April CET

[Snowly does it]

Wow, I can't believe the CET is only at 8.5C PIT, given the temps we've had i honestly expected about 9-11C in term sof the CET, as I've not been here for about 5 days so. Sayi ng that lookingh at temps this week i find it hard to see the CET not get above 9.5C by next Saturday and I'd guess it could well be a good deal higher, as maxes are progged to get that bit higher again.

Minima again Kold, although these are now creeping up, they have prevented much upward movement of the CET, still below last years final outturn for April surprisingly although that will change by the end of the week!

Will April be a record-breaker? For me no it will not. I think it will end up somewhere in the 'yeah, but so what?' range

[MP-R]

I say a mild CET of 8.5C.

[The PIT]

Well Net Weathers has suddenly shot up probably as a result of increased mins more than anything. 8.5C does seem a little low though. Must be cold at night in thsoe central areas.

[noggin]

I guess it's a case of geography. Here in Bristol it hasn't really been that warm apart from Sunday. The rest of the time there has been a bit of a chill in the air, still.

(Bristol being one of the corners of the central England triangle, I believe.......)

[Snowly does it]

Manley via Phillip stands at 8.6, another measly 0.1 rise. Hadley to the 8th was 0.2 higher at 8.7 (Manley 8.5 to the 8th) - this week we should see more of a dramatic rise (last night was rather mild for example) before what I anticipate will be a tail off back to he 8s before month end - perhaps within the reasonable expectations of a 71-00 April.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

My post seemed to stir things up...and on the wrong thread! CET hasn't climbed that high and indeed the mention of a nip in the air especially as we lose the sun is very valid...in fact at night it is pretty cold out in the field. Now a further rise this week but some disappointing (nice) cool and damp weather approaches for the last 3rd of the month (as predicted) and the proposed mid to high 70s set up for the weekend seems to be waning/downgrading. I think 22c will be the max now.

Tamara I see where you are coming from...UK weather has very little if any global reference.

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Fred

Yes, it is no surprise to me either, that the CET has not moved upwards that much. As I have said a few times before, this has just been a pleasant Spring spell of weather with warm days and cold nights and is hardly unprecedented or anything to do with 'modern climate', even taking into account the brief very warm temps expected late this weekend. It makes the progged change still on course for next week to a cooler NW'erly pattern much as one would expect in a typical April too.

My predicted 7.2C for April is obviously going to be wrong! - alas there were good signs for a cold month synoptically towards the end of March when I made the estimate. So it was plausible at that time. However, at the other end of the scale, I am not sure that the endemic monthly hype over records being broken is going to be satisfied either.

Tamara

Hi Tamara

I think mid 8s is looking closest...but depends on how cool it gets. However, as it should be warmer late in the month the coolness needs to get cooler to bring it down so my 7.9C is too low.

BFTP

[Great Plum]

My post seemed to stir things up...and on the wrong thread! CET hasn't climbed that high and indeed the mention of a nip in the air especially as we lose the sun is very valid...in fact at night it is pretty cold out in the field. Now a further rise this week but some disappointing (nice) cool and damp weather approaches for the last 3rd of the month (as predicted) and the proposed mid to high 70s set up for the weekend seems to be waning/downgrading. I think 22c will be the max now.

Tamara I see where you are coming from...UK weather has very little if any global reference.

BFTP

It certainly is very cold in the evenings - had a bbq on Saturday night and it was too cold to be outside comfortably after around 8 pm... (but then again where we are is a frost pocket isn't it? )

Edited April 10, 2007 by Great Plum

[Lettucing Gutted]

by then the scientists will have a magical solution, so everyone is happy, bring on the mild yadda yadda yadda.

Alas I don't think science will save us... I have got a bad feeling about the future. The Methane hydrates will escape into the atmosphere, the world will fly planes like crazy, China and India will start belching greenhouse out of their coal power stations like there's no tomorrow...

[Snowly does it]

Alas I don't think science will save us... I have got a bad feeling about the future. The Methane hydrates will escape into the atmosphere, the world will fly planes like crazy, China and India will start belching greenhouse out of their coal power stations like there's no tomorrow...

Yes, well that was kind of my point - I was being flippant.

End of this week looks like seeing the biggest rises in the CET, after which the likelihood is a flattening and reduction with enselmble mean suggesting a below average spell.

[Stratos Ferric]

Yes, well that was kind of my point - I was being flippant.

End of this week looks like seeing the biggest rises in the CET, after which the likelihood is a flattening and reduction with enselmble mean suggesting a below average spell.

Certainly looks like will be well into the 9s by the end of the w/e. Thereafter, the semi-permanent fantasy feature of the winter does continue to flirt: cold weather in the window 168-360h. GFS has been showing it for almost three weeks now and it still hasn't happened; I suppose the law of average dictates that even in the modern climate, sooner or later we're going to get a one or two day cold burst: that much HAS been a pattern of the winter. However, in what is a warming month I'd be surprise if, once we get above 9C, we fall back below it, unless we do get a sustained spell of cool / cold weather.

[Bottesford]

However, in what is a warming month I'd be surprise if, once we get above 9C, we fall back below it, unless we do get a sustained spell of cool / cold weather.

And more to the point the most rapidly warming month of the year I'd say +9 or more looks a fair bet now.

[SP1986]

And more to the point the most rapidly warming month of the year I'd say +9 or more looks a fair bet now.

Without doubt, it would take come colossal cooling or very low overnight mins for the rest of the month to drive the CET down. If it becomes more unsettled like the GFS suggests, then this will not happen and CET should stay above 9ish.

[mackerel sky]

Its been pretty consistent here in the past 7 days, even with or without stubborn cloud cover, now the cool gusty easterlies of early on in month are a distant memory. Overnight minima have between 2-6.5C and daytime maxima 12-20.5C (it has achieved 17C+ for 5 of those 7 days - only last Wednesday was "cool" as the cloud didn't disperse until 5.30pm, which turned out to be the warmest part of that day) . Given whats in store for the rest of the week I can't possibly envisage a CET much less than 10C, which I'd imagine is unprecendented. I'm pretty sure I live within the eastern part of the CET measurement zone. Those recordings are my own of course and subject to local variations behind my shed where the sensor is, like the dog licking it.

Its going to have be a pretty rubbish second half of the month to get it back closer to where it should be.

Edited April 11, 2007 by mackerel sky

[Stu_London]

Philip's site is now up to 9.0C with the net weather uk temp tracker racing ahead at 9.38C

These look set to rise further by the weekend. However the tale of this anomoly (and that of most of the warm spring/summer months since 2003) is in the sunshine totals - 184% of average - and with more short term sunshine followed by a possible reload (if you believe ECM and UKMO output of yesterday) - records for April will need to have an eye kept on them.

[reef]

Its looks to me like we're almost certain to hit at least 10°C bt the middle of next week if the GFS comes off. Maxima of up to 25-26°C and minima of 7-10°C are going to have a major impact. It all depends on how warm or cool the final couple of weeks are, but needless to say, getting a cold spell of sufficient potency to drive down the figure to anywhere near the 1971-2000 mean will be extremely difficult. Another well above average month to come, without a doubt.

Edited April 11, 2007 by reef

[Stratos Ferric]

Its looks to me like we're almost certain to hit at least 10°C bt the middle of next week if the GFS comes off. Maxima of up to 25-26°C and minima of 7-10°C are going to have a major impact. It all depends on how warm or cool the final couple of weeks are, but needless to say, getting a cold spell of sufficient potency to drive down the figure to anywhere near the 1971-2000 mean will be extremely difficult. Another well above average month to come, without a doubt.

That last statement is an understatement to the power of gross. The forecast cold spell has now drifted away again, currently lurking at t + 300 or so, and is projected to be of far less potency. Just like Christmas, it'll turn up eventually. In the meantime, I am having to rewrite yesterday's script: a CET of 10+ now looks very likely by the end of the w/e, and with no substantial cooling currently projected beyond that the odds on an exceptional April are shortening.

[Snowly does it]

That last statement is an understatement to the power of gross. The forecast cold spell has now drifted away again, currently lurking at t + 300 or so, and is projected to be of far less potency. Just like Christmas, it'll turn up eventually. In the meantime, I am having to rewrite yesterday's script: a CET of 10+ now looks very likely by the end of the w/e, and with no substantial cooling currently projected beyond that the odds on an exceptional April are shortening.

Not so sure about that, the ensemble mean remains around or just above/below average after the coming weekend, I agree 10 plus looks likely by this time and would now think that around 9 - perhaps 9.5 for month end would be a good 'base' to work from, but a record April looks decidedly unlikely unless the GFS mild outlier 00z comes off.

[Bessy]

8.5c with at least one day at or above 70f

*coughs* i think u got that right looks like we may have a few to come too

[Upgrade]

gonna put the cat amongst the pigeons here and go for a record breaker (cue Roy Castle) 11.2

with 80f being topped by the 20th

Looks like Vince could be right!

[damianslaw]

Its looks to me like we're almost certain to hit at least 10°C bt the middle of next week if the GFS comes off. Maxima of up to 25-26°C and minima of 7-10°C are going to have a major impact. It all depends on how warm or cool the final couple of weeks are, but needless to say, getting a cold spell of sufficient potency to drive down the figure to anywhere near the 1971-2000 mean will be extremely difficult. Another well above average month to come, without a doubt.

Yes another well above average CET is likely for the month. How predictable this is all becoming...

Month after month of above average CET and well above at that is not

For me I am most frustrated at present, the fact that we are not even half way through the month and most of us are confident that a well above average CET is likely to be recorded, makes the guessing game of whether a near average average or below average month is likely a very dull one.

I thought if we were going to buck the trend of the last few months then this month was the month that was going to do it. I just did not expect this long sustained warm spell. The British climate contrinues to surprise me I am getting seriously worried about this warming trend of recent years the scale of it is getting out of hand..

[Lettucing Gutted]

Yes another well above average CET is likely for the month. How predictable this is all becoming...

Month after month of above average CET and well above at that is not

For me I am most frustrated at present, the fact that we are not even half way through the month and most of us are confident that a well above average CET is likely to be recorded, makes the guessing game of whether a near average average or below average month is likely a very dull one.

I thought if we were going to buck the trend of the last few months then this month was the month that was going to do it. I just did not expect this long sustained warm spell. The British climate continues to surprise me I am getting seriously worried about this warming trend of recent years the scale of it is getting out of hand..

I think we can wave goodbye by to Sub 10C highs in London till next November unfortunately... London is turning back into "Summer Heat Island" mode again with highs of 20C plus.

[Snowly does it]

Yes another well above average CET is likely for the month. How predictable this is all becoming...

Month after month of above average CET and well above at that is not

For me I am most frustrated at present, the fact that we are not even half way through the month and most of us are confident that a well above average CET is likely to be recorded, makes the guessing game of whether a near average average or below average month is likely a very dull one.

I thought if we were going to buck the trend of the last few months then this month was the month that was going to do it. I just did not expect this long sustained warm spell. The British climate contrinues to surprise me I am getting seriously worried about this warming trend of recent years the scale of it is getting out of hand..

Another way of looking at it is that despite an exceptional spell of settled and warm weather the CET stands just 0.9 above the 30 year mean and 0.2 above its own recent 10 year mean. In other words, to date this April is extremely unremarkable in temperature.

Whether it BECOMES exceptional rather depends on whether the spurious extended heat of the 0z or indeed the 'milder side of ensembles' 06z come off - certainly the CET will be rather high by Sunday of this week and may remain so. Remember though that to be at record levels by (for example) the 20th would require sustained returns of 12.2 and to equal the record month end, 11.4 per day from here, quite possible in the shorter term but a full 0.8 above the old record for 20 days solid? I don't think so

Edited April 11, 2007 by snowmaiden

[Gray-Wolf]

Another way of looking at it is that despite an exceptional spell of settled and warm weather the CET stands just 0.9 above the 30 year mean and 0.2 above its own recent 10 year mean. In other words, to date this April is extremely unremarkable in temperature.

Whether it BECOMES exceptional rather depends on whether the spurious extended heat of the 0z or indeed the 'milder side of ensembles' 06z come off - certainly the CET will be rather high by Sunday of this week and may remain so. Remember though that to be at record levels by (for example) the 20th would require sustained returns of 12.2 and to equal the record month end, 11.4 per day from here, quite possible in the shorter term but a full 0.8 above the old record for 20 days solid? I don't think so

Lets not loose sight of the context of things here. Yes, there is a record temp (CET) for April but how was the preceding year for that record compared with the relentless excesses (in temp) we have had this last 12 months?

Then comes May, what do you suspect might happen over May if HP influence just keeps pushing all else to our north?

What I'm moving towards is what would it take for you to see a worrying trend (without precedent) in our 'local climate'?

[Snowly does it]

Lets not loose sight of the context of things here. Yes, there is a record temp (CET) for April but how was the preceding year for that record compared with the relentless excesses (in temp) we have had this last 12 months?

Then comes May, what do you suspect might happen over May if HP influence just keeps pushing all else to our north?

What I'm moving towards is what would it take for you to see a worrying trend (without precedent) in our 'local climate'?

I already see the general trend, however there is nothing exceptional (yet) about this April's temperature. The dryness is exceptional, the temperature is not.

The preceeding month was not exceptional and the month before that in relation to its 10 year rolling mean was not exceptional. January WAS, December also was although less so and Novmeber again was around its own 10 year mean. That carries us right back to that exceptional Autumn and Summer.

Edited April 11, 2007 by snowmaiden