that the last 12 months means we have entered some kind of new phase in the last year, which I don't think we have.

[Stratos Ferric]

Well my April CET is wrong becuase I looked at the wrong month. Doh. Then it was too late to correct it.

I'm looking forward to reading one or two other even more creative excuses then.

[Stu_London]

Let's not go looking for spurious arguments to play down the current run of warmth, and as JH points out, exceptional warmth. The fact is things are not as they should be.

I don't think the argument was spurious - there has been a definate link between the CET of spring/summer/autumn months being influenced by extremely sunny months, notably in 2003 and 2006 and again this month.

TM's and JH's subsequent posts speculate that warming may have driven sypnotics to change which is an interesting problem, the solution to which will become clearer over the next few years.

And whilst I am not looking to down play the statistics of the last year or so, which have indeed been spectular and unprecented, it would be wrong to paint the impression that the global climate is changing as fast which the tone, if not the content, of some posts imply.

Edited April 23, 2007 by Stu_London

[The PIT]

I'm looking forward to reading one or two other even more creative excuses then.

At least I played fair and didn't plead to change it later. Also my comment 8.5c another mild un doesn't tie up at the time either.

I believe the climate is warming mainly natural albeit with a small input from man. A smaller input than suggested by many. I also wonder if the climate has done a sudden lurch upwards but only Global temps measurements could prove that.

[mk13]

My punt of 10.1C looks astonishingly too low!

[Paul]

The tracker has hit 11c

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=cet;sess=

[Snowly does it]

The tracker has hit 11c

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=cet;sess=

Something very ominous about that. You're giving me chills Paul!

11 plus now about as certain as you can get in meteorology, in fact Manley rose by 0.2 yesterday which I find very curious, wasn't THAT warm comparitive to the established average to date.

Can someone confirm the Spring record for me please?

[Bottesford]

Something very ominous about that. You're giving me chills Paul!

11 plus now about as certain as you can get in meteorology, in fact Manley rose by 0.2 yesterday which I find very curious, wasn't THAT warm comparitive to the established average to date.

Can someone confirm the Spring record for me please?

Yep - 10.2c.

List of warmest springs:

[Stu_London]

Assuming we finish around 11.3C, the threshold for May for a record spring is 12.1C

May average has exceeded this figure 9 times in the last 30 years, however all of those occasions have been since 1989 and six have been in the last ten years.

The rolling ten year average is 12.2C, however the rolling 5 year average is only 11.9C.

Based on those stats, I would say a record for spring is slightly odds against, however with so much warmth around so far this april, I would rather be a layer than a player

[Snowly does it]

Yep - 10.2c.

Thanks

I'd say it looks fairly likely now, would take a relatively cool May in comparison to the last few months to avoid a record Spring.

[Stratos Ferric]

Assuming we finish around 11.3C, the threshold for May for a record spring is 12.1C

May average has exceeded this figure 9 times in the last 30 years, however all of those occasions have been since 1989 and six have been in the last ten years.

The rolling ten year average is 12.2C, however the rolling 5 year average is only 11.9C.

Based on those stats, I would say a record for spring is slightly odds against, however with so much warmth around so far this april, I would rather be a layer than a player

I'd say it's odds on. April should come in well above 11. By the weekend the 850 temps are up where the surface should be. I'd reckon 11.5 at the very least this month. For May to come in below 12 there's going to have be some sustained cool weather: with HP nearby that's not likely. My bet would be that the spring record, like last autumn, will be cleared by a fair margin.

I don't think the argument was spurious - there has been a definate link between the CET of spring/summer/autumn months being influenced by extremely sunny months, notably in 2003 and 2006 and again this month.

TM's and JH's subsequent posts speculate that warming may have driven sypnotics to change which is an interesting problem, the solution to which will become clearer over the next few years.

And whilst I am not looking to down play the statistics of the last year or so, which have indeed been spectular and unprecented, it would be wrong to paint the impression that the global climate is changing as fast which the tone, if not the content, of some posts imply.

I'm not quite sure precisely what your logic is Stu, but my point is that a sunny month in the modern climate is invariably also warm, which is pretty much what you'd expect particularly in summer. I'm not sure that looking at sunshine figures tells us anything other than that HP was in charge. I don't see sunshine as the driver: sunshine is just a consequence of the synoptics.

Not sure anyone is saying the global climate is changing quickly; there's certainly as many posts in here suggesting that the UK is absolutely anomalous. The prudent line to take is certainly to have a proper "heads up" and check what's going on elsewhere. If this were being replicated elsewhere then we'd have cause to be worried; not looking is hardly a prudent act.

[Stu_London]

I'd say it's odds on. April should come in well above 11. By the weekend the 850 temps are up where the surface should be. I'd reckon 11.5 at the very least this month. For May to come in below 12 there's going to have be some sustained cool weather: with HP nearby that's not likely. My bet would be that the spring record, like last autumn, will be cleared by a fair margin.

I agree it is odds on and would take a significant cool spell in May (compared to what we are used to in recent history) to avoid a record spring.

To break the record by 0.7C, a la Autumn 2006, would need May to be somewhere around 14C depending on where April ends up.

The record for May is a little freakish to say the least with 15.1C being recorded in 1833 and the next highest level being 13.9C, fifteen years later - a statistic that in itself gives a straw to clutch at for those such as myself, who think (perhaps wishfully) that the recent record breaking marks set could largely be down to natural cycles (sunspots, El nino, decadal SSTs, recurring sypnotic patterns, etc) happening to all contribute at the same time to warming of this part of the world and in a few years the temps being set now will be big outliers on the statistical map.

[Stratos Ferric]

I agree it is odds on and would take a significant cool spell in May (compared to what we are used to in recent history) to avoid a record spring.

To break the record by 0.7C, a la Autumn 2006, would need May to be somewhere around 14C depending on where April ends up.

The record for May is a little freakish to say the least with 15.1C being recorded in 1833 and the next highest level being 13.9C, fifteen years later - a statistic that in itself gives a straw to clutch at for those such as myself, who think (perhaps wishfully) that the recent record breaking marks set could largely be down to natural cycles (sunspots, El nino, decadal SSTs, recurring sypnotic patterns, etc) happening to all contribute at the same time to warming of this part of the world and in a few years the temps being set now will be big outliers on the statistical map.

They may turn out to be outliers, but I doubt it; I doubt it very much. It's more likely that in ten years' time we'll look back and today's peaks will be mere foothills. Previous "blips" have come from lower bases, and have either not been year around or else not of the current longevity of this general warm run.

[SP1986]

They may turn out to be outliers, but I doubt it; I doubt it very much. It's more likely that in ten years' time we'll look back and today's peaks will be mere foothills. Previous "blips" have come from lower bases, and have either not been year around or else not of the current longevity of this general warm run.

Well temperatures in April at midnight that are higher than the daily average maximum in June, goes someway to hinting this may be the case. The temperatures today in rain reached just under 18C which frankly for summer is (was) quite something, but in Spring is phenomenal, especially given the atmsophere at 850 decameters isn't overly warm!

[Don]

Out of all the warm months we've had during the last year, I think this April could turn out to be the most exceptional of the lot. It just feels so Summery!

[Calrissian]

...thats because it IS summer.

Summer in the 21'st century now runs from mid April to around mid October.

Enjoy it for what it is.

Calrissian: another warm night

[Weather-history]

Hadley CET: 10.6 (up to 22nd)

[johnholmes]

mean temp here is at 11.8C, must check the stats back to 1943 to see how this compares to other April's