April CET

[SP1986]

I already see the general trend, however there is nothing exceptional (yet) about this April's temperature. The dryness is exceptional, the temperature is not.

You are right so far, although perhaps I'm wandering off the point a little but the diurnal ranges we encountered at the start of the month could be viewed as exceptional. I have a feel the next few days will be viewed as exceptional in terms of temperature with rather high night minimas. There is therefore the capacity, though perhaps as you suggest not just yet, of some exceptional final collective (temporally), temperatures come the end of the month.

[Gray-Wolf]

You are right so far, although perhaps I'm wandering off the point a little but the diurnal ranges we encountered at the start of the month could be viewed as exceptional. I have a feel the next few days will be viewed as exceptional in terms of temperature with rather high night minimas. There is therefore the capacity, though perhaps as you suggest not just yet, of some exceptional final collective (temporally), temperatures come the end of the month.

I'd agree about the night time mins pulling the temps down but maybe by the end of the month we will not be plagued by such (I see the 00z for sat is sat at 13c). As such 6 or 7 double figure mins would alter things considerably!

[summer blizzard]

I forgot to add last night that there was good ensemble agreement last night for warmth to return from around the 23rd, though only around 20C, not the near record stuff we will see this weekend, i believe that Stratos Ferric would call this a cool spell in an otherwise record breasking, or near record breaking month.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Then comes May, what do you suspect might happen over May if HP influence just keeps pushing all else to our north?

Oh yeah. The Bartlett High. That doesn't bare thinking about. It will cause the Mother of All Warm Air Advection from the Equator all summer long - and well into Autumn - wrecking yet another winter and melting more Polar Ice leaving the World vulnerable for another El Nino and hot summer. Vicious circle.

[Stratos Ferric]

Oh yeah. The Bartlett High. That doesn't bare thinking about. It will cause the Mother of All Warm Air Advection from the Equator all summer long - and well into Autumn - wrecking yet another winter and melting more Polar Ice leaving the World vulnerable for another El Nino and hot summer. Vicious circle.

The Nino tends to follow a reasonably regular cycle of its own Craig. Having just had one this year we aren't likely to have one for a few years now.

I forgot to add last night that there was good ensemble agreement last night for warmth to return from around the 23rd, though only around 20C, not the near record stuff we will see this weekend, i believe that Stratos Ferric would call this a cool spell in an otherwise record breasking, or near record breaking month.

Umm, maybe a merely warm spell in an otherwise spectacularly warm month. All the weathermen this evening have been mentioning temperatures more reminiscent of June: Francis Wilson was reporting a projection of a warm summer for the UK (no news there though, really). All of this with scarcely a raised eyebrow. The professionals, at least, are becoming accustomed to this modern climate.

[Calrissian]

I forgot to add last night that there was good ensemble agreement last night for warmth to return from around the 23rd, though only around 20C,

'only' 20C.

-----------

That is indicative of just how far we have come along in the last decade. 20C is now considered nothing particularly remarkable. Then there are the endless frostless and mild nights.

--

April will be another above average month, and a 10c CET.

Calrissian: too much shorthand..but oh well

[Stratos Ferric]

Here's my early April projection, this based on what looks like a cool projection forwards (the 12z) compared with most recent runs of the GFS model. Obviously the early part (warm) is much more robust than the later part (sustained cool), but even with this back end correction we look like bagging a mild month overall. My hunch would be that this projection comes in too low, but we'll see.

'only' 20C.

-----------

That is indicative of just how far we have come along in the last decade. 20C is now considered nothing particularly remarkable. Then there are the endless frostless and mild nights.

--

April will be another above average month, and a 10c CET.

Calrissian: too much shorthand..but oh well

Probably a good call. Apart from August (hardly a cool month) the current long mild run has invariably returned months in the top 30 of all time. The 30th warmest April came in at 9.5C. 10.0C would make it the fourth warmest of all time. From where we are now, and looking forwards a week, I certainly wouldn't rule out a +10C month. That would put us >8C ahead of the same stage last year. Lots of "ifs" in all this, but on that basis a 11.0C year is already looking like shortish odds.

Edited April 11, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[Calrissian]

Well, I can guarentee you a 11.0+ CET, this April will certainly help that. The only issue for me is just how much further above 11 we might see.

Anyway, April is certainly nice and mild, everything looking quite green and feels like summer a fair bit of the time.

Calrissian: late night wanderings

[Snowly does it]

OK, up to 9.3 (rounded up) on Manley - I would estimate 10.5 or so by Monday and perhaps 10.8 and record levels by Tuesday and from there we'll see if it cools or not.

Still doubt the record will fall at this stage

SF - 10.0 would make April the equal 12th warmest alongside about 6 other '10.0's

[damianslaw]

Well, I can guarentee you a 11.0+ CET, this April will certainly help that. The only issue for me is just how much further above 11 we might see.

Anyway, April is certainly nice and mild, everything looking quite green and feels like summer a fair bit of the time.

Calrissian: late night wanderings

I wouldn't say it feels like summer just yet, the trees are just coming into leaf.

If anything it feels like May everything this year feels as if it is a month ahead in time.

Howevr, I would like to trade in this weather for 2 weeks of cool unsettled conditions and then for pleasant conditions for May.

[Calrissian]

Damien, here in London city, it feels like summer during the day. The fact that the evenings are now reasonably mild, makes it feel even more so.

So, by next week we could be looking at an April average of 11 maybe. Pretty impressive, but with even just a mild rest of the month, I could see your 10..and raise you 1.5.

Calrissian: awaiting LOST 3x16

[Mark Bayley]

looks my 8.6c prediction doesn't look likely

[VillagePlank]

Feeling quietly confident of my flat 10C prediction, this month, shame it's penalty points for me all the way . . .

[Stratos Ferric]

looks my 8.6c prediction doesn't look likely

Not as unlikely as one or two even lower bids, which are starting to seem like they were cast from experience of another world entirely.

[North-Easterly Blast]

We all know that the CET will be well over 10*C after this weekend, but with Philip's site registering 0.5mm so far this month, I wonder what the odds are of this month being the driest April ever recorded in England & Wales, and even more so the driest month ever recorded in the England & Wales Rainfall Series which began in 1766. The record for the driest ever month is currently February 1891 which produced a rainfall average across E & W of just 3.6mm. It's a long shot I know but with runs showing very little low pressure activity near the UK for the forseeable future then the possibility cannot be ruled out.

With the CET well over 10*C at the start of next week then a 10+ April CET must be quite likely now this year. The warmest April in recent years was in 1987 with a CET of 10.3*C. With little sign of anything cooler for much of next week it will even take a pattern change for the April 1987 CET of 10.3 to remain in tact.

[Calrissian]

hmm, I'll certainly see your 10.3 record...and raise you 0.2

The aspect of the lack of rain, I've hardly noticed - not sure what that says about my observations lately.

So, whats clear is that it'll be dry and warm until at least next weekend, taking us to the 20'th. How can the average not now reach 11 for a bit, might it hold even ?

Calrissian: LBC, Iain Lee show 7-10

[Stratos Ferric]

If it's 11 (or more) by the 20th, then an outturn comfortably above 9 is all but a dead cert; the argument really then moves to how far above, and by then, a 10+ would be more probable than not. 10.5 would pretty much guarantee at least 9. From where we are now looking forward it's hard not to see 9.5C and more. The projection I produced yesterday clearly was, as suspected, based on the coldest model run for some time. The cold that was bobbling around for the past month in the +240-360h space has now adopted the winter's second favourite trend: when it does come in to land it heads well to our east. Say what you will about GFS, it's consistent in its errors.

[Kentish Man]

Not as unlikely as one or two even lower bids, which are starting to seem like they were cast from experience of another world entirely.

I suppose my guess of 7.8C would be one of them although it is in fact only slightly below the long term average. It is borne of experience from some of the winters of 20/30 years ago or so when mild winters tended to be followed by cold to average springs. This month is weird, a summer pattern established amazingly early. Coming on the back of so much sustained warmth you have to feel a bit concerned about it all - it just doesn't seem natural to me. A near record breaking month must be on the cards.

[Snowly does it]

Phillip has an unrounded 9.4 to the 12th

13.4 required each day to record 11 by the 20th cf the earlier post of SF

12.2 for 10.5 by this time.

Unlikely looking at the GFS output and the recorded temps of this week, depends how warm the weekend is

[ukmoose]

This list includes 2 very late entries (parmenides3 and Matty M) and one that's so late it's almost early enough for next year (Michael P R...)

7.2: Tamara G

7.2: nin9inch9nails

7.5: Duncan McAlister

7.6: Rollo

7.7: Pudsey

7.8: Gavin P

7.8: Kentish Man

7.9: Blast From The Past

8.0: fishdude

8.1: sundog

8.2: The Pit

8.2: Great Plum

8.3: Snowyowl9

8.3: kelly F

8.3: Mr Maunder

8.3: Terminal Moraine

8.4: snowmaiden

8.4: Stu London

8.4: The Penguin

8.5: Don

8.5: senior ridge

8.5:Michael Prys Rob

8.6: Cymru

8.6: ukmoose

8.6: Bottesford

8.7: eddie

8.7: Cheeky Monkey

8.7: kold weather

8.7: Thundery wintry…

8.8: Mr Data

8.8: Optimus Prime

8.8: Paul Carfoot

8.8: osmposm

8.8: mark bayley

8.9: windswept

8.9: Stargazer

8.9: The Calm before…

9.0: PersianPaladin

9.0: slipknotsam

9.0: North-Easterly Blast

9.0: Joneseye

9.0: Glacier Point

9.1: Steve B

9.1: Anti-Mild

9.1: Somerset Squall

9.1: JACKONE

9.1: WBSH

9.1: stormchaser1

9.1: Megamoonflake

9.2: Intrepid

9:2: David Snow

9.2: Paul B

9.2: West is Best

9.2: fine wine

9.2: acbrixton

9.3: Paul Sherman

9.3: reef

9.3: JohnAcc

9.3:Matty M

9.4: dapick2002

9.4: Mark H

9.4: phil n.warks

9.4: Duncan McAlister

9.4: Scorcher

9.4: Mammatus

9.5: Stephen Prudence

9.6: Breezy Brum

9.6: Stratos Ferric

9.9: snowfluff

10.0: VillagePlank

10.1: Roger J Smith

10.1: mk13

10.3: Timmy H

10.4:parmenides3

10.6: summer blizzard

10.7: Snow-Man2006

10.8: Bessy

11.2: Vince

11.2: Gray-Wolf

12.5: Craig Evans

Still looking horribly warm and dry from my perspective, into next week and well beyond that, sadly. Not how I like my Aprils to be.

I guess we fall very much into two camps now - those of us who would prefer not to see increasing warmth, drought and rapidly increasing CETs each month and actually like some days when it's wet and cold and those of us who want to BBQ every weekend of the year. No doubt which camp are happy this month and I suspect will wear their BBQs out before the year's over.

I'm off to bemoan the fact that the grass at the golf club just isn't growing due to the lack of rain. Enjoy your BBQs this weekend and remember to cook the sausages all the way through.

Regards,

Moose

[Stratos Ferric]

Phillip has an unrounded 9.4 to the 12th

13.4 required each day to record 11 by the 20th cf the earlier post of SF

12.2 for 10.5 by this time.

Unlikely looking at the GFS output and the recorded temps of this week, depends how warm the weekend is

I wasn't saying it would happen. That said, this wekend could easily add almost 1C on its own. The outlook continues to swing around; next week looks, if not actually cool, certainly less extremely warm. There's little or nothing in the offing that looks to me like significant downward moderation. Even now. therefore, I'd lay a marker that says this month will be 9+.

[parmenides3]

Is it just me, or does it look like we have lost a Winter month somewhere along the line? The monthly CETs for March and April would not look out of place in April and May. I wonder if we'll 'gain' a Summer month later in the year to make up for it...

:)P

Oh, and thanks for spotting the late entry, UKMoose.

[Lettucing Gutted]

I wonder if we'll 'gain' a Summer month later in the year to make up for it...

:)P

I hope not. If we gain another summer month we will lose another winter month.

[Snowly does it]

I wasn't saying it would happen. That said, this wekend could easily add almost 1C on its own. The outlook continues to swing around; next week looks, if not actually cool, certainly less extremely warm. There's little or nothing in the offing that looks to me like significant downward moderation. Even now. therefore, I'd lay a marker that says this month will be 9+.

I know you weren't, I was just postulating the required output.

P3 - have to disagree, 7.2 would look VERY out of place in April given the recent trend for warming (0.9 below the 71-00 average) as would the current 9.5 in May (a full 1.8 below the 71-00 average)

Manley (link to Phillip's site here) has the CET to the 13th at 9.5

To get a record April, 11.5 required from here on in - certainly the next 3 days will be a good start but likely falling back after that for a time.

[Stratos Ferric]

I know you weren't, I was just postulating the required output.

P3 - have to disagree, 7.2 would look VERY out of place in April given the recent trend for warming (0.9 below the 71-00 average) as would the current 9.5 in May (a full 1.8 below the 71-00 average)

Manley (link to Phillip's site here) has the CET to the 13th at 9.5

To get a record April, 11.5 required from here on in - certainly the next 3 days will be a good start but likely falling back after that for a time.

As a rule, records will only be broken with sustained warmth, particularly overnight warmth. Thinking back to September, October and January (and November after its cold start) it required a sustained run without any cool weather on the one hand, and some occasional impressive upside on the other, to bag records / very high relative finishes. July was in a different camp altogether; as I recall - though I haven't checked - it was really sustained daytime highs that brought about the record, though at that time of year, with long days, the knock on effect to overnight temps is pretty much hard wired.

I suspect, therefore, that we aren't going to break any records this month, but a continuation of the high-ish finishes looks very likely if we don't see strong indication for sustained cool from the models in the next 3-4 days.

Edited April 14, 2007 by Stratos Ferric