April CET

[reef]

We look odds on for a record warm April now I would say. So far this month the relatively lower minima have prevented the record CET barrier being breached. There looks to be a correction to this next week as we pick up a warm and moist south-westerly flow giving temperatures by day up to the low 20s and no lower than 11-13°C in many areas overnight. Those values in themselves give averages of 15+°C! So its hard to see how the CET can do anything but continue upwards. Thats without mentioning the cooler interlude this week, temperatures still look above average in the CET zone even during this.

[PersianPaladin]

Well my 9C CET prediction was based on signals of a mid-month cooling (from 17th April onwards) which was suggested at by the NOAA ensembles...however, it seems that not only will the main incursion miss us, but the ridge extension over western Europe has turned out to be much more extensive than I thought and therefore any colder air getting to our shores likely diverted northward. In other words....my prediction is f*****.

[Calrissian]

Hi Folks

I have never entered the debate on global warming and I do not intend to start now, but above there is an interesting statement, namely the possibility that cleaning up the atmosphere is now actually accelerating the warming, if this gathered momentum then where would we be

...we'd be living on the equivilent of Earth's sister planet.....Venus.

I heard its kinda hot there :lol:

--

With another relatively warm day today, one which was posited to be the 'cooling off', an April CET of 11 or more...its looking pretty good now. The rest of this week will be fine, that takes us to around 23 or so, and there seems little to knock back the average. In fact, there is no indication in my view that the CET for this month will not stop rising right until the end of the month.

*as for Global brightening (as it seems to be now), yep, its all going to contribute to the 'Jump' I have foreseen.

Calrissian: almost ready for Jack Bauer

[damianslaw]

Yes, it looks as if we are highly likely now to record a record CET for this month. The change to a mild south westerly will scupper chances of recording low minima, so although daytime maxima at least for the next week will not be naywhere enar what they have been the last week or so, the nightime minima will be.

[Bobby]

Shows how far we've come when the possibility of a record warm month doesn't even raise an eyebrow from me. Has become routine these last 12 months.

[Bottesford]

Not convinced the record will fall but certainly on for one of the warmest, driest & sunniest April on record. How can May follow that?

[Calrissian]

Hmm, well, if May is blazingly 'hot', as in 25c for a fair few days, then the global warming doomsters (myself included) will be fully justified in suggesting its 'game over'.

Yes though, I see your point, after what will be a very summer like April, May will have to be pretty shockingly good to surprise people any more than they are already.

*BTW, what is the typical CET for May, anyone have a nice link for me please to refer to in future ?

Calrissian: time for 24

[SP1986]

Hmm, well, if May is blazingly 'hot', as in 25c for a fair few days, then the global warming doomsters (myself included) will be fully justified in suggesting its 'game over'.

Yes though, I see your point, after what will be a very summer like April, May will have to be pretty shockingly good to surprise people any more than they are already.

*BTW, what is the typical CET for May, anyone have a nice link for me please to refer to in future ?

Calrissian: time for 24

I think the average CET for May is about 11.1 to 11.4°C. Seeing as we seem to be running above that sometimes 12°C

[Roger J Smith]

Don't think that global dimming argument ever received much endorsement from serious investigators, even the ones I don't agree with on global warming. The particulate haze tends to be transported fairly rapidly to higher latitudes where its impact on ambient temperature could be more positive than negative for a variety of reasons. The main reason is that the sooty deposits land on the arctic ice and cause a lower albedo and faster melt rate. This is actually more plausible as the cause of shrinking ice coverage in the western arctic basin than actual changes in temperature.

As for the dreaded "US/Canadian particulate cloud" -- you can have it, we're getting loads from upstream ourselves. In fact most of what gets through to you is probably what started out in eastern Asia.

I suppose Murphy's law applied to global climate would predict this outcome -- the earth will become almost intolerably green, people will live in huts and ride bicycles to work, and the next ice age will promptly set in, complete with pristine atmospheric clarity.

[kold weather]

We are probably already running a little above the Mat average and we still have some warming to go in Europe before we get to where we can get those really high values like we can in Mid-Late May, If the pattern stays the same as progged then we may well come fairly close to the record this month, I wonder just what we will need from now on in to get a record for April.

As for May, my yearly punt in late Jan was about 12.7C, i'll keep that though I suspect ther emay well be a chang ein pattern to cooler type (NOT cold though, just more seasonal.) of easterlies at one point, much like 1995

[The PIT]

I suppose Murphy's law applied to global climate would predict this outcome -- the earth will become almost intolerably green, people will live in huts and ride bicycles to work, and the next ice age will promptly set in, complete with pristine atmospheric clarity.

At least we'd get some decent Snowfall again.

[Snowly does it]

Much more of this and we might have to start passing some fairly draconic laws and lock up the wasteful, the supermarket shoppers, the Chelsea Tractor fan club, those types.

'We didn't know!' tough, rot in jail world killers

Seriously, this is getting beyond a joke.... a HP dominated scene pushes the CET up towards the record and then as if by magic it switches to about the only pattern that guarantees a record - cloudy and muggy SWrly draw! Taking the mickey isn't it?

3rd record month in the space of 9 months alongside a record season and a 5th place season and (fill in the blanks) for Spring.

Something is seriously wrong here and I predict we will start hearing from 'Dr Crazy' on the news soon, followed within a couple of months by 'Dr Respected' and 'Dr Oh My God Its Too Late'

[Calrissian]

I personally suspect it might be the work of Dr. Evil.... aka Al Gore.

--

Anyway, another fine day in London city, another step towards the 11+ CET - for both April & 2007 as a whole.

Calrissian: watching cars crash on the A41.

[Roger J Smith]

Roger J Smith: would love just one above normal day, let alone a whole month of them

[Nick F]

Much more of this and we might have to start passing some fairly draconic laws and lock up the wasteful, the supermarket shoppers, the Chelsea Tractor fan club, those types.

'We didn't know!' tough, rot in jail world killers

Seriously, this is getting beyond a joke.... a HP dominated scene pushes the CET up towards the record and then as if by magic it switches to about the only pattern that guarantees a record - cloudy and muggy SWrly draw! Taking the mickey isn't it?

Is quite frightening isn't it? This long run of above average temps. April is traditionally one of the drier months of the year, due to the Atlantic jet often tending to weaken mid-spring in favour of blocking. However, day maxes above the mid-teens and often above 20C for a protracted period over England in April without a whiff of arctic maritime air is quite something - but something we may have to get used to in a longer 'Summer' season which seems to stretch without pause for below averageness from late March until late October.

There's been banter at work about the recent TV reports mentioning that we will be in for another long hot summer with temps hitting the mid 30s in July/August, and the general consensus (apart from me) is that it will be a great thing, being able to have bbq's, eat al fresco and drive open top cars around when we want, etc, - something that used to be the preserve of Southern European climates most the time in summer until the Nern European climate started to have reliable summers of protracted heat and dryness in recent years.

Heat and dryness every summer is not what you read as the cool temperate climate zone depicted as where the UK resides in in geography textbooks, perhaps it'll soon be time to re-draw those climate zones?

[Bottesford]

On the subject of breaking records - I know we're on for a very dry, sunny & warm April but does anyone know if a) its possible to break any records and what we'd need to achieve this.

- Warmest needs to break 10.6c (1896) - possible?

- Driest needs to be less than ~7mm(?) - possible?

- Sunniest needs?

[Snowly does it]

Heat and dryness every summer is not what you read as the cool temperate climate zone depicted as where the UK resides in in geography textbooks, perhaps it'll soon be time to re-draw those climate zones?

Yes what concerns me is the impact this will have - OK, a meditteranean climate won't hurt us too much here in theshort term but what does the climate shift do to the planet as a whole? And whence from there? Too fast, too unpredictable and too much, I am genuinely rather scared by this and really hope we have something approaching normal soon just to remind us we CAN or at least prove we are not quite yet in Calrissians 'Jump'

Bottesford - somewhere around 11 per day from here will take the record, easily achievable if the GFS runs of late come off and minima hold up towards high single/10s. Not sure re dryness etc but if we get no rain twixt now and the 30th it will go!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Have humans landed on Triton, Jupiter, Mars and Pluto? I think Astronomers have seen gas guzzling yanks driving cabriolets around as GW sets in on these planets. Poor martians will be annoyed with this non green behaviour

Back to the here and now...at last it feels fresher outside...god I wished I had second home in the nor'east US. SNOW, HEAVY RAIN biting winds. Looks entirely plausible that favourite that double figures will be comfortably reached. I'm already sunburned....bloody ridiculous this early, it won't be long before I'm covering up in December not from the cold but to protect against sunburn!

BFTP

[Nick F]

On the subject of breaking records - I know we're on for a very dry, sunny & warm April but does anyone know if a) its possible to break any records and what we'd need to achieve this.

- Warmest needs to break 10.6c (1896) - possible?

- Driest needs to be less than ~7mm(?) - possible?

- Sunniest needs?

It was 1865 that had the warmest CET of 10.6C? :

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

Think the driest April since 1766 over England and Wales was in 1938 with just 7.1mm, though locally in the South of England there was no measurable rain recorded in 1893, at Mile End in London it didn't rain at all between 4 March and 15th May, 73 consecutive days. This month it's looking v. possible over England at least.

Not sure about sunniest record, April 1893 had double the normal sunshine, The E&W Sunshine Areal series since 1929 has April 1984 as the sunniest - with 217.5 hrs of sunshine compared to the 71/00 average of 145.6 hrs:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ser...stics/ewsun.txt

Were already on 118hrs according to Philip Eden's site.

The triple Whammy for England and Wales?

[reef]

Going by the Min/Max temperatures on the GFS 12z (which often under-read aswell) I make the average CET around 11.1°C by months end. If this run came off, we wouldnt only beat the record, we would surpass it by half a degree. Definitely worrying and more evidence that the climate has taken another step-change akin to 1988.

[Calrissian]

Yes, 11c CET for April seems the likely outcome. Everything points to it, there is very little to make me think otherwise -despite it being April, when even I would expect a lot of changable conditions at times.

The clearly above trend Jump of 0.5c or more is exactly what I'd flag up as being an initial indication that things are accelerating. I look forward to reading people's views once this groundbreaking month ends.

Calrissian: his board is Green.

[Bottesford]

It was 1865 that had the warmest CET of 10.6C? :

Now I remember why rubbish sleep + beer + work is not so good for the brain! Did get me scared my CET software was wrong for a moment there though...

Cheers for the stats - even if we don't break those records the temperature one is certainly concerning. Getting 3 months in a single 12 month period as the warmest ever?

Were already on 118hrs according to Philip Eden's site.

And that was only up to the 15th. Been two more days of fairly sunny weather (depending on your location) since. BBC outlook for 5 days shows 5 Sun's in a row so definitely possible.

[Stratos Ferric]

On the subject of breaking records - I know we're on for a very dry, sunny & warm April but does anyone know if a) its possible to break any records and what we'd need to achieve this.

- Warmest needs to break 10.6c (1896) - possible?

- Driest needs to be less than ~7mm(?) - possible?

- Sunniest needs?

We could actually break all three in the one month: a rare feat, though in a way the three components might be expected to align well in a summer-half month.

From here we only need about 10.85 per day to bag the temperature record. It's going to be close but if the charts don't change much (and, let's be honest, when did actual cold last dramatically appear out of the blue) then I still think we'll bag it: high 10s look likely. I'd be surprised if the precipitation record went; we may well get something frontal towards the month's end, but even so the odds on this one falling are probably fairly short: say 5-1 or so.

[Gray-Wolf]

If the latest GFS pans out (with higher night-time max's) then we will be back in the 2.5-30*c above the 71-2000 figures. Quite disquieting really.

[Weather-history]

Driest April on record for England and Wales was April 1938 with 7.1mm

Rainfall trackometer for April 1938 (mm)

1. 0.2

2. 3.1

3. 3.2

4. 3.6

5. 3.7

6. 3.7

7. 3.7

8. 3.7

9. 3.7

10. 3.7

11. 3.7

12. 3.7

13. 3.7

14. 3.7

15. 3.7

16. 3.7

17. 3.7

18. 3.9

19. 3.9

20. 3.9

21. 4.0

22. 4.4

23. 4.8

24. 5.1

25. 5.3

26. 5.3

27. 5.4

28. 5.5

29. 6.2

30. 7.1

One interesting thing to note is that April of 1938 had a CET of 7.6. March 1938 had a CET of 9.1 and was also a very dry month for England and Wales, a drop of 1.5C from one month to the next.

Edited April 18, 2007 by Mr_Data