April CET

[SP1986]

Netweather Temp Tracker uses the monthly CET

Philip uses the CET to the day - i.e CET for 1-6 April is less the CET for 1-30 April

Ah got it, thanks

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Cold last 2 nights again. Looks warm for next week but againthe cold/cool synoptics for around 19/20 are in play again. I think the 3rd week of this month will knock back the CET as it will be a fair bit cooler than it should be....maybe straightening it out from next weeks warmth more like. Close to average for me still on the cards.

BFTP

[Snowly does it]

To reach 10.5 and therefore record-type levels by say the 14th, it would require a daily output of something like 11.9/12 (I am using the 14th as a cut-off as it looks on recent runs like a high water mark for temps)

I am very doubtful of a consistent 12 output this week unless we get 'lucky' with overnight cloud cover versus sunny daytimes.

One would imagine some sort of change will follow, again I am doubtful that it would be Bartletty or SW-NE LP tracker oriented given the shape of things thus far (which would probably deliver the maxima and minima required). As such, I think a record April is very doubtful indeed thanks to the low mins for the first week. In fact, I think it will only happen if HP hangs on all month and perhaps orientates to a muggy pump with cloud cover from the South.

Would imagine Manley to be 8.3 or 8.4 to today, Hadley the same (they were identical after 3 days iirc)

[Lettucing Gutted]

The Arctic has totally copped out now. Even the average April is a goner now. The Countryfile forcast shows a self-sustaining high pressure to the south of Britain and an attendant southeasterly CT flow giving 23C and climbing in London. Yuk.

Edited April 8, 2007 by Craig Evans

[Optimus Prime]

Looks like be could slowly be building up to a record breaking heatwave. Watch the CET rise rapidly once we get the high maximas.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The CET after this week should not be exceptional, as the high maxima have been partly offset by low minima. Next week is a different matter; a generally southerly flow should give us near record mean temperatures.

[Optimus Prime]

The only thing that could keep the temperatures a touch lower then we would have got in 2003 is the ground is still quite wet with river levels still high. Could just keep the ground air temperature lower then 77F widely across England.

But I'm sure the concrete jungle of London will come up with some very high temperatures.

Edited April 8, 2007 by Optimus Prime

[Stratos Ferric]

Cold last 2 nights again. Looks warm for next week but againthe cold/cool synoptics for around 19/20 are in play again. I think the 3rd week of this month will knock back the CET as it will be a fair bit cooler than it should be....maybe straightening it out from next weeks warmth more like. Close to average for me still on the cards.

BFTP

Hasn't cold in two weeks' time been THE recurrent theme of this winter though? Two weeks ago it looked like it would be snowing here today: my thermometer is showing 14.9C.

[Optimus Prime]

According to the latest GFS run the period 8th-12th April will have an average temperature off 13.0c. So by the 12th expect the CET to be around 10.1c

[The PIT]

The only thing that could keep the temperatures a touch lower then we would have got in 2003 is the ground is still quite wet with river levels still high. Could just keep the ground air temperature lower then 77F widely across England.

But I'm sure the concrete jungle of London will come up with some very high temperatures.

Pretty dry around here created a lot of dust when I swept up the hedge trimmings this morning. I thought dry ground lost heat quicker than wet. Anyway the concrete jungle of London should set some nice temps.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hasn't cold in two weeks' time been THE recurrent theme of this winter though? Two weeks ago it looked like it would be snowing here today: my thermometer is showing 14.9C.

SF

Just my thoughts. I certainly didn't think it would be cold or wet this coming week hence why I booked my leave a month ago Certainly Jan and Feb were buggered up by the El Nino pattern IMO. However, with my thoughts March was very much back on track with a very close CET like Dec and Nov. I think a cooler pattern is on the cards but of course it could just plunge way out west into the Atlantic and we get caught in a rut.

Just as an aside, note how many folk call this weather 'beautiful' or 'perfect'......a big reason why little will be done to combat so called AGW.!!??

BFTP

Anyone looked at the US.....record cold events still going on....I wished

Edited April 8, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Snowly does it]

Just as an aside, note how many folk call this weather 'beautiful' or 'perfect'......a big reason why little will be done to combat so called AGW.!!??

BFTP

Absolutely Blast - short-sightedness. Nothing will be done whilst John Q Public can have his BBQ and pint in the beer garden in February, it'll be at least a few years before the worse effects get here and by then the scientists will have a magical solution, so everyone is happy, brng on the mild yadda yadda yadda.

Fools I say.

Phillip has the CET to the 7th as 8.4, hardly exciting despite the maxima. This week should see it rise towards 10 before it falls back to somewhere in the 8s for my money. Not looking like a record month to me.

Edited April 8, 2007 by snowmaiden

[summer blizzard]

Just had a look at the ensembles and there is pretty firm agreement of a pattern chane around the 20th, so i was wonderin if somebody could calculate some figures...

If the CET is 10C on the 20th, and the remaining ten days have a CET of 7C, what would the resultant CET be??

If the CET is 11C on the 20th, and the remaining ten days have a CET of 8C, what will the resultant CET be???

That is the range that i think we will be in, i calculate it as between 9C and 11C i think.

[Snowly does it]

If the CET is 10C on the 20th, and the remaining ten days have a CET of 7C, what would the resultant CET be??

If the CET is 11C on the 20th, and the remaining ten days have a CET of 8C, what will the resultant CET be???

For your first one, exactly 9 degrees

For the second exactly 10 degrees

[Bottesford]

I think you'll struggle to convince the general public of Britain to take GW seriously or do anything about it for the reasons said - our weather actually will improve from GW, certainly in the short term. It's going to be hard to convince people to give up their luxuries, big cars, etc. in order to 'keep away' warm, pleasent weather occuring for more of the year.

It's like this:

Choice 1: Carry on as you are doing whatever you like. Keeps your big cars & massive energy usage. Result: BBQs by March; hot, dry & reliable summers; distinct lack of any cold weather to put up with. Or:

Choice 2: Stop using your car, cut down by around 60% your use of energy generally meaning less heating, lighting, tv etc. Result: Its cold from October to April with briefer and unreliable summers.

It's obvious what joe public will pick. Short sighted & selfish yes, but certainly the logical choice for most people. I think a big problem of GW is that the principle sufferers are not the main polluters. NW Europe will benefit from increased crop production, more tourism etc wheras Inuit people from northern Canada will suffer greatly from loss of habitat. Unfortuently the main culprits are not being 'punished' so I think it will be pretty damn hard to change things.

[Optimus Prime]

If the CET is 10C on the 20th, and the remaining ten days have a CET of 7C, what would the resultant CET be??

8.9c

"If the CET is 11C on the 20th, and the remaining ten days have a CET of 8C, what will the resultant CET be???"

9.4c

That's what I would thought it would be closer too.

Edited April 8, 2007 by Optimus Prime

[Snowly does it]

8.9c

"If the CET is 11C on the 20th, and the remaining ten days have a CET of 8C, what will the resultant CET be???"

9.4c

That's what I would thought it would be closer too.

No, thats wrong OP.

if its 10 to the 20th (200 degrees) and 7 for the remaining 10 days (70) - 270/30 = 9

if its 11 to the 20th (220) and 8 for the last 10 days (80) - 300/30 = 10

Phillip has the CET t the 8th as 8.5 so the CET still struggling upwards due to minima. Will now require 12.7 per day to be at record levels by the 16th and the cusp of the possible cooldown. Record still looks highly unlikely to me.

[SP1986]

Whatever it is it'll probably be downgraded by Hadley. :lol:

[SP1986]

A number of years ago if we had a sustained settled spell with warm temps by day no-one would be hyping it up as 'a sign of sub-tropical Britain to come'. Very pleasant weather as it certainly has been recently with the cool night time temps (thankfully) it is nothing out of the ordinary and if we ditched our 'little islander' mentality and looked at the bigger picture we would see our perspective change if we lived in other parts of the world as your example above shows, Fred. :lol:

I'm heartily sick and tired of all this endless speculation about 'UK AGW' and obsession with British temp records falling every time the sun rises above the horizon (quite a normal thing to occur every 24 hrs and the sun does tend to feel warm I find usually )

IMO blame for this ridiculous OTT pre-occupation and obsession stems from sponsored agenda hype by certain political and media, including certain large television companies.

Another sunny day today - hmmn obviously must be caused by global warming.

Pllease - get over it!

Perspective.

Tamara

Tamara I think this is a little OTT, The fact is even way before AGW came into the strong media light, alot of people have liked to see records getting broken (warm and cold) and it's probably a more spiritual thing than a "I want to see the Earth suffer".

[Bobby]

A number of years ago if we had a sustained settled spell with warm temps by day no-one would be hyping it up as 'a sign of sub-tropical Britain to come'. Very pleasant weather as it certainly has been recently with the cool night time temps (thankfully) it is nothing out of the ordinary and if we ditched our 'little islander' mentality and looked at the bigger picture we would see our perspective change if we lived in other parts of the world as your example above shows, Fred.

I'm heartily sick and tired of all this endless speculation about 'UK AGW' and obsession with British temp records falling every time the sun rises above the horizon (quite a normal thing to occur every 24 hrs and the sun does tend to feel warm I find usually )

IMO blame for this ridiculous OTT pre-occupation and obsession stems from sponsored agenda hype by certain 'large' world political organisations and media,including certain large television companies. Cash for questions anyone? Bribes for scientists as a parallel?

Another sunny day today - hmmn obviously must be caused by global warming.

Pllease - get over it!

Perspective.

Tamara

That's pretty arrogant and quite frankly, insane.

The fact is that our climate is warming. The warming seems to be increasing and there'll only be more of it in the future. Temperature records are falling more frequently these days then they were in the past, and well above average temperatures such as what we seeing lately is a sign of what's to come.

True, you can't put any specific weather event down to global warming, only that global warming makes such weather events more likely and more intense.

[Optimus Prime]

IMO blame for this ridiculous OTT pre-occupation and obsession stems from sponsored agenda hype by certain 'large' world political organisations and media,including certain large television companies. Cash for questions anyone? Bribes for scientists as a parallel?

Tamara

That makes a lot of sense in my opinion. Recently there's been record cold and snow in parts of North America and yet I haven't seen anything but how we're all gonna suffer from rising sea levels and droughts unless we all go back to the penny farthing bike, use horses and remove central heating from our houses and live like they did back before the 40's. Or even better it gives governments power to rip us all off with unfair fuel taxes and the media make large companies like Tesco look more ungreen then what they really are, when all they are just trying to do is provide a service people want.

[Stratos Ferric]

For your first one, exactly 9 degrees

For the second exactly 10 degrees

Give a man a bag of grain and he will feed himself for a week...give him a bag of seed and a hoe and he will feed himself for life.

I think you'll struggle to convince the general public of Britain to take GW seriously or do anything about it for the reasons said - our weather actually will improve from GW, certainly in the short term. It's going to be hard to convince people to give up their luxuries, big cars, etc. in order to 'keep away' warm, pleasent weather occuring for more of the year.

It's like this:

Choice 1: Carry on as you are doing whatever you like. Keeps your big cars & massive energy usage. Result: BBQs by March; hot, dry & reliable summers; distinct lack of any cold weather to put up with. Or:

Choice 2: Stop using your car, cut down by around 60% your use of energy generally meaning less heating, lighting, tv etc. Result: Its cold from October to April with briefer and unreliable summers.

It's obvious what joe public will pick. Short sighted & selfish yes, but certainly the logical choice for most people. I think a big problem of GW is that the principle sufferers are not the main polluters. NW Europe will benefit from increased crop production, more tourism etc wheras Inuit people from northern Canada will suffer greatly from loss of habitat. Unfortuently the main culprits are not being 'punished' so I think it will be pretty damn hard to change things.

Thanks heavens, therefore, for elected Government. Given free will most people would not pay taxes; wouldn't drive slowly in built up areas; would park where they felt like parking; would drive and use mobile phones at the same time; would not save for the future; would not take out car insurance...

I also suspect that one or two on here who tend to project their own denial onto the population as a whole are also the same people who tend, often, to have a very narrow view of consequences. If we continue to warm at the recent accelerated rate then there are likely to be some very marked consequences, not all of which are currently knowable, which may serve to focus all of our minds.

It's certainly the case that the net impact on food production is likely to be negative in the first instance IF we get significant drying of the steppes and prairies.

The last thing I am, I can assure you, is arrogant and what I have said above is anything but True, I have certainly expressed some disdain about hype etc but I am entitled to have a different view - nothing arrogant about that, just because it does not fit the 'expected' mould.

Not sure either what is 'insane' about what I have suggested - This is a just a pleasant spring spell of weather and some perspective does have to be kept regarding the GW matter.

Have a good day

Tamara

Tamara,

I think it was more a matter of tone. Your original post did rather read as if you believe that the climate isn't actually warming. Is the media over-hyping the matter? Go and count column inches or airtime minutes: there will still be more coverage of:

- today's sport

- fashion

- Paul McCartney + David Beckham + Jordan + Paris Hilton

- "reality TV" / "I want my fifteen minutes of fame" type programmes...

I think GW has gone from beiong a non-issue to a trendy issue. It seems to rankle with the same people who pander, enlessly, after cold weather. Should we be surprised that these same people would rather not listen to the music?

[The PIT]

Keeping away from the bickering. Climate-UK has the CET at the present value of 8.5C which is 1C degree above normal from the first to the eight. A surprisingly small increase from earlier on so clearly the overnight lows have been lower in the CET area than I expected.

[shuggee]

Can we keep to topic please. April CET is the subject. There are whole sections of the site to go on and on about your opinions on Climate Change folks - please keep them there.

[kold weather]

Wow, I can't believe the CET is only at 8.5C PIT, given the temps we've had i honestly expected about 9-11C in term sof the CET, as I've not been here for about 5 days so. Sayi ng that lookingh at temps this week i find it hard to see the CET not get above 9.5C by next Saturday and I'd guess it could well be a good deal higher, as maxes are progged to get that bit higher again.