April CET

[Stratos Ferric]

Nope....it's called sticking by your guns. All this chopping and changing (even after the month begins) makes a guess look less educated and more on the whim.

Indeed, though I wasn't aware that anybody had actually changed after the start of the month (though one or two might have been well served by doing so).

[Weather-history]

Driest Aprils on record for England and Wales (mm)

7.1 1938

7.9 1817

9.0 1912

9.7 1957

9.9 1893

10.1 1785

10.8 1984

14.1 1854

14.3 1974

14.3 1842

15.2 1783

16.1 1954

16.6 1844

17.5 1980

19.0 1976

19.9 1855

[Great Plum]

Indeed, though I wasn't aware that anybody had actually changed after the start of the month (though one or two might have been well served by doing so).

Hmm, I think it would be useful if I was able to change my CET... it seems that gut feeling (which invariably pitches lower) is not often right!

[Kentish Man]

What is the all-time record April CET? At the very least the 1987 record of 10.3C is under serious threat.

[Optimus Prime]

10.5c is the record.

[Stratos Ferric]

Hmm, I think it would be useful if I was able to change my CET... it seems that gut feeling (which invariably pitches lower) is not often right!

You can, but I think Jack-o will have 160 points off you for the privilege.

[J10]

You can, but I think Jack-o will have 160 points off you for the privilege.

:unsure:

I think 3 days is the limit.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I seem to recall that when I made that very point during the autumn BFTP, or was it AFF, took great exception. However, since we haven't seen its relative like for eleven years I think it's game, set, and point well made.

Not me old chap :unsure:

BFTP

[Stratos Ferric]

Well, here's my mid-month take on the outlook for CET, and it's...scary! Don't look if you punted low, April 2007 is turning into July 2006, almost literally.

On the basis of this projection the record for April is likely to be broken! On the three previous occasions on which I've provided a mid-month projection the outturn has landed in bounds, or, in the case of January, a smidge above. We're going to need a dramatically poor performance by GFS on the upside for the record not to fall, and perhaps even to be smashed.

The late month drop-off indicated by the model a week or so ago has been replaced by largely balmy tropical airflow. That keeps day time temps up and puts the mockers on low minima overnight.

Not me old chap :unsure:

BFTP

AFF it was then, but we all know that he holds no store by this GW nonsense.

Edited April 16, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[Snowly does it]

Well, here's my mid-month take on the outlook for CET, and it's...scary! Don't look if you punted low, April 2007 is turning into July 2006, almost literally.

On the basis of this projection the record for April is likely to be broken! On the three previous occasions on which I've provided a mid-month projection the outturn has landed in bounds, or, in the case of January, a smidge above. We're going to need a dramatically poor performance by GFS on the upside for the record not to fall, and perhaps even to be smashed.

Well, we'll see I guess! Can't see it happening myself with the relatively low maxima from here on in (relatively!) the minima seem overdone later on in the run as they often are in the low res part.

However, I stand to be shown as incorrect but as of now I'd say 9.5-10.0 tops looks a more likely final outturn

10.5c is the record.

10.6 in 1865 is the record

Edited April 16, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Stratos Ferric]

Well, we'll see I guess! Can't see it happening myself with the relatively low maxima from here on in (relatively!) the minima seem overdone later on in the run as they often are in the low res part.

However, I stand to be shown as incorrect but as of now I'd say 9.5-10.0 tops looks a more likely final outturn

10.6 in 1865 is the record

I don't ever use the GFS 2m or max-min data: I work back from the 850 projections to surface, which requires some judgement on my part re likely weather / cloud conditions. Accepting the run as given there's little downward anywhere, most of what there is is upside, particularly later on. Remember, the month is a warming month, with the average norm moving from about 7 to 9 by the month's end. Given that we're likely to be around 10.4 by tomorrow the month could afford to cool markedly from where it has been for the last few days, and still maintain a +10 level. When I think back to the numberof occasions we've discussed these close finishes over the past 6-7 months SM I have to say most of those that have landed have come from much further back in the pack than April will have to, and on ground that was less forgiving. From here, right now, I'd say it's about 2-1 the record falls, and I'm only saying that because the model could yet swing cooler (though I doubt it will). It's about 5-1 on a +10 finish, and that's not roundd either, that's 10.00 or higher, for the avoidance of doubt.

[Snowly does it]

I don't ever use the GFS 2m or max-min data: I work back from the 850 projections to surface, which requires some judgement on my part re likely weather / cloud conditions. Accepting the run as given there's little downward anywhere, most of what there is is upside, particularly later on. Remember, the month is a warming month, with the average norm moving from about 7 to 9 by the month's end. Given that we're likely to be around 10.4 by tomorrow the month could afford to cool markedly from where it has been for the last few days, and still maintain a +10 level. When I think back to the numberof occasions we've discussed these close finishes over the past 6-7 months SM I have to say most of those that have landed have come from much further back in the pack than April will have to, and on ground that was less forgiving. From here, right now, I'd say it's about 2-1 the record falls, and I'm only saying that because the model could yet swing cooler (though I doubt it will). It's about 5-1 on a +10 finish, and that's not roundd either, that's 10.00 or higher, for the avoidance of doubt.

Yeah I am not sure where our divergence comes from this month but we are usually very close in our estimations by this stage. The 850s really don't appear to be above 5 much and if its clear enough for sun allowing 18-20 'in favoured spots' then it might allow for frosts on the downside, if its cloudy, maxima will be disappointing... Thats how I read it and that won't give us the record. It needs to be 11.2 per day from here to take it - thats above and beyond even allowing for a warming month.

Probably best you come back to me and demand an apology on the 22nd or 23rd by which point I think I will see this more clearly, right now I think you are being gung ho, and I am struggling to see the wood for the trees perhaps.

Its also possible I am clinging on for dear life to the hope that we are not 30 years further down the line than I had thought.

[Stratos Ferric]

Yeah I am not sure where our divergence comes from this month but we are usually very close in our estimations by this stage. The 850s really don't appear to be above 5 much and if its clear enough for sun allowing 18-20 'in favoured spots' then it might allow for frosts on the downside, if its cloudy, maxima will be disappointing... Thats how I read it and that won't give us the record. It needs to be 11.2 per day from here to take it - thats above and beyond even allowing for a warming month.

Probably best you come back to me and demand an apology on the 22nd or 23rd by which point I think I will see this more clearly, right now I think you are being gung ho, and I am struggling to see the wood for the trees perhaps.

Its also possible I am clinging on for dear life to the hope that we are not 30 years further down the line than I had thought.

It may hinge on our reading of SW'lys: at this time of year I think they tend to be all upside. Inland you usually get clearance and temps can soar; overnight the cloud keeps temps up, and remember that SSTs are still about 1-2C warmer than normal. I'm not sure we need 11.2 from here in by the way, if we assume that after today we're around 10.4 then something around 10.9 should suffice, and tonight / tomorrow still look to be nudging it upwards.

Irresepctive of outcome, as discussed earlier with C, I'd read the current run as a long high-side blip; the outturn for the year will be an interesting indicator, with the nino in abeyance now. If we clear 11, with room to spare, and run high over next winter, then it will be hard to deny a major, and unprecedented, step upwards may well have been taken.

[Snowly does it]

It may hinge on our reading of SW'lys: at this time of year I think they tend to be all upside. Inland you usually get clearance and temps can soar; overnight the cloud keeps temps up, and remember that SSTs are still about 1-2C warmer than normal. I'm not sure we need 11.2 from here in by the way, if we assume that after today we're around 10.4 then something around 10.9 should suffice, and tonight / tomorrow still look to be nudging it upwards.

Irresepctive of outcome, as discussed earlier with C, I'd read the current run as a long high-side blip; the outturn for the year will be an interesting indicator, with the nino in abeyance now. If we clear 11, with room to spare, and run high over next winter, then it will be hard to deny a major, and unprecedented, step upwards may well have been taken.

Yes, year end makes for some interesting conversations and posts methinks!

I base the 11.2 on 10.1 to the 15th (Manley), April is 30 days therefore to exceed 10.6, 11.2 is required (11.1 each day would equal the record) - I agree that a very high outturn for the 16th added in will get us underway ahead.... anyway, remains to be seen

Edited April 16, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Bobby]

Is getting a bit worrying this... relentless exceptional warmth almost every month. I think it's too early after just a short period of time to say that we have entered some kind of "new phase", this recent run of exceptional warmth is just a spike in the slow general warming trend IMO. But if it carries on for a few more years, then maybe... maybe.

[Gavin P]

I'm not going to be around for the run up to May, so when the May CET thread is opened can you put me down for a May CET of 14.7 please?

Cheers.

[Don]

I'm not going to be around for the run up to May, so when the May CET thread is opened can you put me down for a May CET of 14.7 please?

Cheers.

14.7? :lol:

Is getting a bit worrying this... relentless exceptional warmth almost every month. I think it's too early after just a short period of time to say that we have entered some kind of "new phase", this recent run of exceptional warmth is just a spike in the slow general warming trend IMO. But if it carries on for a few more years, then maybe... maybe.

I agree, it is a little worrying. I also think that it's too early at the moment to say that the warming has stepped up a gear, but the signs aren't good IMO (if you don't like warming that is).

[Roger J Smith]

With credits to Mr Data, may I just add this ...

The last time the CET

>>> seemed reasonable was 8 April 2007

>>> appeared beyond the grasp of Craig Evans was 12 April 2007

>>> made Roger's April fool statement appear humorous was 23 April 2007

[Gray-Wolf]

As posted elsewhere, there is a survey of air quality taking place above the pole (the instruments were calibrated over Northern European cities) and the preliminary findings show less particulate pollution both over the pole and over the Northern cities than ever measured before.

We know the impact (post 9/11) on US temps so what if we are to reap the benefits of our 'cleanup' in the northern hemisphere temps this year? (before India and China get up to speed). If some science of warming is to believed then 'global dimming' saved us from as much as 3*c warming so do we now ,globally, acrue this warming?

Even on 71-2000 averages we are currently steaming ahead of past 'averages' (and approaching 3*c) so what's to come?

We are downwind of US / Canadian particulate pollution (and its hygrioscopic condensation nuclii properties) so with less nuclii do we get less cloud (to reflect solar input) and rain (due to less condensation?)

Fun times ahead eh?

Edited April 17, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Cymru]

As posted elsewhere, there is a survey of air quality taking place above the pole (the instruments were calibrated over Northern European cities) and the preliminary findings show less particulate pollution both over the pole and over the Northern cities than ever measured before.

We know the impact (post 9/11) on US temps so what if we are to reap the benefits of our 'cleanup' in the northern hemisphere temps this year? (before India and China get up to speed). If some science of warming is to believed then 'global dimming' saved us from as much as 3*c warming so do we now ,globally, acrue this warming?

Even on 71-2000 averages we are currently steaming ahead of past 'averages' (and approaching 3*c) so what's to come?

We are downwind of US / Canadian particulate pollution (and its hygrioscopic condensation nuclii properties) so with less nuclii do we get less cloud (to reflect solar input) and rain (due to less condensation?)

Fun times ahead eh?

Well, although less cloud and rain would suit me nicely, I see where your coming from.

[Bobby]

As posted elsewhere, there is a survey of air quality taking place above the pole (the instruments were calibrated over Northern European cities) and the preliminary findings show less particulate pollution both over the pole and over the Northern cities than ever measured before.

We know the impact (post 9/11) on US temps so what if we are to reap the benefits of our 'cleanup' in the northern hemisphere temps this year? (before India and China get up to speed). If some science of warming is to believed then 'global dimming' saved us from as much as 3*c warming so do we now ,globally, acrue this warming?

Even on 71-2000 averages we are currently steaming ahead of past 'averages' (and approaching 3*c) so what's to come?

We are downwind of US / Canadian particulate pollution (and its hygrioscopic condensation nuclii properties) so with less nuclii do we get less cloud (to reflect solar input) and rain (due to less condensation?)

Fun times ahead eh?

Fun times indeed. I think it's very likely that our cleaner air is now starting to accelerate the warming, not sure if it's decreasing cloud cover or rainfall though. Our springs and winters do seem to be getting drier and less cloudy, but to me it seems our winters and autumns are getting more cloudy and wet, evening things out, maybe even swinging towards more cloud and rain overall.

Can't prove this though, any one know if we are getting wetter and more cloudy? I would have thought so, never seen so much rain in my life this winter and autumn.

[Stratos Ferric]

...We know the impact (post 9/11) on US temps ...

Actually, I do believe that the effect was global!

[frozencanals]

Hi Folks

I have never entered the debate on global warming and I do not intend to start now, but above there is an interesting statement, namely the possibility that cleaning up the atmosphere is now actually accelerating the warming, if this gathered momentum then where would we be

Just remember there are lies, then there are damming lies, above them come stastics and then top of the pile come expenses, add in a mix of personal agenda, the odd politician (and some are very odd) take away the number you first thought of, now try and figure out where you are...

Cheers

FC

PS please take this in the spirit it was written ie a bit of fun :-)

[Bobby]

Politicians never came up with the idea of global dimming, scientists did. And I don't see why they would make this up.

[frozencanals]

Hi Magpie

Very true, politicians are bandwagon specialists, however I did not say that politicians came up with the idea of Global dimming, I was merely speculating over an opposing bandwagon (to the current green/GW bandwagon) that is rolling along at great speed, and still gaining passengers...

I'll just wait and see what happens... :lol:

Cheers

FC

Edited April 17, 2007 by frozencanals